The federal government ensured that people enrolled in Medicaid could maintain their coverage for the duration of the COVID-19 public health emergency (PHE). Now, with the PHE officially over, states are restarting their processes of periodically redetermining eligibility for Medicaid. States began assessing eligibility for the 87 million Medicaid enrollees as early as February, and most states started disenrolling people by June. As of late July, almost 3.8 million people had lost their coverage.

Overall, an estimated 15 million people are expected to lose Medicaid coverage during the redetermination process. Some of these individuals will qualify for no or low-cost premiums in the health insurance marketplace; others have enrolled in another health insurance plan during the pandemic. Some are still eligible for Medicaid but may lose coverage for administrative reasons, including not having a current address on file, submitting an incomplete renewal application, not applying for a renewal, or submitting a late application. These are called procedural or administrative terminations, and many individuals who lose coverage this way may resume Medicaid coverage after a period of being uninsured. For people in states that have not expanded Medicaid eligibility under the Affordable Care Act, there are few affordable coverage options.