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Gold Price News: Gold Holds Above $2,500 An Ounce
Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, holding comfortably above the $2,500 an ounce level as the markets awaited key US inflation figures ahead of a US Fed meeting next week. Prices climbed as high as $2,519 an ounce during the day, compared with around $2,508 an ounce in late trades on Monday. Tuesday’s slight rise for gold added to Monday’s moderate gains.
The markets were waiting for Wednesday’s US inflation figures for August, for the latest signals on monetary policy from the US Fed at its upcoming meeting on September 18th.
Data from interest rate traders suggests a roughly 69% probability of a 25 basis-point cut in interest rates at the meeting, with a 31% chance of a 50 basis-point cut. Lower rates tend to support gold as a non-yield-bearing asset.
The latest inflation reading is key, because the Fed’s ability to cut rates depends on inflation demonstrating a sustainable trend down towards its target of 2%. Read More
Silver Price News: Silver Tops $28.50 Mark
Silver prices gained ground on Tuesday, moving in line with moderate strength in gold. Silver climbed as high as $28.59 an ounce on Tuesday, up from around $28.40 an ounce in late trades on Monday.
The precious metals markets were looking ahead to US inflation and producer prices figures due out on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, ahead of a widely expected decision by the US Fed to start cutting interest rates at its upcoming meeting on September 18th.
The long-expected decision on monetary policy is a supportive element for precious metals, as lower borrowing costs cut the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing investments.
After slipping lower in the last few days of August, silver prices have shown indications of support at around the $27.70 an ounce mark. Read More
Weak economic growth could boost central bank gold demand - BCA’s Ibrahim
Central bank gold demand has been a critical pillar behind the precious metal’s impressive rally this year, and according to one research firm, this trend is not going away.
In a recent report, Roukaya Ibrahim, Strategist at BCA Research, said gold’s luster continues to outshine other commodities as it experiences robust demand, specifically from emerging market central banks.
“Central bank gold buying is likely to remain a tailwind for the yellow metal, supporting a continuation of the rally over the coming years,” she said.
Ibrahim noted that since 2022, central bank gold purchases have accounted for a quarter of total global demand, more than double the five-year average of around 11%.
She explained that given gold’s role as a global monetary metal, it’s not surprising that central banks are increasing their reserves. Ibrahim noted that because supplies are limited, gold acts as a natural hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Read More
Gold prices trading near session lows as annual US inflation rises 2.5%
The gold market is seeing some renewed selling pressure, trading near session lows as U.S. inflation pressures continue to moderate, in line with expectations.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% last month after August’s 0.2% increase, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Wednesday. The latest inflation data was in line with expectations.
The report said that in the last 12 months, consumer prices sharply moderated, rising 2.5%, down from August’s reading of 2.9%. Economists were expecting to see a 2.6% increase.
However, stripping out volatile food and energy prices, inflation ticked slightly higher than expected, with core CPI rising 0.3% in September. According to consensus estimates, economists were looking for a 0.2% increase.
Annual core inflation rose 3.2%, in line with expectations. Read More
Right on track for gold price to hit $4,800 - Incrementum’s Ronald-Peter Stoeferle
Gold is not yet at the euphoria stage, but the metal’s rally has legs, said Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, managing partner at Icrementum AG.
On Tuesday, Stoeferle spoke to Kitco Mining at the 2024 Precious Metals Summit Beaver Creek in Colorado.
Incrementum AG is an independent fund and asset management company based in Liechtenstein. Every end of May, Incrementum publishes the report In Gold We Trust.
In 2024, gold has hit several all-time highs, with prices currently holding initial support above $2,500. Even with its 20% rally, Stoeferle said the metal should run higher.
“Whenever I do keynotes and say, ‘gold is cheap,’ people just shake their heads and cannot believe what I'm saying, because most people are considering selling their gold at this moment,” said Stoeferle. Watch the podcast
Gold to rally to $2,750 by 2025 after falling to $2,200 - Capital Economics
Gold's long-term uptrend remains intact; however, the precious metal is currently priced to perfection, making it vulnerable to a significant selloff before the end of the year, according to one research firm.
In his latest precious metals report, David Oxley, Chief Climate and Commodities Economist at Capital Economics, raised his 2025 gold price forecast to $2,750 an ounce. However, he cautioned that prices will not rise in a straight line.
Oxley maintained his 2024 year-end price target of $2,200 an ounce. At current levels, the market could experience a 12% drop in the coming months. December gold futures last traded at $2,538 an ounce. In recent weeks, the gold market has faced strong resistance at $2,550 an ounce.
"Even though we now forecast gold prices to end next year about 10% higher than their current level, the path between now and then is unlikely to be smooth. In fact, we believe it’s more likely than not that gold prices will fall—potentially sharply—before rising again," he said. "More broadly, in a year when gold prices have climbed steadily, a pullback is not out of the question." Read More
Bitcoin loses correlation with gold as investors seek traditional safe havens
Both Bitcoin (BTC) and gold have seen tremendous growth in 2024, with the pair emerging as the best performing assets of the year, but over the past few months, gold has shined bright while BTC lagged, suggesting that investors see the yellow metal as the preferred safe-haven asset amid rising economic turmoil.
