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Silver Price News: Silver Struggles on Macro Woes
Silver starts the week trading around $27.7/toz, having stabilized in the latter half of last week, but still down over 3% on last Monday’s open. The most recent CFTC Commitments of Traders (CoT) report, published late on 9 august, suggests that net speculative silver futures positions were flat on the previous week. Although this represents almost a 20% reduction on the 54-month high registered on 26 July, we note that such position-taking has remained at elevated levels since late March 2024 in contrast to considerable historic volatility. Moreover, physically backed silver ETFs/ETCs appear to have returned to net inflows in recent days, having suffered some outflows earlier in the month.
While silver is less impacted than gold by the firming of US rates seen over recent days, it is significantly more sensitive to ongoing concerns of global economic weakness. While this is still considered a ‘tail risk’ for markets, it is unsurprising that asset classes that have performed well and geared to economic growth have struggled recently in the face of soft economic data. This is as true of equities in respect of earnings prospects, and it is of silver in respect of industrial demand. Read More
Gold Price News: Gold Bucks Rate Headwinds
Gold starts the week trading around $2436/toz, having clawed back most of the losses taken early last week. The most recent CFTC Commitments of Traders (CoT) report, published late on 9 August, suggests that net speculative gold futures positions were again trimmed from the near 29-month high registered on 26 July. Although some are 13% lower than these peak levels, this remains broadly consistent with the elevated levels of speculative activity seen since the start of June 2024, which is encouraging given considerable capital market volatility. Physical gold ETF/ETC flows suggest that although there was some buying on weakness last week, last week saw cumulative outflows.
US rate markets have firmed significantly from the market panic evidenced a week ago as traders squared positions and analysts reassessed the probability of a US recession. CME FedWatch now suggests futures are currently pricing in c. 51% probability of a 0.25% cut and a c. 49% probability of a 0.5% cut in the key US Fed Funds rate at the next FOMC meeting on 18 September. This, in conjunction with a parallel move up in 10-year Treasury yields, constitutes a headwind for gold. Nevertheless, heightened geopolitical risk and volatility in other markets remains supportive. Read More
Gold will maintain its upward momentum as Fed cuts, sovereign buying, ETF flows support prices – ING’s Manthey
Gold prices will peak in the fourth quarter as investors focus on Fed cuts, while ETF inflows and central bank buying continue to provide support against a backdrop of geopolitical risk, according to Ewa Manthey, Commodities Strategist at ING.
In the bank’s monthly update, Manthey noted that gold fell along with the global equities sell-off at the start of the week as fears of a U.S. recession spiked. “Gold, usually a safe haven during such uncertainty, sold off sharply on Monday amid likely liquidations to cover margin calls on other assets,” she said.
“Looking ahead, we believe gold should regain its footing once again, amid the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of interest rate cuts from the US Fed,” Manthey said. “Despite Monday’s sharp drop, gold is still up about 15% so far this year and is one of this year’s best-performing commodities, aided by central bank buying, Asian consumers and expectations the Fed is getting close to cutting rates. It hit an all-time high in July amid strong appetite from central banks and Asian consumers.” Read More
Trump’s ‘20 Core Promises’ include keeping the USD as the world’s reserve currency
Presidential candidate Donald Trump released his "20 Core Promises to Make America Great Again" on Monday afternoon, which includes the promise to "Keep the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency."
Trump has made headlines in recent months for his pro-crypto pivot, leading some to wonder about his stance on the USD, especially since he has called for making Bitcoin (BTC) a strategic reserve asset.
While he and his running mate JD Vance have made repeated statements in recent weeks calling for a dollar devaluation to boost the country's manufacturing and lower the trade deficit, the inclusion of the USD reserve status in his list of promises suggests that he recognizes the value of having the reserve currency status, and doesn't want to see that end under his watch. Read More
Bitcoin flat, stocks mixed, gold shines bright ahead of key inflation reports
It was a volatile and choppy Monday for asset prices ahead of a busy week on the data front, as traders largely refrained from placing new bets in the markets until they get a better read on inflation from the upcoming PPI and CPI reports.
Bitcoin (BTC), stocks, and gold all traded in both positive and negative territory at various points during the day, with gold outshining the rest, trading at $2,470.10 at the time of writing, an increase of 1.62% on the 24-hour chart.
