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Gold Price News: Gold Ticks Higher, Eyes on Central Bank Rates
Gold prices rose on Tuesday to reclaim the $2,400 an ounce level, as the markets looked ahead to interest rate decisions by central banks.
Gold traded in a range of $2,377 to $2,411 an ounce on Tuesday, posting modest gains compared with Monday’s range of $2,374 to $2,401 an ounce.
Prices had started the week in a decidedly subdued mood, compared with the previous week’s volatility when prices pushed above $2,430 an ounce only to crash back down to around $2,350 an ounce by the end of the week.
Prices continued to look range bound for most of Tuesday, but the late afternoon saw prices top the $2,400 an ounce level, rebounding from Monday’s dip.
Euro Area GDP figures for Q2 came in on Tuesday, showing an increase of 0.3%, only slightly above expectations of 0.2%. Meanwhile, the US JOLTs job openings figures were released for June, showing a slightly larger number than the market had expected. Read More
Silver Price News: Silver Nudges Higher Ahead of Interest Rate Decisions
Silver prices edged higher to go above the $28.00 an ounce level on Tuesday, helped by gold prices, which rebounded after a subdued start to the week.
Silver prices pushed up to $28.45 an ounce on Tuesday, compared with around $27.93 an ounce in late trades on Monday.
The latest uptick for silver follows a markedly bearish second half of July, after prices traded as high as $31.80 an ounce earlier in the month.
Central bank monetary policy comes to the fore this week, with the US Fed widely tipped to maintain the current 5.5% interest rate in a decision expected on Wednesday, with a first rate cut expected in September. The Bank of England is also set to make a decision on interest rates on Thursday, with mixed views in the market on whether it will start to lower rates at this point from the current 5.25%.
For the time being, silver has been unable to break out of a downward-sloping price channel that started in late May, suggesting a potential to test further downside at around $27.00 an ounce in the short-term. Read More
Gold Price Forecast – August 2024
Gold hits another all-time high above $2,483/toz in July as flows remain supportive.
Markets price in further easing of US rates for the remainder of 2024, softening the USD.
Gold now appears to be trading in a slightly widening ascending channel.
Gold hit yet another all-time high above $2,483/toz during July, with the attempted assassination of former President Trump appearing to give the precious metal a significant, if temporary, boost. At the time of writing, much of these gains have been retraced, although this still leaves gold 0.4% higher month-on-month.
We discuss the most recent macroeconomic support for gold in detail below, but clearly, the precious metal continues to enjoy flow support from several sources. While the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) appears to have made no net purchases for two months in succession (May & June) the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recorded its largest monthly purchase of gold in almost two years in June. Read More
Silver Price Forecast – August 2024
Despite a more challenging market, investor demand for silver seems resilient.
China’s Third Plenum offers mixed support for silver consumption.
Silver is currently trading between proximate major support and resistance levels.
Silver has made marginal gains over the last month, despite benefiting somewhat from the easier rate environment that has supported gold but leaving the gold/silver ratio above 82. The weak economic momentum noted in the previous Forecast has continued with weak manufacturing PMIs being registered in the Eurozone, the US, Japan and China.
The weaker-than-expected Q2 China GDP print was particularly troubling and prompted a surprise token rate cut from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). Overall, the data suggests net positive economic surprises in the Eurozone are at a 7-month low, the global economy at a 12-month low and the US has posted a small recovery from a near-2-year low. The weak picture has bolstered the case for rate cuts later in the year.
We noted in last month’s Forecast that silver investment demand had appeared to be resilient in the face of disappointing performance, and this seems to have continued in recent weeks. Read More
Gold prices holding above $2,400 but largely ignores drop in US ADP employment to 122K
The gold market is once again above $2,400 an ounce but is struggling to attract more interest, even as momentum in the U.S. labor market slows sharply, with the economy creating fewer private sector jobs than expected in July.
On Wednesday, ADP reported that 122,000 jobs were created this past month, missing expectations as consensus forecasts predicted job growth of around 147,000.
At the same time, wage growth is also starting to slow, easing inflation fears.
“With wage growth abating, the labor market is aligning with the Federal Reserve's effort to slow inflation,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. “If inflation rises again, it won't be because of labor.” Read More
Gold price holding near session highs as Pending Home Sales Index rises 4.8% in June
The gold market is holding near session highs even as the U.S. housing market gets some good news, with consumers appearing to be re-entering the market, according to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
The U.S. pending home sales index rose by 4.8% in June, the NAR announced Wednesday, after May’s upwardly revised decline of 1.9%. The data was much better than forecasts, as economists were expecting to see a 1.4% increase.
"The rise in housing inventory is beginning to lead to more contract signings," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "Multiple offers are less intense, and buyers are in a more favorable position." Read More
Precious metals buck commodity slide as imminent rate cuts boost gold ETFs – Saxo Bank’s Hansen
Even as commodities have given back all of 2024’s gains, precious metals have continued to shine, and now ETF investors are showing renewed interest in gold, according to Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank.
