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Although the gold market has managed to hold its ground above $2,300 an ounce, it remains trapped below $2,350 an ounce. Although the market is looking a little directionless, one market strategist says it is well-valued with limited downside.
In a recent interview with Kitco News, Joy Yang, Head of Index Product Management & Marketing at MarketVector Indexes, said she expects gold prices to move higher in a stair-step fashion as the price action builds a new base after every rally.
She noted that at the start of the year, gold built a solid floor at $2,000 an ounce, and now nearly seven months later, that floor has moved up by $200.
“Gold is definitely in a new comfortable range, and I just don’t see it going below $2,200 again,” she said. “In another couple of months, I expect we could see that floor move up to $2,400. I just don’t see the risks and factors driving gold really going anywhere in the next few years.”
Gold has been a boring trade, consolidating in a fairly narrow range after hitting a record high above $2,450 an ounce last month; however, Yang said that investors shouldn’t be investing in gold because it's an exciting momentum trade. She added that it’s not gold’s role to compete with stocks like NVIDIA or volatile meme stocks.
“Investors who buy and hold gold are more macro-focused,” she noted, emphasizing that gold serves as a long-term store of value amidst market frothiness.
Yang said that generalist investors interested in adding some gold to their portfolio should look at who is already buying the precious metal to help them manage their expectations. For more than two years, the biggest gold buyers have been global central banks.
“Like if you look at why central banks are holding gold, it's really to hedge their position, to diversify their portfolio,” she said.
Yang added that she doesn’t expect central banks will stop buying gold as they continue to move away from the U.S. dollar due to the size and trajectory of the government’s debt. She explained that the higher the debt goes, the more difficult it becomes for other nations to carry that burden.
She also said that as the November 2024 U.S. election approaches, it is clear that neither major political party has a plan for addressing the burgeoning debt. The Democratic Party wants to keep spending to support social programs, while Republicans want to drastically slash taxes.
“In the end, it’s all the same. We have this enormous U.S. dollar debt out there people will have to reprice,” she said. “Somebody still has to buy all this debt. But I think the rest of the world is trying to make sure they're not as dependent on the U.S. dollar. For them, gold offers another opportunity to hold an asset that is still a pretty significant store of value for them,” she said.
Although central banks have been the dominant force in the gold market, Yang said that she expects that Western investors will eventually have their turn.
She said that she expects gold’s next rally to come after the Federal Reserve makes it clear that it will lower interest rates. Currently, markets are pricing in a more than 60% chance that the U.S. central bank will start its easing cycle in September.
Kitco Media
Neils Christensen
