Could El Niño Mean No Atlantic Hurricanes This Year?

September has long been the peak of Atlantic hurricane activity, but this year has defied that script. For the first time in roughly three decades, there hasn’t been a single Atlantic hurricane in September. While it’s still early to draw sweeping conclusions, meteorologists point to a combination of climate signals—chief among them El Niño—as a key driver behind the unusual quiet. Here’s what that means, and why it matters beyond just a calendar flip.

What El Niño does to the Atlantic

El Niño is a warming phase of the tropical Pacific that reshapes weather far beyond that region. In the Atlantic, it tends to raise the level of wind shear—the difference between winds at high and low altitudes. This shear can tear apart developing tropical systems, making it harder for a cluster of thunderstorms to organize into a named storm or hurricane. In practical terms, the atmosphere becomes less forgiving for a hurricane’s birth and growth.

In addition to stronger upper-level winds, El Niño can alter moisture and convection patterns across the tropics and subtropics. Cooler, drier air sometimes pools in the Atlantic, further suppressing the conditions that fuel rapid storm intensification. Taken together, these factors help explain quieter September activity during El Niño episodes, even when sea surface temperatures remain relatively warm.

Other factors shaping the season

• Warm waters still matter, but if wind shear and dry air dominate, storms struggle to organize despite warmth.
• Dust from Africa can suppress storm formation by stabilizing the atmosphere and limiting convective development. Fluctuations in dust levels can tilt the odds toward or away from hurricanes.
• These waves are the seeds for many Atlantic storms. Their potential to spark activity depends on the surrounding atmospheric environment; under strong El Niño and high shear, those seeds may fail to germinate into named storms.
• The MJO’s phases modulate convective activity on weekly to monthly timescales. When the MJO aligns with unfavorable conditions in the Atlantic, storm formation can be suppressed; when it aligns favorably, activity can rebound.
• While El Niño is a natural cycle, climate change adds complexity by altering baseline temperatures and atmospheric stability. The interplay means nothing is guaranteed for any given month or season.

What this lull could mean for the rest of the season

Even with a quiet September, the Atlantic season isn’t over. El Niño’s influence can persist into the fall, potentially keeping activity below average for several weeks. However, historical patterns show that late-season storms occasionally form in October or November, especially if local sea temperatures spike or wind shear relaxes temporarily. The take-home: a quiet September lowers the odds of a dramatic spike, but it does not eliminate the possibility of late-season development altogether.

Implications for businesses and communities

• A lull in major storms can ease short-term costs, but insurers and businesses should avoid complacency. A single storm can cause disproportionate damage, and late-season activity remains possible.
• Resources should still be allocated for resilience, especially for flood management, drainage, and emergency response planning in vulnerable regions.
• Fewer direct hurricane impacts can stabilize coastal tourism and shipping routes in the near term, but volatility in weather patterns can still affect energy supply and demand, as well as price spreads for commodities sensitive to weather risk.
• The current climate signals underscore the value of flexible, scenario-based planning. Companies with contingency plans for varied weather outcomes—ranging from mild to active hurricane seasons—will be better positioned to navigate shifting risk profiles.

Bottom line

El Niño is a powerful moderator of Atlantic hurricane activity, and its influence helps explain September’s unprecedented quiet. That said, the Atlantic remains capable of surprises, and late-season storms are part of historical reality. For marketers, investors, and coastal communities, the key takeaway is to stay informed, keep contingency plans ready, and view the season as a dynamic puzzle—one where El Niño is a major piece, but not the entire picture.

Thomas Prendergast (clone)
By his direction