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Gold prices are likely to take a breather for the next week or two, but any pullbacks should be seen as opportunities to buy ahead of the 2024 bull market, according to Stewart Thomson, President of Graceland Investment Management.
“The key ‘thrill of victory and agony of very temporary defeat’ weekly gold chart,” Thomson wrote.
He said that broadening patterns are an indication of loss of control in markets. “The wild Sunday night and Monday gold price action is “textbook” for the huge broadening pattern in play,” he said.
Thomson said that while stochastics is now showing a crossover sell signal, RSI is not. “The most likely scenario now is a pause for a week or two, and then another more significant rally to above the immense $2080 ‘line in the sand’,” he said.
He said that investors looking for tactical moves in the current market should consider gold equities. “Gold stock enthusiasts who did some selling into the $2080 gold price area should now focus on buying at $2010, $1985, and $1928.”
Thomson also shared “key buy zones” for the precious metal itself which he said should be the focus for long-term accumulators.
“From the $2145 area high, a drop to support at $2010 is a $130/oz price sale,” he wrote. “A drop to $1985 support is a $155/oz sale, and the $217/oz drop to $1928 support would be a truly epic price sale but this last one is unlikely to happen.”
“I’m not a big fan of sloping trendlines in the gold market, but they are helpful at times,” he added. “Note the green trendlines defining the volatile uptrend. A drop to the lower trendline would put gold at the big $2010-$1985 support area. It’s a ‘must buy’ zone for most gold stock enthusiasts. I call it a golden stocking stuffer for Christmas 2023!”
Looking at the U.S. dollar, Thomson said the DXY chart is indicating “some minor inverse H&S action” which would support a one- to two-week pause for gold.
“US rates aren’t confirming the action in the dollar,” he warned. “There’s a dead cat bounce, but the weekly chart suggests a much bigger dip in rates lies ahead.”
“The bottom line is that 2024 is likely to be a ‘golden year’ for the metals, and rates may stay low until 2026 or 2027 before the US government creates the next massive wave of inflation with its drug-like addiction to fiat, meddling, spending, and debt,” he said. “From there, the Fed would start hiking again and gold would take an initial hit but it would happen from a much higher level than where it is now. How high? Probably $3000+, and at that point, most money managers would have a keen interest in the miners, a ‘here to stay’ interest.”
Thomson concluded with a look at those miners, in the form of “the stunning GDX chart.”
“A textbook inverse H&S pattern (with breakout) is now the head of what could be a much bigger pattern,” he wrote. “While the gold bullion market action is wild, GDX and most gold stocks look great! The right shoulder build could take GDX to just under $29, but it doesn’t need to go that low.”
By
Ernest Hoffman
For Kitco News
