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Gold Price News: Gold Holds Steady Above $2,510 An Ounce
Gold prices broadly held steady on Tuesday, although the market perked up later in the day to notch up a modest day-on-day gain.
Prices rose as high as $2,525 an ounce on Tuesday, compared with around $2,518 an ounce in late trades on Monday. However, prices had spent most of the day trading a few dollars either side of $2,512 an ounce.
German consumer confidence figures came out on Tuesday showing the lowest reading since May, and worse than the market had expected, although similar figures for the US economy painted a brighter-than-expected view.
Nevertheless, the markets have for some time been pricing in a first US rate cut next month, and barring any extreme change in fortune, it now looks unlikely that any fresh economic data would be enough to derail that expectation.
Gold has remained supported since late last week when US Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave clear signals that it was time for interest rate cuts in the US, in a speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium – an annual meeting of central bankers – on August 23. Lower interest rates tend to support non-interest-bearing assets like gold and silver. Read More
Silver Price News: Silver Edges Higher in Calmer Trading
Silver prices ticked higher on Tuesday, in a largely steady day in the precious metals markets. Prices nudged up to trade just above the $30.00 an ounce mark later in the session, having traded a few cents either side of $29.95 an ounce for most of the day. That compared with $29.92 an ounce in late trades on Monday.
The relative calm this week followed a strong rebound for silver on Friday last week, as precious metals markets reacted to comments by US Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who made the case for interest rate cuts next month.
The gains came after Powell said the time had come for monetary policy to adjust, speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming on Friday. The US Fed has kept interest rates steady at 5.25% to 5.5% for the last 12 months in a battle to cool inflation. And with inflation coming down nearer toward the Fed’s target of 2% more recently and concerns over the jobs market, this has given the Fed leeway to cut the cost of borrowing. Lower interest rates tend to boost the appeal of non-yield-bearing assets like gold and silver, as well as stimulating the economy more broadly.
Although silver has been in a short-term bearish trend since late May, the metal has shown a longer-term bullish move since the start of the year when prices were around $22.00 to $23.00 an ounce. Read More
Gold price can go higher as it has not seen a euphoric overshoot - Midas Touch’s Grummes
With its move above $2,500, the gold market continues to defy expectations, and one market analyst believes the precious metal still has room to grow.
In his latest report, Florian Grummes, Managing Director at Midas Touch Consulting, noted that gold’s move last week to a new record high hit his November 2023 price target. He added that the breakout above $2,500 could signal a clear trend phase.
He pointed out that gold’s relatively orderly uptrend strongly indicates that prices can continue to rise. Grummes’ outlook comes as gold prices consolidate their recent gains at elevated levels. December gold futures last traded at $2,551.70 an ounce, down 0.14% on the day.
“Overall, the weekly chart is bullish and suggests higher gold prices in the coming weeks, despite negative divergences. The fact that the rally, which started on October 6, 2023, has not yet had an overshooting finale suggests there might still be significant upward potential,” he said. “Typically, months-long upward movements in the gold market have almost always ended with a vertical overshoot, where the gold price could achieve enormous increases in a short time. This was always followed by a brutal crash, where all gains from the final exaggeration phase were quickly lost.” Read More
China’s Hong Kong gold imports rose 17% in July, but jewelry demand continues to suffer under high prices
China's net gold imports via Hong Kong rose by about 17% in July compared to June, the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department announced on Tuesday.
China imported a net 25.659 tonnes of gold from the Special Economic Region (SAR) in July, up from the 21.919 tonnes imported in June, the government data showed. Total gold imports via Hong Kong were up over 6% to 31.457 tonnes.
But, the increased imports are unlikely to be driven by demand from the county’s jewelry sector, which has been hammered by the record high prices for the precious metal in 2024.
“The major challenge we've encountered in the past two quarters is the continuous rise to historic highs in gold prices, with virtually no corrections,” Wang Lixin, CEO of the World Gold Council (China) told Shine.cn. Read More
Gold achieves new heights: economic factors drive record-breaking performance
In a remarkable display of resilience, gold futures have once again etched its name in the annals of financial history, closing at an unprecedented $2,560.00. This latest achievement, marked by a $6.40 or 0.25% gain in the most active December contract, underscores the enduring appeal of gold as a store of value.
Image Source: Kitco News
The path to this new record was not without its challenges. Early Tuesday trading saw a slight dip as short-term traders capitalized on the gains from the previous two sessions. However, the market quickly rebounded, driven by a persistent decline in the U.S. dollar and opportunistic buying from investors eager to capitalize on the temporary price reduction.
