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Gold Price News: Gold Rallies On Interest Rate Cut Hopes
Gold prices rallied to a six-week high on Friday, lifted by US data which bolstered the case for interest rate cuts in the coming months.
Prices climbed as high as $2,393 an ounce on Friday, compared with around $2,357 an ounce in late deals on Thursday. That was the highest price for gold since May 22.
The market appeared to react to a US unemployment report on Friday, which showed that jobless numbers rose to 4.1% in June, above market expectations of 4%.
In addition, US non-farm payrolls figures were released Friday, and while the headline number for June beat the market’s expectations, the figures for April and May were revised sharply lower. Together, the latest round of figures points to a softer than expected US jobs market, and this strengthens expectations of interest rate cuts coming after the summer. Read More
Silver Price News: Silver Jumps Higher After US Jobs Figures
Silver prices powered up above the $31.00 an ounce level on Friday to hit a three-week-high, taking a lead from stronger gold prices as US economic data strengthened the case for interest rate cuts.
Prices briefly notched up a high of $31.71 an ounce – the highest price for silver since June 12. That compared with around $30.40 an ounce in late deals on Thursday.
Both gold and silver reacted positively to US data released Friday which painted a dimmer picture on the economy, playing into expectations that the US Fed will start to slash interest rates this autumn.
Friday also saw the return of the US markets after the July 4 Independence Day holiday.
Silver came back down off the highs to trade at around $31.24 an ounce in late deals on Friday, holding comfortably above the $31.00 figure. Read More
Wall Street sees green lights for gold next week; Main Street jumps back on the bullish bandwagon
Gold finally shook itself out of its summer doldrums this week, as weak employment data helped the yellow metal rocket out of its recent holding pattern as it once again approached the $2400 price level.
Spot gold opened the week trading at $2,326.72 per ounce, remaining within a $15 range of that level on Monday and Tuesday. Then, Wednesday brought a raft of economic data and news events, with ADP employment, weekly jobless claims, and the ISM services PMI all released in the morning ahead of the July 4th Independence Day holiday in the United States, along with the minutes from the June FOMC meeting in the afternoon.
The data suggested a weakening jobs market in the United States, and the Fed’s minutes showed little inclination to raise rates. This combination helped to propel gold from flat on the week to its then-high of $2,363.77 shortly after 10:30 am EDT. Read More
Precious metals should shine in H2 2024 based on seasonal trends, summer price gains should be strong – MKS PAMP
Based on historical trends and regular seasonal performance, precious metals may be significantly underpriced going into the second half of the year, according to precious metals strategists at MKS PAMP.
In the company’s Precious Metals Seasonal Report released on July 3, the strategists wrote that a nuanced understanding of seasonal trends is important for metals investors.
“Seasonal trends alone don’t form the foundation of any trade or view, but it’s usually a useful supplement to existing ideas and helps explain away price out/underperformances,” they wrote. “Given we’re entering 2H, and after the recent strong price performance across most metals in 1H’24, it's worthwhile to provide a review of 1) how 1H 2024 performances stacked up against historical seasonal trends, and 2) provide a quick overview of the outlook for metals performances and how they ‘should perform’ into 2H and in this late summer (July 4th-Labor Day) period.” Read More
Gold will gain through Q4 on sovereign, safe haven buying, Fed rate cut would magnify the move – ING’s Manthey
Geopolitical risks, positive flows and market positioning, and sustained central bank buying are combining to push gold prices higher through the end of the year, and a Fed rate cut could push them higher still, according to Ewa Manthey, Commodities Strategist at ING.
In the bank’s monthly update, Manthey noted that gold prices have gained over 15% so far this year, and the precious metal is one of the best-performing assets of 2024.
She pointed out that the gains were driven primarily by safe-haven demand from the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, along with central bank buying.
“Gold traded above $2,300/oz for most of the second quarter and recorded its third-straight quarterly gain, marking its best run since the Covid pandemic,” she said.
“The precious metal set record after record in the first half of the year despite the US Federal Reserve keeping interest rates high, strength in the US dollar and divergence in US Treasury 10-year yields and ETF holdings and gold prices. We believe gold is poised to keep its positive momentum going in the second half amid the current global geopolitical and macroeconomic landscape while central bank demand is expected to grow.” Read More
China halts gold purchases for the second month, while other central banks boost reserves
After testing resistance at $2,400 an ounce on Friday, the gold market has seen its bullish momentum wane.
