Posted by Chuck Reynolds on April 14, 2017 - 1:47pm

Long Term Bitcoin Analysis

  

Bitcoin (BTC) extended

upside movement against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday to a weekly high of 1229, rallying the price of BTC/USD to more than 1200, the psychological number, as Japan legalized the cryptocurrency as online payment method while Russia is also mulling over to authorize the cryptocurrency. The technical bias however, remains bearish in near term.

Russia Intercedes into the Crypto World

Russia is mulling over to regulate the digital currency. Russian Deputy Finance Minister Alexey Moiseev told Bloomberg in an interview this week that the authorities hope to recognize bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as a legal financial instrument in 2018 in a bid to tackle money laundering.

“The state needs to know who at every moment of time stands on both sides of the financial chain,” Moiseev told Bloomberg. If there’s a transaction, the people who facilitate it should understand from whom they bought and to whom they were selling, just like with bank operations.”

Increasing state regulations around bitcoin could make the cryptocurrency an attractive investment for investors who previously remained cautious due to the high risk and price swings.

Technical Analysis

As of this writing, BTC/USD is being traded around 1170. A 4-Hourly support may be seen around 1135. A major support however still holds around 1060 which is 50% Fibonacci level as demonstrated in the given below 4-hour chart with green color. EMA 200 is pushing upward on a short-term bias after a test at 1135. Trendline in red color is still major and effective as sellers gain momentum. A break and 4-Hourly closing below the 1135 support shall incite renewed selling pressure, validating a move towards 1060, the 50% fibonacci retracement and then a retest of the trend line around 950.

On the upside, bitcoin is expected to face a hurdle near 1230, a key horizontal resistance area ahead of 1300, the psychological number which is also the high of April 2017. The technical bias shall remain bullish as long as the 1135 support area is intact as mentioned before.

What to expect in Long-Term?

In long-term, a pull back will retest the trend line around 950 is very much expected. RSI (25) provides an extra conformation as it is heading lower sharply.

How to Trade BTC/USD in near future?

Selling BTC/USD below the 1135 support level can be a good strategy with stops being placed above 1180. Similarly, buying BTC/USD above 1200 level can be a good idea with stops being placed right below the 1135 support.

Chuck Reynolds
Contributor