Why Trump's Reelection is Looking More Likely
By Michael A. Robinson

I'll never forget sailing with my buddies on San Francisco Bay back in the summer of 2016.

Both are high-tech investors who were absolutely convinced that Donald J. Trump had exactly zero chance of becoming president.

But I strongly disagreed. That's because I follow these things closely since big political elections can affect the stock market, not to mention every sector of the economy, including high tech.

On top of all that, I was a young auto analyst in Detroit back in 1980 when Ronald Reagan was elected. I personally talked with union members who crossed party lines and helped put Reagan in the White House.

I told my sailing buddies that the same dynamic was at work in 2016. I didn't just predict that Trump would win, I walked them through several of the key districts and showed them exactly how he would do it.

Here I go again...I believe that Trump now has a much better chance of getting reelected than he did before the Democratic-led impeachment hearings began.

I say that knowing full well that this morning the House unveiled articles of impeachment that will almost certainly Impeach Trump. But I don't see the Republican-controlled Senate convicting the 45th president and removing him from office.

If you have followed along with me for any time at all you already know I'm a big believer in data. That and being consistent.

By citing results from polling firm Rasmussen Reports, I am doing both. I have checked that source at least once a week for more than a decade - including the entire tenure for Barrack Obama.

When the House impeachment hearings began last month, Trump's approval rating was hovering around 46%. Last Friday, it rose to 52% among likely voters, those who actually have a track record of casting ballots.

Yes, that's just one day and it will likely fall a bit in the days ahead. But it came right on the heels of the televised impeachment hearings that should have driven down the president's poll numbers.

Bear in mind that Trump has tied or outpolled Obama on Rasmussen for much of this year. And Obama went on to win reelection in a walk.

Here's what voters will have to ask themselves; do they want to replace an impeached president with a strong economy at his back for an unproven leader?

Let's be clear about something. Despite our trade war with China and concerns about slowing economic growth, the stock market keeps hitting new highs.

Then again, as I have been saying for some time now, the economy is in overall good shape. I have repeatedly told you to ignore the stories we have seen over the last year suggesting a recession was at hand.

I did so in a chat we had back on Oct. 21. 

And now the esteemed Wall Street Journal agrees with me. The headline in last Friday's edition said it all: "Strong U.S. Hiring Eases Concern About Economy."

Make no mistake. The jobs picture is great right now, the best we have seen in 50 years. In November, U.S. employers added 266,000 jobs.

A couple of key data points are very bad news for the Democrats. The reason: their constituent groups are doing great. Hispanics have a jobless rate of 3.9%, adult women come in at 3.5% and for Asians it is now just 2.5%.

A bigger problem for those who want to send the polarizing Trump packing is how well blacks are doing. The jobless rate for African Americans remains at 5.5%, its lowest figure ever.

No wonder Robert Johnson, the founder of Black Entertainment Television (BET), told CNBC on Nov. 29 that no current Democratic contender can beat Trump.

I believe billionaire Robert Johnson's views are very important. He's a lifelong Democrat who has praised Trump for helping African Americans make strong economic gains.

Like me, Johnson has hard data on his side. A recent poll by NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist show Trump's approval among non-whites at 33%. That's just a hair over double what we saw for George W. Bush, who won a second term in a close election.

Add it all up and you can see why at this stage I believe Trump has a good shot at getting reelected.

No, the blazing returns of the last three years may not materialize again. But if Trump stays in the White House, I do think the markets will do well.

And if he actually comes to favorable terms on trade with China in the months ahead, we may be off to the races once again.