The major stock indices finished the day as a truly mixed bag, with the Nasdaq gaining 0.21%, the Dow losing 0.36%, and the S&P flat.
Rising economic concerns and chatter about a recession have made the going rough for risk assets, including Bitcoin, which has been stuck in a sideways range since late February.
“In August, we have seen a sell-off across all risk assets and Bitcoin has been no exception, experiencing a 33.32 percent decline from cycle high which is also our current All-Time High at $73,666,” said analysts at Bitfinex. “This was the largest such decline for BTC of this cycle.” Read More
Gold, silver rally amid bullish outside markets
Gold and silver prices are higher, with gold solidly up, near midday Monday. The precious metals are being supported in part by bullish daily outside market elements that include higher crude oil prices and a slight down-tick in U.S. bond yields. The gold market also sees technical buying on a bullish chart posture. Silver is also being supported by some short covering in the futures market and some perceived bargain buying after recent selling pressure. December gold was last up $23.60 at $2,497.10. September silver was up $0.287 at $27.87.
Metals traders are awaiting the U.S. data points of the week: the July producer price index on Tuesday and the consumer price index for July on Wednesday. PPI is seen up 0.2% from June and the CPI is also seen up 0.2%, month-on-month. The retail sales report on Thursday will also be closely scrutinized by the marketplace.
Technically, December gold bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract high of $2,537.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,350.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,500.30 and then at $2,516.60. First support is seen at the overnight low of $2,462.70 and then at $2,450.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.
Image Source: Kitco News
September silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of $39.355. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $26.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $28.08 and then at $28.50. Next support is seen at today’s low of $27.28 and then at $27.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5. Read More
Image Source: Kitco News
US dollar reserves drop 14% since 2002 as BRICS and gold challenge hegemony
The decline of the U.S. dollar (USD) as the world’s reserve currency has been a popular topic of conversation for years – especially in the wake of the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007-2008 – and while talks of its impending demise may be overblown, data provided by the Atlantic Council shows that the world is indeed utilizing the USD significantly less than at the turn of the century.
According to the Atlantic Council’s Dollar Dominance Monitor, the share of the USD in global reserves stood at 58% in 2024, a 14% decline from 2002 when it accounted for 72% of global reserves.
“The US dollar has served as the world’s leading reserve currency since World War II,” the report said. “Today, the dollar represents 58 percent of the value of foreign reserve holdings worldwide. The euro, the second-most-used currency, comprises only 20 percent of foreign reserve holdings.”
“But in recent years, and especially since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Group of Seven (G7)’s subsequent escalation in the use of financial sanctions, some countries have been signaling their intention to diversify away from dollars,” researchers at the Atlantic Council said. Read More
United States Mint sourced non-American gold for decades, misled customers and auditors – Treasury investigation
For decades, the United States Mint did not obtain, nor even request, any documentation confirming the origins of the gold they sourced from suppliers and refiners, all while promoting their most popular coins as minted from 100% newly-mined American gold, according to a recent report from the U.S. Treasury’s investigatory and auditing office.
The Treasury Department’s Office of the Inspector General (OIG) published the audit report OIG-24-027 on May 29, 2024. The report, entitled ‘Bill and Coin Manufacturing: The Mint Needs to Enhance Controls over Gold Acquisitions,’ was the result of nearly a year of investigation, and it uncovered serious lapses, failures, and misrepresentations in the 222-year-old institution’s gold procurement processes.
The OIG “conducts independent audits, investigations and reviews to help the Treasury Department accomplish its mission; improve its programs and operations; promote economy, efficiency and effectiveness; and prevent and detect fraud and abuse.”
But the report’s publication was delayed for over three years due in part to the refusal of the Mint’s senior management to accept its findings, and it took a shakeup at the very top of the institution before the OIG’s recommendations were accepted. Read More
Live From The Vault - Episode: 185
Beijing hides gold buying in plain sight
In this week’s episode of Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire exposes mainstream media-sanctioned misinformation about the People's Bank of China, unveiling Chinese central bank bids hidden in plain sight.
The London whistleblower breaks down the latest economic data, offering a detailed look at silver and its longer-term outlook, and takes listeners through chart-driven analysis of the latest market movements.
Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
