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US intelligence services are assuming that Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing for time in the war against Ukraine. No major territorial gains are to be expected in the foreseeable future, but the risk of escalation is high.
No major military successes are in sight for Putin - time will tell who has the staying power in Ukraine.© AP/Sputnik/Alexei Nikolsky
"Putin is most likely speculating that time is working in his favor and that prolonging the war, including possible lulls in fighting, might be his best remaining avenue to eventually secure Russian strategic interests in Ukraine - even if it takes years." , US intelligence coordinator Avril Haines said at a Senate hearing in Washington.
Military goals increasingly modest Although it is not assumed that the Russian military will recover sufficiently this year "to achieve greater territorial gains", the Kremlin chief now probably understands the limits of what his military can achieve better, which is why he is cautious for the time being focus on more modest military goals.
However, Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin most likely assumes that time is on his side. Therefore, he could prolong the war to secure "Russia'sBANG Showbiz Vladimir Putin wants to restore the old Warsaw Pact strategic interests in Ukraine". According to Haines, there may also be "potential pauses" during the conflict.
High losses, hardly any territorial gains
A striking example of the Russian army's lack of penetrating power is the battle for the town of Bakhmut. Russian troops have been trying to seize the area for around nine months - and have suffered massive losses themselves in the process. But even the now imminent capture is unlikely to change much on the front line.
The fortifications west of Bakhmut, including the towns of Konstantinivka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, would withstand a Russian advance for at least several more months. Kramatorsk is about three times the size of Bakhmut and used to be the headquarters of the Ukrainian armed forces in Donbass.
According to US estimates, Russia does not want a direct confrontation with the USA or NATO - but the risk cannot be completely ruled out, as the US broadcaster CNN reports, citing a US intelligence document. So far, however, the Russian leadership has not taken any actions that would widen the conflict beyond Ukraine's borders, the report said.
