WILLIAM SUBERG

Don't expect retail sell-off to crash Bitcoin price — analyst

High-volume candles associated with Bitcoin price dips already occurred on derivatives exchanges this time round, Willy Woo notes.

MARKETS NEWS

Those expecting another Bitcoin (BTC) speculative price dip are looking in the wrong place, one of the industry's best-known analysts suggests.

In a Twitter discussion on Dec. 20, Willy Woo, creator of on-chain data resource Woobull, said that popular retail exchanges will not spark a further BTC price rout.

U.S. retail stays calm throughout the rout

Woo was debating the odds of fresh downside with veteran trader Peter Brandt, a commentator revered for calling Bitcoin price bottoms in recent years.

Brandt argued that volume spikes that accompany price crashes have been absent in December versus previous episodes. As such, the "real" capitulation phase is yet to occur.

Responding, Woo argued that speculative derivatives traders had featured in the cascade to $41,800 earlier this month, while retail investors continued to hold BTC. As such, volume data from Coinbase or other retail platforms does not serve as a suitable indicator for an imminent dip.

"That’s a Coinbase chart, sell pressure has been from deleveraging on futures markets, also more on Asian spot exchanges," he wrote.

"Overall no signs yet of an on-chain sell off (HODLers holdling, speculative investors took profits). Effectively a consolidation under weak December liquidity."

Implications of volume

Key bottoms in $BTC have occurred with high volume panic capitulation

That has (yet???) to happen

Thoughts??? pic.twitter.com/dYmDNADxuP

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) December 20, 2021

Brandt appeared to acknowledge the nuance.

Open interest creeps higher

As Cointelegraph reported, meanwhile, retail traders have been buying throughout the past several weeks, as evidenced by wallets with 1 BTC or less adding to their balances.

Related: Bitcoin wobbles below $46K as 1 BTC passes 800K Turkish lira for the first time

With whales biding their time, derivatives appear to be regaining confidence, with Bitcoin futures open interest steadily rising since the dip.

Bitcoin futures open interest chart. Source: Coinglass

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, meanwhile, is trading at its biggest-ever discount to net asset value in history this week