x
Image Source: Unsplash
Silver Price News: Silver Rises By 2% As Rate-Cut Hopes Bolster Safe Havens
Silver prices made solid gains on Tuesday, moving higher as the precious metals complex took support from rising expectations that the US Fed will cut interest rates in little more than two months.
Prices rose as high as $31.43 an ounce on Tuesday, compared with around $30.68 in late deals on Monday.
Both gold and silver moved higher on Tuesday on the back of comments by US Fed chair Jerome Powell on Monday who took note of the recent slower inflation figures for June and said the central bank wouldn’t need to wait for inflation to fall to its target of 2% before starting a rate-cutting cycle.
The markets are now fully pricing in an interest rate cut at the Fed’s planned meeting on September 18, just over two months away. Lower interest rates tend to weaken the US dollar and reduce the opportunity cost of holding precious metals – both bullish factors for gold and silver prices. Read More
Gold Price News: Gold Hits Fresh All-Time High on Interest Rate Cut Hopes
Gold prices pushed up to a new all-time high on Tuesday, as the markets reacted to US Fed comments suggesting a stronger chance of interest rate cuts in September.
Prices rallied as high as $2,466 an ounce on Tuesday, compared with $2,422 an ounce in late trades on Monday. The latest gains mean gold has topped its previous all-time highs of just over $2,450 an ounce, seen on May 20.
The trigger for the renewed strength for gold was a speech by US Fed chair Jerome Powell on Monday. Powell noted that inflation had come in below expectations in June, suggesting that price increases are coming down towards the central bank’s target. He also said that inflation wouldn’t necessarily need to hit the 2% mark before the Fed starts to cut rates – a bullish factor for gold, as lower rates cut the opportunity cost of holding non-yield-bearing assets. Read More
The real reason behind silver's price manipulation - Keith Neumeyer
The silver market is experiencing significant manipulation due to its dual role as both an industrial metal and an investment commodity, according to Keith Neumeyer, CEO of First Majestic Silver. Market manipulation remains rampant and is driven by trading desks at major banks that treat silver as just another number on a screen, often ignoring its fundamental value and significance.
Neumeyer told Jeremy Szafron, Anchor at Kitco News, "These traders that work, and I used to be a trader on the floor, just think of it as a number on a screen. They don't realize this is an important metal that should be trading at a much higher price."
As of mid-July 2024, the global silver deficit is expected to rise by 17%, reaching 215.3 million ounces. This increase is primarily driven by a 2% growth in industrial demand coupled with a 1% decline in supply, according to the Silver Institute.
The demand for silver spans various industries, including electronics, solar panels, and electric vehicles, all of which are seeing robust growth. This persistent deficit underscores the strategic importance of silver and its crucial role in advancing technology and renewable energy solutions. Read More
Gold market eyes $2,500 with $2,600 on deck - Pepperstone’s Weston
The gold market is once again firing on all cylinders and trading near fresh all-time highs. According to one market analyst, the precious metal has room to run higher.
Overnight, August gold futures pushed to a session high of $2,487.40 an ounce, and they continue to hold most of their gains as the North American trading session kicks off on Wednesday. August gold last traded at $2,484.80 an ounce, up 0.68% on the day.
In a note published late Tuesday, Chris Weston, Head of Research at Pepperstone, said that gold’s fundamentals have clearly shifted, and that $2,500 an ounce is the next major test on the horizon, with $2,600 as another potential target.
Gold got the green light to take off last week as markets started to aggressively price in a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 98% chance of easing at the September meeting. Read More
Gold price to end the year at $2,200, Fed’s easing cycle is priced in - Capital Economics
The gold market hit fresh all-time highs overnight, but not everyone expects the yellow metal to maintain this momentum.
In a report published last week, Hamad Hussain, Assistant Climate and Commodities Economist at Capital Economics, said that he expects the recent highs in gold to represent the 2024 peak heading into the second half of the year.
Looking ahead, he said that he expects gold prices to fall back to $2,200 by the end of the year as higher prices reduce retail demand in critical global markets.
Hussain noted that the main focus remains on Chinese demand, explaining that because of higher prices, consumers won’t be able to maintain the torrid pace of purchases set in the first half of the year.
Although gold prices are down from their daily highs, prices are still up roughly 19% since the start of the year. August gold futures last traded at $2,467.90 an ounce. Read More
Gold hits record high, backs off a bit on profit taking
Gold prices are trading modestly down at midday Wednesday on some routine profit taking from the shorter-term futures traders after hitting an all-time record high overnight at $2,487.40, basis August Comex futures. Meantime, silver prices are sharply lower. Still, if gold continues to rally in the near term, silver will likely tag along. August gold was last down $6.80 at $2,461.40. September silver was down $1.063 at $30.385.
