Ruble exchange rate forecast for autumn. Devaluation, Sequestration, Taxes

 2 min read
 Content
Cash turnover
Ruble's exchange rate?
Business has already learned how to work within the country for clean cash, and make cross-border transfers in cryptocurrency. rub

It is known that in Russia there are two possible scenarios for the development of events: the worst and the most unlikely.

Russia has been at the forefront of finance since the beginning of 2020. According to this indicator, our country even managed to catch up and overtake the United States. The Russian manufacturer of pulp and paper products, the Goznak factory, has become a world leader. And although in terms of the volume of money printing it is still far from the American counterparts from the FRS, Russia is already ahead in terms of growth rates.
Now the volume of the cash money supply in the country has reached an absolute maximum in the recent history of Russia and amounts to 12.4 trillion rubles.

Moreover, interestingly, the entire new issue consists exclusively of 5-thousandth notes. Their share in money circulation exceeded 77%.

This suggests that the demand for large bills did not arise in small retail and not in the pockets of Russian pensioners, of whom there are more than 46 million people in the country, and also not in the pockets of schoolchildren, students and the poor who hold such a bill in their hands. a couple of times a year.

Cash turnover
The cash flow went directly to the half-dead economy. And if before the corona crisis, it was believed that the gray economy in Russia is from 30 to 40% of GDP, now we can confidently talk about overcoming the 50% bar.

And although in early summer the Central Bank assumed that the demand for cash would return to normal volumes after the quarantine was canceled, it is now clear that it is not possible to control the growth in demand for cash.

People intuitively choose the most reliable ways to keep their savings. Moreover, both enterprises and citizens.

Cash has essential features of a cryptocurrency, such as anonymity, no taxes, speed of transactions - transferred a bag of money - 1 second faster than a bank payment.

cryptocurrency

Ruble's exchange rate?
How will this affect the ruble exchange rate and household income?

Now, thanks to quarantine, six months ago, the country's surplus budget is missing every third ruble. The situation is especially difficult in the regions.

Thus, the budget deficits, which have so far been filled by taxes on personal income, are missing more than 50% of the funds.

What are the solutions to this problem?

Sequestration of the budget
Devaluation of the national currency
Increased tax burden combined with increased tax collection
The cost of solving the financial problems of the NWF
Putting under control all the financial resources of citizens, including through financial and monetary reform.
Now rank all the listed measures, based on the formula given at the beginning. Which option will you choose? Worst or unlikely?

Do not forget to consider that we live in a new paradigm: People are new oil. Naturally, all issues will be resolved at the expense of the population.
And the fifth point is basic. Cash helps to get around it, but when they realize that this item did not work, it will go to everyone else.

Business has already learned how to work within the country for clean cash, and make cross-border transfers in cryptocurrency. But when the situation worsens, soon, despite the ban on crypto circulation in the country, citizens will also want to pay with cryptocurrency for purchases and among themselves.

Stay in touch.

Bookmark my blog for the most truthful and expert informatio