According to some analysts, traders are taking profits on Monday following the news over the weekend that the People’s Bank of China didn’t increase its gold reserves for the second consecutive month.
Official data from China’s central bank shows its gold reserves holdings at 2,264 tonnes. Investors are taking this news in stride as gold continues to hold critical support above $2,350 an ounce. August gold futures last traded at $2,360.80 an ounce, down 1.5% on the day.
Last month, when China ended its 18-month buying spree, gold prices dropped more than 2% overnight on the news.
However, some analysts note that while China has not updated its reserves on paper, it doesn’t mean it has stopped buying gold. Some analysts suspect that China will start keeping its gold purchases under wraps as prices remain extremely elevated. Read More
Gold, silver caught in downdraft of broad commodity market sell off
Gold and silver prices are sharply lower in midday U.S. trading Monday, on heavy profit-taking from the shorter-term futures traders after recent good price advances. The selling pressure today across most of the raw commodity spectrum is also keeping the precious metals bulls on the sidelines to start the trading week. August gold was last down $37.50 at $2,360.10. September silver was down $0.849 at $30.85.
U.S. stock indexes mixed, but near their record highs scored last week. The rallying stock market is a bearish element for the gold and silver markets, from a competing asset class perspective. The key U.S. data points of the week include Fed Chairman Powell’s speeches to the U.S. Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the consumer and producer price indexes on Thursday and Friday, respectively.
Technically, August gold bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the June high of $2,406.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,300.00. First resistance is seen at $2,382.60 and then at $2,400070. First support is seen at $2,350.00 and then at last week’s low of $2,327.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
Image Source: Kitco News
September silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of $33.05. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the June low of $28.90. First resistance is seen at $31.00 and then at $31.50. Next support is seen at Friday’s low of $30.45 and then at $30.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5. Read More
Image Source: Kitco News
Gold prices more likely to fall below $2,300 than rally to ATH right now – FxPro’s Kuptsikevich
Gold has benefited from USD weakness since the end of June, but prices are more likely to decline below $2,300 than rally to all-time highs in the near term, according to Alex Kuptsikevich, Senior Market Analyst at FxPro.
“Gold has lost 0.9% since the start of Monday, almost back to the point where it was trading before the release of jobs data on Friday,” Kuptsikevich noted in an analysis published on Monday. “Perhaps the very first market reaction to the data release highlighted the mindset of key market participants: they are ready to sell.”
He noted that gold’s recent strength is largely a by-product of the U.S. dollar’s parallel weakness, as the greenback has declined by 1% since late June.
“Weak employment figures also pushed up the gold price on Friday, leading to a weaker dollar and bringing the start of rate cuts closer,” he added. “However, we note the momentum of the 0.8% decline in gold in the first moments after publication.” Read More
Gold Prices Decline Amid Signs of Easing Inflation
Image Source: Kitco News
Gold futures experienced a sharp decline on Monday, shedding $34 to settle at $2,363.50 for the most active August contract. This drop came despite recent economic indicators suggesting a cooling inflation rate and a contracting U.S. economy—factors that typically support gold prices.
The week ahead promises to be eventful for financial markets, with several key events on the horizon. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to testify before the House and Senate, beginning Tuesday and concluding Wednesday. His testimony is expected to echo his recent assessment of the U.S. economy and inflation, presented last week at the European Central Bank forum in Portugal.
Powell's recent comments have been interpreted as having a dovish bias. He acknowledged significant progress in combating inflation, noting that the Fed's preferred measure, Core PCE, has "tumbled to 2.6% from 5.6% in mid-2022," which he called "really significant progress." Read More
Live From The Vault - Episode: 180
“The argument for silver has changed!” Feat. Peter Grandich
In this week’s episode of Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined by returning guest Peter Grandich, author and former Head of Investment Strategy for a leading New York Stock Exchange firm.
The precious metals experts open with an overview of gold price manipulation and the mining space, before discussing the impact of Bitcoin, BRICS and the changing global order; they close with how Peter would weigh gold and silver in a portfolio.
Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