This renewed surge in gold prices comes against the backdrop of an improving consumer sentiment. The Consumer Confidence Index for August painted a picture of cautious optimism, with the current assessment rising to 134.4 from July's 133.1. Similarly, the Expectations Index, which gauges consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, saw a modest uptick to 82.5 from 81.1 in the previous month. Read More
Gold prices won’t see sharp pullbacks like the 1979 and 2011 rallies – Analysis
While the gold rallies to new all-time highs in 1979 and 2011 were followed by price declines of 50% or more, the current price levels may actually be sustainable this time around, according to an analysis from Tim Zyla in the Jerusalem Post.
“Gold has had two major peaks in the past 50 years — in 1979, and 2011 — but 2024 just joined the club after gold recently broke through a trend line connecting the two previous tops 32 years apart,” he wrote, sharing a chart which shows the yellow metal’s break above its 45-year-old historical trendline.
Image Source: Kitco News
Zyla suggested that the key question is whether this milestone should be interpreted as bearish or bullish. “While conventional wisdom suggests a linear chart is hardly conclusive evidence of any one-directional move, let's compare the world economies in 1979 and 2011 to gain insight into gold's next move,” he said. Read More
Gold, silver sell off as USDX rallies, oil drops
Gold and silver prices are solidly lower in midday U.S. trading Wednesday, on more profit-taking in the futures markets, prompted in part by bearish outside-market forces at mid-week that include a sharply higher U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil prices. December gold was last down $19.20 at $2,533.40 and September silver was down $0.84 at $29.13.
Improved trader and investor risk appetite in the marketplace this week is also a negative for the safe-haven metals. The Middle East tensions remain high but have not escalated, as many expected, after the weekend military exchange between Israel and Hezbollah. And, Iran has not retaliated since the Israeli assassinations of Iran’s proxy officials. One school of thought is that Iran does not want to directly attack Israel because Iran thinks that would give Israel and its vastly superior air power the green light to take out Iran’s key nuclear installations that most believe are trying to make a nuclear bomb. One Middle East strategist said Israel has been waiting for a good excuse to seriously degrade Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
Technically, December gold bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage, but prices scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart today. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,600.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,475.00. First resistance is seen at $2,550.00 and then at the overnight high of $2,564.30. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,527.80 and then at $2,506.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.
Image Source: Kitco News
September silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, as prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $31.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $28.00. First resistance is seen at $29.50 and then at $30.00. Next support is seen at $29.00 and then at last week’s low of $28.795. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0. Read More
Image Source: Kitco News
No shelter for traders as stocks, cryptos, and gold correct lower
Asset prices trended lower on Wednesday as stock traders sat on their hands awaiting Nvidia’s after-hours earnings report, while most investors saw little motivation to increase their exposure to risk with no positive stimuli on the horizon before the next FOMC meeting.
While expectations for a rate cut in September remain at 100%, the Fed's interest rate decision is still another 20 days away, and other economic developments continue to have a negative effect on global markets.
“In case anyone had any lingering doubts regarding [Fed Chair Jerome] Powell’s flip to full-on dovish policy, everything became crystal clear at the Jackson Hole symposium last week,” said market analyst Bloodgood. “During his speech at this crucial event, Powell was confident in a soft landing as inflation is approaching the 2% target, while the weakening of the labor market means that rates need to go down.”
“This is, of course, excellent news for risk-on assets (no wonder that the S&P 500 had its highest weekly close ever), but the imminent rate cut has set off a fresh wave of worry about the yen carry trade that I covered in detail early this month,” he added. “Back then, only a fraction of the capital caught up in this trade was forced to bail, and there’s no telling how many trillions of dollars are still in there.” Read More
‘The [gold] ship is crowded. Do you have a slot secured on the lifeboat?’ – TD Securities’ Ghali
The long gold trade is more crowded than ever, and despite the strong macro environment and imminent Fed rate cuts, the risk of a significant price pullback is growing by the day, according to TD Securities’ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali.
In a research note published Monday, Ghali said that even though the Federal Reserve is almost certain to cut its benchmark interest rate at the upcoming September meeting, the chances of a correction in the gold market are increasing every day.
“Our gauge of macro fund positioning in Gold is now at the highest levels recorded in the depths of the pandemic,” he wrote, adding that market positioning has reached “the local highs set in Sep 2019, and previously in Jul 2016. Symmetrically, extreme short positioning from this cohort marked the lows in 2018 and 2022,” he noted.
“This time around, CTAs are also max long and Shanghai traders' net length has also inched towards record highs,” he said. “Algos are also vulnerable in silver, with most scenarios for prices pointing to selling activity on the horizon, barring a break north of $31.5/oz.”
Ghali said the current setup is “the antithesis to the early-year dichotomy in positioning that helped to propel Gold on its trajectory towards current all-time highs.” Read More
Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
Featured Image - Source: Unsplash
