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Silver Price News: Silver Sinks to One-Month Low
Silver prices edged further down on Friday to clock up week-on-week losses of around 4%, and marking a one-month low.
Prices eased to a low of $30.86 an ounce on Friday, before recouping some of the losses to trade at $31.24 an ounce later in the session. That compared with around $31.28 an ounce in late trades on Thursday.
Silver dips as gold momentum turns negative:
Taking the week as a whole, silver prices followed a similar downward trajectory to gold, which came under pressure amid a stronger US dollar and more positive sentiment in the wider financial markets which made safe haven assets less appealing.
Upcoming data:
Monday will see the release of Euro Area and UK manufacturing figures for February, which could play into the industrial demand picture for silver. Soon after will be the release of Euro Area inflation figures for February, which will be closely watched for any clues on the path forward for interest rates by the ECB. These will be followed by the US ISM manufacturing data for February, for the latest snapshot on the US economy. Read More
Gold Price News: Gold Eases to Compound Week-on-Week Losses
Gold prices fell for a second day on Friday, extending losses seen earlier in the week, after the wider financial markets went into risk-on mode.
Prices eased as low as $2,833 an ounce on Friday, down from around $2,877 an ounce in late deals on Thursday. That compares with Monday’s all-time high of $2,958 an ounce.
While gold could yet push higher to breach the $3,000 an ounce level for the first time, momentum began to look more bearish last week after prices failed to push through upside resistance levels, prompting some market observers to ask if gold prices have peaked.
Macro factors take the shine off gold’s safe-haven appeal:
Sentiment in the wider financial markets has also begun to look more positive, and this represents a negative for safe-haven assets like gold. A number of factors have fed into this picture. First, a peace deal in Ukraine is looking increasingly likely, even if uncertainty over the exact terms leaves questions over disputed territory and the presence of outside peacekeeping forces.
Second, the Chinese National People’s Congress is set to kick off on March 5, and markets are alive to the possibility of stimulus measures that could support the economy, in turn giving Chinese investors a reason to divert capital into higher-risk assets like stocks, and away from non-yielding precious metals.
Dollar strength weighs on gold:
In addition, the US dollar rose to a two-week high against the Euro on Friday, and a stronger dollar naturally puts downward pressure on dollar-denominated gold prices as it makes the precious metal more expensive for buyers in other currencies. Read More
Gold trading: traders on the edge ahead of big trade tariff deadline
Gold dealers find themselves negotiating an unclear terrain as the world economy gets ready for U.S. tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and the European Union to be imposed. Set to start on March 4, 2025, the expectation of these trade policies has caused instability in financial markets and driven investors to flee into classic safe-haven commodities like gold.
Backdrop of imminent tariffs:
President Donald Trump announced a slate of tariffs intended to correct trade imbalances and national security issues on February 1, 2025. Among these policies are a 10% tax aimed especially at Canadian energy imports and a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada. Furthermore scheduled to start with the North American tariffs is an additional 10% levy on Chinese imports.
From stopping the flow of illegal substances into the United States to shielding home businesses from outside competition, the justification for these tariffs spans a spectrum of problems. But the general use of these levies has sparked questions about possible retaliation actions and the whole effect on world trade dynamics.
Gold's Reaction to Trade Stress:
Gold has long been seen as a counterpoint against geopolitical and financial uncertainty. The approaching tariffs in the present climate have heightened worries of a worldwide trade war, which has driven investors to rush to gold as a value source. This change in mood has sent gold prices almost to record highs.
Spot gold prices have fluctuated as of March 3, 2025, in line with the market's trade-sensitive sensitivity. A declining US dollar adds even more attractiveness to the metal as it increases the value of gold to holders of other currencies. Read More
ISM Manufacturing PMI shows sharp rise in inflation pressures
The gold market is seeing some modest buying momentum as investors buy the dip after last week’s selloff. Analysts note that the precious metal could continue to benefit from stagnating economic activity and rising inflation.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) announced on Monday that its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was relatively unchanged at 50.3% in February, compared to the previous reading at 50.9. The headline number was slightly weaker than expected.
However, the report showed a surprising surge in inflation. The Price Index jumped to 62.4%, up from January’s reading of 54.9%. Economists were looking for a more modest increase to 56.2%.
Inflation in the manufacturing sector rose to its highest level since June 2022.
“U.S. manufacturing activity expanded marginally for the second month in a row in February after 26 consecutive months of contraction. Demand weakened, while output stabilized and inputs, for the first time in several months, contributed to PMI growth,” said Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee in the report.
The gold market is not reacting strongly to the latest disappointing economic data, as prices hold near session highs. Spot gold last traded at $2,878.90 an ounce. Read More
Gold flows to the U.S. may be easing, but geopolitics could drive further spikes and disruptions – World Gold Council
Gold has been flowing West – and to the United States in particular – since Trump’s tariff threats took center stage in precious metals markets. But although elevated geoeconomic risks could cause intermittent spikes in flows, there are signs that the current disruptions are easing, according to the World Gold Council (WGC).
In their latest analysis, the WGC’s Global Head of Research Juan Carlos Artigas and Senior Market Strategist for Europe and Asia John Reade noted the recent rise in COMEX gold inventories, and the widening spread between futures and spot prices, both sparked by tariff uncertainty.
“In late 2024, COMEX inventories started to rise as concerns grew that tariffs could impact gold imports,” they wrote. “This surge of gold imports into the US caught many gold market observers by surprise, as the country is (more or less) self-sufficient in its gold needs, being both a significant producer and a consumer. While gold itself hasn’t been directly targeted, speculation and shifting risk management strategies amid concerns of broad-based tariffs have still had a noticeable impact on prices and trading patterns. This trend has continued into early 2025 and, as of date, COMEX registered and eligible inventories have increased by nearly 300t (9mn oz) and more than 500t (17mn oz), respectively.” Read More
Gold prices are being driven by flows and central banks, not macro and investors: Here’s how to tell – IG
Gold prices are no longer being driven by investors’ reactions to macroeconomic fundamentals, but by physical flows and central bank demand, according to an analysis from IG.
