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Gold/Silver: Is $1900 the new ceiling or floor?
Looking at the performance data, Gold has gained 2.4% this week, up 3.63% YTD and up 6.75% over the past 52 weeks. Last year, Gold's lack of performance stemmed from accelerating growth in conjunction with rising inflation. That was why you could select any other commodity or any high growth/high beta stock and come out a winner until the November 19th Nasdaq high. From that point, you can see inflation remains sticky (i.e., Crude Oil, Gasoline, Agriculture) while growth stalled and decelerated from the emergence of Omicron. Remember that Gold's best performing economic environment is always stagflation and deflation (both have declining growth), while reflation (rising growth) tends to leave Gold in the dust.
Gold is currently operating with the best of both worlds, the right economic environment, and a geopolitical tailwind which should keep corrections shallow. The Fed caught itself between a rock and a hard place by waiting so long to raise rates that it will begin in a slowing economic environment. That will keep deflation here for the foreseeable future; therefore, you should be "selling the rips" in stocks and "buying the dips" in Gold. Read More
Looking for the Miners to confirm gold breakout
In a flight to safety, as continued signs of escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict and some less-than-stellar economic data ushered in risk-off sentiment, the gold price reached strong overhead resistance at $1900 on Thursday. With 100% certainty of the Federal Reserve monetary punchbowl about to be emptied, the scary geopolitical headlines, widespread inflation, and deteriorating economic data has gold prices on the cusp of a major upside breakout.
In last week’s missive, I noted the likelihood of a bullish breakout of the gold price from an 18-month bullish symmetrical triangle awaiting a strong catalyst to break in either direction soon. With investors recognizing the 13-year party on Wall Street might be coming to an end, along with the realization of cryptocurrencies not being a hedge against inflation, the addition of geopolitical tensions is fueling an upside breakout in the safe-haven metal. Read More
The Metals, Money, and Markets Weekly by Mickey Fulp - February 18, 2022
Once gold price hits $2,000, expect a 'sharp pullback' - Florian Grummes on crack-up boom, civil unrest, and Bitcoin target
It's only a matter of time before double-digit inflation hits the U.S. said Florian Grummes, managing director of Midas Touch Consulting.
"We are on track for that. It's just a question of time. It could happen this year, maybe next year. If the Fed indeed starts to hike and starts to taper…you see the markets already giving a clear signal, so I don't think they can do it aggressively at all, if they do it at all. They probably will roll back rather quickly during the year because end of the year we have midterm elections," Grummes told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News.
Gold's multi-year bull cycle is still continuing, Grummes said.
"Gold has done everything to disguise its true intentions. In hindsight, the flash crash of last August was actually the start of a multi-month uptrend. Today, we are trading $200 higher already. Gold has been correcting since August 2020. Over the last 16 months it went into a triangle and I think the last important low was mid-December, $1,750 and since then gold has been climbing higher," he said. Read More
Gold bulls in full control next week as prices hold near $1,900 on geopolitical concerns
The threat of a potential war in Eastern Europe and fear that central banks won't be able to contain inflation has pushed gold prices to $1,900 an ounce, an eight-month high. Solid bullish sentiment indicates that price could go higher in the near term.
The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey shows that a significant majority of market analysts and retail investors are bullish on gold in the near term. While there are concerns that any easing tensions between the U.S. and Russia could cool safe-haven demand, analysts note that gold remains well supported on dips.
"There is strong technical momentum in gold as prices test resistance at $1,900, but you don't want to chase the market. Look for buying opportunities," said Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging with Walsh Trading. Read More
Gold riding the momentum wave to an eight-month high
Geopolitical uncertainty continues to dominate market sentiment, and gold has been able to ride this new wave of fear and momentum to an eight-month high of $1,900 an ounce.
Despite gold's 3% rally this week, the question remains: can the precious metal hold on to this momentum if and when tensions between the U.S. and Russia start to ease. As I have mentioned before, this is one of the reasons why I have never been a fan of buying gold as a safe-haven asset.
However, I have also noted that this time feels slightly different as inflation remains a dark cloud hovering over markets and exacting its toll on the global economy. As central banks worldwide react to rising consumer prices, many analysts are starting to ring the warning bell that monetary policy tightening could push the global economy into a recession.
Friday, Bank of America's chief investment strategist, Michael Hartnett, said in his latest note that "recession risks [are] rising." He said that he sees a scenario where over the next six months, "rates shock morphs into recession shock." Read More
What's next for gold price? Geopolitics shock markets, growth outlook at risk
Don't be surprised to see some exaggerated moves in gold as the market goes into a geopolitically-tensed long weekend, analysts told Kitco News. But the outlook for gold remains bullish as the precious metal tests $1,900 an ounce.
It has been chaotic trading in the stock market this week with piece-meal updates on the geopolitical situation in Ukraine keeping investors in a risk-off mood. Also, the repricing of the Federal Reserve's rate hikes to battle four-decade high inflation saw investors leave risky assets and embrace safe havens such as gold.
Russia's military exercises are scheduled to end on Sunday, with troops' movements being the key development being watched. Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden remains convinced that Moscow is planning an "imminent invasion."
All eyes are on the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Europe next week.
"Right now, investors are having a hard time handling all of these geopolitical risks, headlines, and incremental updates. There is not going to be an immediate resolution on Ukraine's situation," OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya told Kitco News. Read More
Gold is making its move as markets hit with geopolitical shock and recession fears
Gold is trading at the highest level in over eight months. And analysts project more gains as we head into a geopolitically uncertain long weekend. Here is a look at Kitco's top three stories: Read More
Gold and silver head into the European session slightly lower
After an initial move higher at the open gold has fallen 0.37% overnight as risk sentiment turned positive. Silver is around half a percent lower. In the rest of the commodities complex, spot WTI is down 1.16% and copper bucked the trend to trade half a percent higher.
Indices in the Asia Pac area were mixed overnight. The Nikkei 225 closed 0.78% lower, ASX 0.16% higher and the Shanghai Composite was unchanged. Futures in Europe are indicating a positive cash open.
In FX markets, the greenback suffered overnight. EUR/USD is trading half a percent higher with the biggest mover AUD/USD (0.61%). In the crypto space, BTC/USD is back below $40k once more after some weekend selling. Read More
Episode 62: Live From The Vault: Can Gold Save Latin America From Inflation?
Feat. Atlas Group partners & Kinesis’ Head of Operations in Latin America
In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined by three experts in the LatAm precious metals space - Alejandro Kapetanakis, Carlos Alfredo Lao, and Martín Aguilar - to contemplate spiraling inflation in the region.
As precious metals industry leaders in Latin America, the trio enlightens Andrew Maguire on the global scale of the inflation problem and presents physical gold as the stable monetary solution for local citizens.
Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
