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Prices fell as low as $2,395 an ounce on Friday, down from a high of $2,475 an ounce on Thursday. The latest losses come in the context of a fresh all-time high of $2,484 an ounce seen on Wednesday, which came as the markets reacted to softer than expected inflation in June and a strengthening of expectations that the US Fed will start to cut interest rates in September.
KAU/USD 1-hourly Kinesis Exchange
The US dollar strengthened against other major currencies on Thursday and Friday after data showed that manufacturing in the US mid-Atlantic region increased more than expected in July after a surge in new orders.
A stronger US dollar makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive for buyers in other currencies, weakening demand and contributing to gold price weakness.
Gold’s fall through the second half of the week means the yellow metal has re-visited the price levels of $2,400 an ounce seen in the previous week ending July 12.
Despite gold’s price slump this week, from a technical standpoint, the charts suggest a cautiously bullish outlook. This is based on a combination of prices testing support at around $2,300 an ounce multiple times in May and June, and successively higher peaks seen in April, May and July. Taken together, these price movements indicate a solid support base and a willingness to test further upside.
On the political front, the uncertainty level was cranked up a notch over the weekend after US President Joe Biden announced he would be stepping down from the presidential race ahead of the November 5 election, leaving questions over who will lead the Democrats’ re-election bid. A growing number of senior Democrats are backing vice-president Kamala Harris, according to news reports over the weekend.
Looking ahead, Tuesday will see the release of Euro Area consumer confidence figures for July, while a flurry of industry and manufacturing figures are due out on Wednesday next week, including from Japan, India, the Euro Area, UK and US.
The markets will also be watching out for Wednesday’s interest rate decision by the Bank of Canada, which is expected to cut rates to 4.5% after a cut to 4.75% in June from the previous 5%. The upcoming decision comes in the context of a start to rate cuts by other central banks, including the ECB in June. Meanwhile, the Bank of England has yet to start cutting rates, while the US Fed is widely expected to make cuts in September.
