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There is no question that geopolitical uncertainty caused by chaos in the Middle East was the spark that ignited safe-have demand for gold and drove prices up from their seven-month lows; however, there is another factor at play in the marketplace that is helping to support prices at $2,000 an ounce, according to one portfolio manager.
In an interview with Kitco News, Ryan McIntyre, managing partner at Sprott Inc., said that the potential for a credit risk event is also providing solid safe-haven demand for gold and could help propel prices well above $2,000 an ounce.
McIntyre's bullish outlook on gold comes as the precious metal has held its ground, holding initial support this week above $1,950 an ounce even as bond yields remain in striking distance to 5%, their highest level in 16 years.
McIntyre said that one of the reasons why gold's negative correlation to bond yields is breaking down is because more and more investors are becoming worried about the U.S. government's fiscal outlook and the growing debt, which has surpassed $33 trillion.
However, McIntyre added that this is more than just the size of U.S. government debt.
"The most frightening thing for me is the deficit. I am more focused on the trajectory of where things are going," he said. "The rising deficit means the U.S. is not getting its finances in check."
McIntyre also noted that elevated gold prices reflect the growing risk that the U.S. economy faces a potential debt spiral as higher interest rates reflect higher borrowing costs, which precipitates the need for more capital.
He said that he thinks the U.S. is experiencing a slower version of what happened last October when the U.K. bond market was roiled after then-Prime Minster Elizabeth Truss proposed substantial tax cuts to be paid for with higher deficits. The turmoil in British financial markets cost Trust her job as Prime Minister.
One reason why markets are now focusing on the U.S.' growing debt is because of the sharp rise in interest rates. With the Fed Funds rates between 5.25% and 5.50%, the U.S. government is now spending more money servicing its $33 trillion debt than it spends on national defense.
At the same time, McIntyre also noted that along with the Fed's aggressive rate hikes, it has reduced its balance sheet, significantly reducing M2 money supply, the amount of money held by the public.
Traders wait to see if gold can break $2,000 after the Fed holds rates steady
"Because the supply of money is decreasing, asset values are inherently decreasing. You now need more assets to support your credit requirements at higher levels. This is the last thing you absolutely want because it can quickly spiral out of control," he said. "I think this is why investors are turning to gold because they see a stable asset. There is only one safe-haven asset out there if you don't just want U.S. government bonds: that is gold."
While the Federal Reserve remains primarily focused on inflation, McIntyre said they need to be aware of the potential risk that bond yields could become unanchored to monetary policy.
While it may be a little early, the scenario that McIntyre is looking for is where the Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish stance but starts buying bonds, to keep yields in line. He added that the same time, increasing M2 money supply would also help ease market tensions.
However, McIntyre added that the Fed is in a difficult position. Because of rising deficits, the Fed can be seen increasing its balance sheet too much.
"Maybe in the short term, it will have the desired effect. But I think it will make people more nervous. And that's the problem when you lose control," he said. "With all this uncertainty, I think gold will continue to do well and remain in an uptrend until the government can get its spending under control, which isn't likely to happen anytime soon."
By
Neils Christensen
For Kitco News