The main underlying bullish fundamental for gold remains in place: ideas of lower interest rates coming from the major central banks yet this year, including from the Federal Reserve.
Technically, August gold bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,500.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,400.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight record high of $2,487.40 and then at $2,500.00. First support is seen at $2,450.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of $2,424.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.
Image Source: Kitco News
September silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but prices today scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of $32.015. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the June low of $28.90. First resistance is seen at $31.00 and then at today’s high of $31.655. Next support is seen at today’s low of $30.255 and then at $30.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5. Read More
Uncertainty reigns: Stocks, gold, Treasury yields and the DXY fall, Bitcoin’s price stalls at $66k
Asset prices retreated on Wednesday following a slew of new record highs on Tuesday as the threat of curbing U.S. exports to China weighed heavily on tech stocks, resulting in the Nasdaq suffering its worst day in 11 months.
“Stocks declined on Wednesday as the rotation out of high-flying technology shares continued,” said analysts at Secure Digital Markets. “Semiconductor stocks were particularly hard-hit following a Bloomberg News report that the Biden administration is considering stricter trade restrictions if companies continue providing China access to U.S.-made technology.”
For many analysts, the pullback was a welcomed sight for an equities market that has been in ‘up-only’ mode for some time, prompting anxieties about an equally intense downturn. They now look for a period of consolidation, where asset prices establish a new level of support before resuming their uptrend. Read More
Gold futures dip slightly as September rate cut remains highly probable
Image Source: Kitco News
Gold futures basis the most active August contract experienced a marginal decline today, settling at $2463, down $4.70 as of 5:00 PM ET. Despite reaching an intraday high of $2488.40—a new historical peak—profit-taking led to a slight retreat. The outlook for gold remains bullish, bolstered by the high likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September.
The CME's FedWatch tool indicates a 98.1% probability of the Federal Reserve initiating interest rate normalization in September. Interest rate futures traders anticipate a 93.5% chance of a quarter-point cut and a 4.6% likelihood of a half-point reduction. Only a 1.9% probability exists for maintaining the current benchmark rate of 5.25% to 5.5%.
This strong conviction in a September rate cut, the first since the Fed began its restrictive monetary policy in March 2022, stems from recent statements by Fed officials, including Chairman Powell. Speaking at the Economic Club of Washington, Powell noted that inflation reports over the past three months have instilled "greater confidence" in the effectiveness of their restrictive policy. These reports suggest inflation is on a sustained path toward the 2% target, alleviating earlier concerns that had prompted some officials to advocate for tighter policies. Read More
Gold price will average $2,500 per ounce in Q4 2024 as bull case remains intact despite sharp gains – JPMorgan
Gold has decoupled from the interest rate outlook and real yields, and even though prices have already risen sharply, the structural bull case for gold remains intact, according to commodity strategists at J.P. Morgan.
The strategists noted in a report published on July 15 that a weaker U.S. dollar and lower U.S. interest rates traditionally boost the appeal of non-yielding bullion, but since early 2022 gold’s relationship with real yields has been breaking down.
“Gold’s resurgence has come earlier than expected, as it further decouples from real yields,” said Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy at J.P. Morgan. “We have been structurally bullish gold since the fourth quarter of 2022 and with gold prices surging past $2,400 in April, the rally has come earlier and has been much sharper than expected. It has been especially surprising given that it has coincided with Fed rate cuts being priced out and U.S. real yields moving higher due to stronger labor and inflation data in the U.S.” Read More
Mining Company CEO Claims Silver Deficit Is Growing, Institutions Might Drive Prices Higher
With the recent upside in gold prices, silver is another precious metal in the sights of retail investors. Keith Neumeyer, CEO of First Majestic Silver, a Canada-based mining company, talked about the current state of the silver market and how its price should be around $70 per ounce. In an interview, Neumeyer stated that there is a looming deficit surrounding the silver market, of about 240 million ounces, a hole that might create a supply crunch soon.
He stated:
The mining sector only produces 850 million ounces a year. You’re in a 240 million deficit. No wonder why we have a $30 silver, it probably should be $50, $60, or $70.
For Neumeyer, this relative price increase lag has two reasons behind it. The first one has to do with the price manipulation that traders, who only see silver and other commodities as numbers on a screen, can exert. He explains that breakouts are taken as sell or purchase signals and that these traders act without considering silver for its true value, as a commodity relevant for industrial purposes.
The second reason is the relative absence of institutional interest and investment in silver. Neumeyer stated that retail investors are part of the market and that they sell a lot of metal to retail investors. “These big institutions should be supporting this sector for extractive purposes because we need these metals. Yet they’re void, they’re not in this market at all,” he stressed. Read More
Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