According to a report from CryptoQuant, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has turned decidedly negative as of late as gold hit a new record high above $2,500 per ounce while BTC is down more than 22% from its high above $73,000 set in March.
At the same time as gold has gained favor with investors, U.S. stocks have struggled, with the S&P 500 slipping 3.6% since August 30.
“Regarding valuation metrics, the price of Bitcoin remains in a BEARISH phase,” analysts at CryptoQuant wrote. “CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has been in BEAR phase since August 27, when the price of Bitcoin was trading at $62K. As long as the indicator remains in BEAR phase a significant rally is not expected.” Read More
Silver's struggle: Will China’s economic slowdown keep prices stuck? - Phil Streible
Recent data paints a bleak picture of China’s economic slowdown, which is affecting global commodity markets, including precious metals like gold and silver. China’s latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has shown continued contraction, signaling reduced demand for exports and manufacturing. In particular, the real estate crisis has worsened, with property developers struggling and deflationary pressures building. Philip Streible from Blue Line Ventures commented on these challenges in a recent conversation with Jeremy Szafron, Anchor at Kitco News. "It's never good when you start seeing them blowing up their own buildings because the property sector is just in dire straits," Streible said, emphasizing the gravity of the situation.
China's role as a major consumer of silver, especially in electronics and industrial applications, makes this slowdown particularly concerning for commodity markets. Streible explained, "Can you see silver rallying without the world's second-largest economy participating? I really don't think so." He also noted that China's economic challenges are having ripple effects on other commodities, such as soybeans and copper, adding, "All these products have had significant headwinds, and you can see that reflected in the price action." Watch the podcast
Bitcoin and gold struggle, stocks dump and pump after CPI data sparks Fed rate cut uncertainty
Financial markets spent most of Wednesday attempting to climb out of the red as asset prices declined across the board after the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in largely as expected, except for core prices, which climbed 0.3% over the prior month, above the 0.2% anticipated by economists.
The negative reaction was widely attributed to the decline in expectations for a 50 bps rate cut from the Fed next week. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds of such a rate cut declined from 44% last week to 13% currently.
After falling deep into the red during morning trading, the major indices reversed course and climbed back into the green in the afternoon. At the closing bell, the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq were all higher, up 1.07%, 0.31%, and 2.17%, respectively.
Spot gold spiked to a high near $2,529/oz in the early morning hours on Wednesday but turned sharply lower after the CPI was released, hitting a low near $2,501/oz before dip buyers pushed it back above $2,511.80/oz, where it currently trades for a loss of 0.17% on the session. Read More
Gold sees mild profit-taking after tame U.S. CPI
Gold prices are near steady in midday U.S. trading Wednesday after selling off a bit right after the release of a tame U.S. inflation report. Profit taking from the shorter-term futures traders was featured. Silver prices are higher. December gold was last up $1.00 at $2,544.10 and December silver was up $0.316 at $28.935.
The U.S. data point of the week is Wednesday’s consumer price index for August, which came in at up 2.5% annually, compared to forecasts for up 2.6%, year-on-year, and follows the 2.9% rise seen in the July report. The “core” CPI (excluding food and energy) for August was up 3.2% annually, right in line with forecasts, and compares to a rise of 3.2% in the July report. The U.S. producer price index report is out Thursday.
It’s likely some of the selling pressure in gold after the CPI report was a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” scenario, whereby shorter-term futures traders expected a tame CPI report and established long positions beforehand, and then took profits after the tame CPI print.
Technically, December gold bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the record high of $2,570.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,475.00. First resistance is seen at $2,550.00 and then at today’s high of $2,558.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $2,514.20 and then at the September low of $2,502.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.
Image Source: Kitco News
December silver futures bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $30.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the August low of $26.885. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $29.215 and then at $29.55. Next support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $28.36 and then at $28.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0. Read More
Image Source: Kitco News
Gold futures dip as inflation data shifts rate cut expectations
Gold futures experienced a modest decline in New York and Globex trading today, with the most active December contract settling at $2,540.30, down $5.50 or 0.22% as of 5:08 PM EDT.
Image Source: Kitco News
This downturn was primarily attributed to a shift in market sentiment regarding the anticipated size of next week's Federal Reserve rate cut, rather than fluctuations in the U.S. dollar.
The catalyst for this sentiment shift was today's release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The report revealed that inflation rose by 2.5% year-over-year in August, slightly below the consensus estimate of 2.6% projected by MarketWatch. This marks a deceleration from July's annualized rate of 2.9%, indicating a gradual cooling of inflationary pressures.
However, the Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, remained steady at an annualized rate of 3.2% for the second consecutive month. This persistence in core inflation has led to a reassessment of expectations for the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Read More
Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
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