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Gold futures saw modest gains on Monday, primarily driven by a weakening dollar. As of 4:15 PM ET, the most active August gold contract settled at $2,345.90, up $11.20 or 0.48%. The dollar index declined by 0.35% to 105.491, contributing significantly to gold's upward movement.
Investors are bracing for a busy final week of the month, with several crucial economic reports on the horizon. The Conference Board's June Consumer Confidence report, due Tuesday, is expected to show a slight decline to 100, down two points from the previous month.
Thursday will bring a flurry of economic data. The Commerce Department is set to release its third and final revision of the first-quarter GDP, projected to remain steady at 1.3%. Additionally, advance readings for May's goods trade balance and wholesale inventories will be published. Analysts anticipate a 0.1% decline in durable goods orders.
The week's most anticipated report is the May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data from the Commerce Department. According to a Reuters poll of economists, the headline PCE is expected to remain unchanged month-over-month while showing a 10-basis-point decrease to 2.6% annually.
Investors will closely monitor the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Forecasts suggest monthly and annual readings of 0.1% and 2.6%, respectively, both lower than April's figures.
Several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak throughout the week. Mary Daly, president and CEO of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, addressed the San Francisco Commonwealth Club, emphasizing the need for higher interest rates to curb demand and inflation. Her remarks will be followed by speeches from Fed governors Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman later in the week.
While economic reports and Fed comments will largely influence gold prices, the CME's FedWatch tool indicates that traders currently see a 67.7% probability of a rate cut in September.
Kitco Media
Gary Wagner