In a report published on Monday, IG analysts wrote that gold has always represented different things to different people. “Some see it as an inflation hedge, others as a safe haven,” they said. “For many, it’s an alternative to the Dollar or interest-paying government bonds. At eyeQ, our smart models take all those views into account — inflation expectations, risk appetite (like the VIX), the US Dollar and real yields.”
“Right now, those factors point to a fair value of $2,906 — the level gold should be at given current macro conditions,” they said.
Image Source: Kitco News
“Our model’s fair value (the orange line) has been trending higher for months, showing solid macro support for higher gold prices,” IG noted. “But after the recent dip, gold now trades 1.9% below fair value — a slight discount, but nothing extraordinary. For gold bugs, though, there may be better value elsewhere. Gold mining stocks, like Newmont, screen as far cheaper — currently 13% below fair value based on macro conditions.”
The analysts also shared a simple way to determine if the gold market is currently being driven by macro factors or by physical flows. Read More
Beyond record cash flow: How American Pacific sees the future of gold stocks
A solid earnings season with record cash flows and robust production has made the mining sector extremely investable, and according to two mining executives, it's only a matter of time before interest moves from senior producers to junior explorers.
In an interview with Kitco News, American Pacific CEO Warwick Smith and Managing Director of Exploration Eric Saderholm said higher gold and copper prices are bringing new attention to the mining sector; however, they noted that companies still have more work to do to attract investors' attention in a world filled with chaos.
Smith explained that despite improving sentiment in the mining sector, growing economic uncertainty is prompting investors to hoard cash or invest in alternative assets like crypto. He pointed out that crypto is attracting significant attention because of how much money investors have made in the sector.
He pointed out that Bitcoin’s recent 20% correction, as prices briefly dropped below $80,000 a token, hasn’t fazed many investors, who are still sitting on long-term profits.
“A lot of these young investors are trading cryptocurrencies because they can do it unemotionally,” he said. “They are buying and selling smaller coins. They can take advantage of the liquidity and because it's easy, they can do it 24 hours a day on their cell phones. You can’t do that with junior mining stocks.” Read More
Gold’s rally teeters as demand falls in China and India, silver faces further downside risk – Heraeus
Weakening demand in the most important regions is threatening gold’s rally, while silver continues to underperform the yellow metal as it faces the risk of a sharper slide, according to precious metals analysts at Heraeus.
In their latest precious metals update, the analysts noted that the gold rally has run into headwinds as demand declines in key markets.
“India’s February gold imports are on track for a 20-year low, while China’s January imports via Hong Kong plunged 44% month-on-month—the weakest since April 2022,” they wrote. “After hitting 40 fresh all-time highs in 2024 and gaining 10% year-to-date, gold’s relentless climb may be feeling the drag from softening consumer demand in its two biggest markets.”
Image Source: Kitco News
Gold has traded at a discount in China over the past two weeks, and in India since early January. “Jewellery demand was also down year-on-year in 2024: 24% lower in China and 2% lower in India,” they noted. “With prices at historic highs, the volume of gold purchased could fall further even if total spending holds steady, meaning Q1’25 demand in India is likely to trail the 139 tonnes recorded in Q1'24.”
The technical picture also has gold looking overstretched, and last week’s price action appears to have confirmed this view. “After setting a fresh high on Monday, gold reversed to $2,917/oz,” they said. “Pressure intensified on Thursday when President Trump announced new tariffs on Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese goods, triggering a 1.7 percentage point spike in the dollar index to 107.2. Gold closed Friday at $2,849/oz, leaving a bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly candle chart.”
Gold prices remained in positive territory on Monday, but they’ve pulled back from their earlier highs above $2,890. Spot gold last traded at $2,884.42 per ounce for a gain of 0.92% on the session. Read More
Gold, silver see strong gains on safe-haven bids, slumping USDX
Gold and silver prices are posting very sharp gains in midday U.S. trading Monday, on fresh safe-haven demand due to elevated geopolitical tensions, and amid a big drop in the U.S. dollar index to start the trading week. April gold was last up $54.70 at $2,902.70. May silver prices were last up $0.929 at $32.425.
Risk aversion is elevated to start the trading week, following Friday’s tense meeting between U.S. President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky that put in jeopardy U.S. relations with Ukraine and the potential for a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. Meantime, U.S. trade tariffs against Mexico, Canada and China are set to go into effect Tuesday. Gold prices are sharply higher to start the week, after last week seeing its worst week in three months.
Technically, April gold futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been at least temporarily negated. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract high of $2,974.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,800.00. First resistance is seen at $2,920.00 and then at $2,942.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $2,866.30 and then at $2,850.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.
Image Source: Kitco News
May silver futures bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. However, prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $33.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $30.00. First resistance is seen at $32.61 and then at $33.00. Next support is seen at $32.00 and then at the overnight low of $31.635. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0. Read More
Image Source: Kitco News
Live From The Vault - Episode: 212
Can Trump Expose Fed’s Gold Cover-Up? Feat. Daniel Lacalle
In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire sits down with renowned economist Daniel Lacalle to dissect the shifting global financial landscape, from the erosion of trust in political institutions to the rise of gold as a preferred reserve asset.
As resistance grows against mainstream narratives, political and economic turns in Europe, the US, and beyond are driving demand for gold, whilst central banks are reducing reliance on sovereign debt, signalling significant market changes ahead.
Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
Featured Image - Source: Unsplash
