Currently, 40 percent of American adults have obesity, and 18 percent have severe obesity...

One in two American adults will have obesity within 10 years, and one in four will have severe obesity, which typically means carrying around more than 100 pounds of excess weight, according to a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM).

The study also estimates that no state, including Minnesota, will have an adult obesity rate of less than 35 percent by 2030, and more than half of the states — 29 — will have a rate greater than 50 percent.

Just seven years ago, no state had an adult obesity rate above 35 percent.

Currently, 40 percent of American adults have obesity (defined as a body mass index, or BMI, of 30 to 34.9), and 18 percent have severe obesity (a BMI of 35 or higher), the study’s authors estimate.

A report published earlier this year put Minnesota’s adult obesity rate at 30.1 percent. The NEJM study predicts the state’s rate will jump to 46.1 by 2030. It also predicts that the state’s severe obesity rate will reach 20.4 percent.

These grim predictions have major health and economic implications. People with obesity, especially severe obesity, are at increased risk for many health problems, including high blood pressure, coronary heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, certain cancers (including breast, colon and kidney), osteoarthritis and clinical depression.

Obesity is estimated to cost the U.S. economy at least $149 billion each year in increased medical expenses — half of which is paid for by Medicare and Medicaid. Minnesota’s obesity-related health care costs are estimated at $3.2 billion annually.

An alarming trend

On all those levels, the study’s findings are alarming, particularly the speed at which Americans are putting on excess pounds.

“Severe obesity has typically been a rare condition. But we find that it’s growing pretty rapidly in a lot of states..

Indeed, some states, most notably Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, Oklahoma and West Virginia, will likely have obesity rates nearing 60 percent in 10 years, the study predicts.

Ward and his colleagues also predict that by 2030 severe obesity will be the most common BMI category nationally among women, black adults and those with an annual household income of less than $50,000.

And that will be true across the country.

“We find that for very low-income adults — adults with less than $20,000 annual household income — severe obesity will be the most common BMI category in 44 states — basically, everywhere in the country,