“[T]he commodities sector has erased this year’s gains amid China growth worries, a sharp sell-off in energy led by natural gas, and weakness across industrial metals, with copper suffering a major round of long liquidation from investors due to a mismatch between weak short-term fundamentals and an overriding positive long-term outlook,” Hansen wrote in a report published Tuesday. “Additionally, crop-supportive weather across the northern hemisphere has raised the prospect of another bumper crop production season.”
“These developments have caused the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index to suffer a 5% setback this month, leaving the index close to flat on the year, with the only sector barely in the black this month being precious metals, thanks to gold’s continued resilience amid a number of different supportive developments.” Read More
Gold/silver ratio to fall to 75 points by year end - Bank of America
The recent significant profit-taking in gold had an outsized effect on silver prices; however, volatility in the market is starting to calm down, with growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by the end of the quarter.
In this environment, commodity analysts at Bank of America, led by precious metals analyst Michael Widmer, expect silver to find its footing and once again outperform the yellow metal.
Although silver is more volatile because it is a smaller market, Widmer, in the report published Wednesday, said it appears to have stronger fundamental support.
“While 3-month implied gold volatility trades at around half the level of silver, gold risk reversals (calls minus puts) have periodically rallied in recent months, before giving back gains as the Fed has yet to embark on an easing cycle. Silver's risk reversal has pushed higher since spring and has remained elevated, reflecting the stronger fundamental outlook for the white metal,” he said in the note. Read More
US debt surpasses $35 trillion as calls to back the USD with Bitcoin and gold intensify
The U.S. just reached a historic milestone – though the development is nothing to brag about – as the national debt surpassed $35 trillion for the first time in history, highlighting the increasingly unsustainable pace of debt issuance by countries around the world.
Data provided by the US Debt Clock shows that the U.S. national debt surpassed $35 trillion on Monday, a substantial increase from the $28.5 trillion recorded in July 2020 and nearly seven times the $5.5 trillion owed in July 2000.
The U.S. federal debt-to-GDP ratio now sits at 122.55%, and the annual interest on the debt, which currently sits at $906 billion, is close to surpassing the country’s defense budget of $912 billion.
And it’s not just the government that is on a debt binge as U.S. households have added $3.4 trillion in debt since the start of the COVID pandemic, and many are struggling to make payments. As noted by Global Markets Investor, “US household debt hit an all-time high of $17.7 trillion, up by $190 billion in Q1 2024.” Read More
Gold price holding its ground as Fed shifts focus away from inflation
The gold market is holding relatively steady above $2,400 an ounce as the Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged, sees inflation as less of a threat to the economy.
As expected, the U.S. Central Bank left the Federal Funds Rate unchanged in a range between 5.25% and 5.50%. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy statement was roughly unchanged as it reiterated that risks to the economy are balanced.
However, there was one slight adjustment as the central bank shifts its focus away from inflation.
“The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate,” the statement said. Read More
Stocks and precious metals soar, cryptos fall as Powell hints at September rate cut
Financial markets rallied higher in afternoon trading on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady – as was widely expected – with Fed Chair Jerome Powell providing a boost in sentiment after he laid the groundwork for an interest rate cut in September.
While Powell said the Fed has "made no decisions about future meetings and that includes the September meeting,” he noted that “the broad sense of the committee is that the economy is moving closer to the point at which it will be appropriate to reduce our policy rate.”
The decision to lower interest rates will depend on inflation falling or coming in line with expectations, growth remaining reasonably strong, and the labor market remaining consistent with current conditions, he said. If that criteria is met, Powell said he “think[s] a rate cut could be on the table in September.”
Markets responded positively to Powell's comments, with stocks, crude oil, gold, and silver all climbing higher, while the DXY and U.S. 10-year Treasury yield declined. Read More
Gold, silver up as FOMC leaves U.S. money policy unchanged
Gold and silver prices are higher in early-afternoon U.S. trading Wednesday, just after the U.S. monetary policy decision announcement from the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) that left interest rates unchanged, as expected. Some safe-haven demand is seen at mid-week after an apparent Israeli air strike killed the leader of Hamas. December gold was last up $16.80 at $2,469.10. September silver was up $0.25 at $28.775.
The just-released FOMC statement said the U.S. economy has moderated but inflation remains “somewhat elevated.” The Fed said it wants to see annual inflation back toward 2% before cutting rates, of which there has been some progress. The marketplace read the FOMC statement as being about as expected, which leans a bit dovish, and now awaits Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference.
Technically, December gold bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract high of $2,537.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,350.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,474.30 and then at $2,481.10. First support is seen at the overnight low of $2,449.20 and then at $2,425.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.
Image Source: Kitco News
September silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $30.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the May low of $26.55. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $29.02 and then at $29.50. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $28.39 and then at $28.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0. Read More
Image Source: Kitco News
Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
