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Key Takeaways
JPMorgan Asset Management projects 10% compound annual returns for Bitcoin, ahead of stocks and gold.
Matt Hougan celebrated the forecast, although the firm still flags major risks around Bitcoin.
BlackRock has filed for a third Bitcoin ETF, seeking to limit losses in exchange for capped upside.
JPMorgan's asset management arm expects Bitcoin to outperform stocks and gold over the long term, handing crypto supporters a fresh talking point after years of criticism from the bank's chief executive.
The forecast drew a particularly celebratory response from Bitwise investment chief Matt Hougan, as BlackRock separately filed for another Bitcoin ETF aimed at attracting investors worried about sharp losses.
JPMorgan Asset Management's 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions put Bitcoin's expected compound annual return at 10%, compared with 7.5% for US large-cap stocks and just 5.5% for gold.
For Hougan, the inclusion represented another milestone in Bitcoin's acceptance.
"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you'll be the best-performing asset of the next decade," he wrote on X.
He also acknowledged the qualifications attached to the forecast.
"I know, I know: They have loads of caveats and say the asset is still maturing. Nonetheless, it's pretty amazing to see."
The table assigns Bitcoin an annualized volatility of 55%, substantially above the figures for stocks and gold.
JPMorgan also stopped short of incorporating Bitcoin into its main covariance matrices, which help assess how investments behave together in a portfolio.
"The volatility and unstable correlation of assets like bitcoin (BTC) remain an obstacle to their widespread inclusion in portfolios," the firm said.
The forecast has renewed attention to the gap between JPMorgan's expanding crypto business and CEO Jamie Dimon's longstanding personal views.
As CCN previously reported, Dimon called Bitcoin a "fraud" in 2017 and threatened to fire employees trading it.
His criticism continued. In January 2025, he launched another attack, describing Bitcoin as a "Ponzi scheme" and comparing it to a pet rock.
By May 2025, however, Dimon said JPMorgan would let clients buy Bitcoin while maintaining his personal reservations.
"I don't think you should smoke, but I defend your right to smoke," he said.
JPMorgan's forecast stands in sharp contrast to that of longtime Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff, who continues to urge investors to swap crypto for gold.
In an Oct. 14 post on X, Schiff pointed to rising inflation and bond yields as reasons to question Bitcoin's resilience.
"Sell your Bitcoin before the bottom drops out of the market and buy gold!" he wrote.
Schiff has also challenged the idea that greater blockchain adoption necessarily benefits Bitcoin.
As CCN previously reported, he argued that tokenized stocks could compete for investors' money while offering dividends and shareholder rights.
Schiff's latest warning focuses on an approaching market downturn, while JPMorgan's forecast assesses compound returns over 10–15 years.
However, Schiff's warnings form part of a longstanding pattern.
As CCN reported in July, he has made at least 23 public statements declaring Bitcoin "dead" since 2011.
His skepticism also predates the ETF boom.
In November 2023, with Bitcoin approaching $38,000, Schiff warned that the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs would exhaust buying demand and trigger a crash.
"Get ready for a crash," he wrote.
JPMorgan's return assumptions also offer a way to explore Bitcoin's potential future price.
Using a hypothetical starting price of $80,000, a 10% compound annual return would put Bitcoin at approximately $207,500 after 10 years.
Over 15 years, the same growth rate would imply roughly $334,200.
Those figures represent gains of around 159% and 318%, respectively.
It's important to note that these are illustrative calculations based on JPMorgan's return assumption. The actual results will depend on the starting price and on the assumption that the projected compound return is achieved.
However, Bitcoin could fall short if institutional demand weakens, ETF investors withdraw money, or tighter regulation restricts access.
Prolonged high interest rates could also make income-producing investments more attractive, while major exchange failures or security breaches could damage confidence.
Meanwhile, BlackRock has filed for the iShares Bitcoin Managed Protection ETF, with the proposed ticker PBIT.
Importantly, the prospectus says the fund would not invest directly in Bitcoin or Bitcoin exchange-traded products.
Its exposure would instead come through derivatives.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart described the trade-off on X:
"It will offer downside protection but investors will give up some upside to get that protection."
He also highlighted BlackRock's continued focus on the two largest cryptos.
"Notably, this is the third Bitcoin ETF filing from them. Still only have Bitcoin and Ethereum products — no other cryptos."
BlackRock's own Bitcoin journey gives the filing additional significance to the filing.
As CCN previously reported, CEO Larry Fink moved from describing Bitcoin as an "index of money laundering" in 2017 to calling it a "legitimate financial instrument" in 2024.
BlackRock's IBIT began trading in January 2024, giving investors exposure to Bitcoin through a familiar brokerage product.
In his 2025 annual letter, Fink said the product had grown to more than $50 billion in assets in less than a year.
He also said more than half of its demand came from retail investors, with three-quarters of those investors new to iShares products.
For spot Bitcoin funds, sustained net inflows can support demand for the underlying asset.
