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GLD holdings explode as investors rush to safety
After being snubbed by investors in 2021, the world's largest gold-backed ETF saw its biggest daily inflow since listing in 2004.
In another sign that investors are flocking to precious metals, SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) reported on Friday its largest inflow in U.S. dollar terms since its listing in 2004, which translated to more than $1.6 billion.
Based on the data provided by the GLD, there were 27.6 metric tons of gold inflows on Friday.
Fluctuations in ETF holdings are a good indicator of investor interest in gold. In 2021, gold ended the year with the biggest loss in six years as analysts pointed to a lack of investor interest as one of the critical triggers behind precious metal's underperformance. And the annual numbers from the GLD revealed a similar trend. Read More
There could me more upside in gold according to Bank of America analysts
Bank of America analysts expect the gold price rally to persist despite a challenging macro backdrop. The report said it was “remarkable” since yields and the dollar tend to be the most critical price drivers of the yellow metal.
Further supporting the gold price are investment flows, which have been “very resilient,” according to BofA analyst and lead author Michael Widmer. In BoA's Global Metals Weekly report, he said gold had disconnected from its traditional drivers because of significant dislocations buried beneath headline inflation, interest rates, and currency moves. These market forces raised the appeal for investors to hold gold in a portfolio.
Widmer said inflation at 7% put the US Fed in a difficult position but cautioned that tighter monetary policy might not be the silver bullet to fix the problem. Read More
Gold holding near $1,850 an ounce following slightly better than expected U.S. Consumer Confidence data
Bullish momentum in the gold market is building as prices hold near a critical resistance point, even following better than expected U.S. consumer confidence.
Tuesday, U.S. Conference Board said that its consumer confidence index fell less than expected to 113.8 in January down from the 115.8 reading in December. The data was better than expected as the consensus forecast looked a reading around 111.4.
The gold market has fallen from its recent session highs but remains in striking distance of critical resistance at $1,850 an ounce. Spot gold last traded at $1,845.90 an ounce, up 0.15% on the day.
"Consumer confidence moderated in January, following gains in the final three months of 2021,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at The Conference Board, in the report. "The Present Situation Index improved, suggesting the economy entered the new year on solid footing. However, expectations about short-term growth prospects weakened, pointing to a likely moderation in growth during the first quarter of 2022. Read More
Fed in focus as IMF cuts U.S. growth outlook, cites tighter monetary conditions
The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth outlook for 2022 to 4.4%, with the most significant downward revisions reported in the world's two largest economies — the U.S. and China.
The updated global growth outlook is 0.5 percentage points less than previous estimates. IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) report pointed to the growing number of Covid-19 cases, supply chain disruptions, and higher inflation as the main reasons behind its downgrade.
"The global economy enters 2022 in a weaker position than previously expected," the report stated. "Global growth is expected to slow to 3.8 percent in 2023. Although this is 0.2 percentage point higher than in the previous forecast, the upgrade largely reflects a mechanical pickup after current drags on growth dissipate in the second half of 2022."
In the U.S., the GDP is now said to grow 4% in 2022, which is 1.2 percentage points lower than previously thought. The IMF highlighted the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy tightening, supply chain disruptions, and Build Back Better fiscal package removal. Read More
Gold and silver ready to break higher while bitcoin languishes - market analyst
The gold market appears to be ending its consolidation period. According to one technical analyst, it is on the verge of testing new record highs above $2,000 an ounce.
In a recent interview with Kitco News, Michael Moor, creator of Moor Analytics, described gold's month's long price action as a macro bearish consolidation period. He added that the gold market could see one more move to the downside, but it is ultimately ready to push higher.
The comments come as gold prices rallied to a new two-month high, testing critical resistance at $1,850 an ounce. Moor said he is looking for a break above $1,866 an ounce to confirm that prices are heading back to their all-time highs.
"If I can push to my initial resistance level, then I would look for a decent penetration above that," he said. "Ultimately, I think with a breakout, we could see a lot higher prices than the 2020 highs." Read More
Gold hits 2-mo. high on safe-haven buying; FOMC looms
Gold prices are higher and hit a two-month high in midday trading Tuesday. Silver prices are holding slight gains. It's a general "risk-off" trading mentality in the marketplace early this week, and that's prompting buying interest in the safe-haven metals. February gold futures were last up $6.60 at $1,848.30 and March Comex silver was last up $0.04 at $23.84 an ounce.
Russia appears poised to invade Ukraine and that has the marketplace anxious. NATO allies are responding by sending arms to Ukraine and putting NATO troops on higher alert, including some U.S. troops. The situation appears to be getting graver by the day. Inflation worries are also spooking traders and investors.
U.S. stock indexes are solidly lower at midday. The major U.S. indexes hit seven-month lows on Monday and are very wobbly now. Serious near-term technical damage has been inflicted upon the U.S. stock indexes, to suggest they have put in near-term market tops.
Image Source: Kitco News
Technically, gold bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the November high of $1,881.90. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,800.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,853.40 and then at $1,865.00. First support is seen at today's low of $1,834.40 and then at this week's low of $1,829.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0. Read More
All eyes on the Fed, but can it 'soothe' markets? Here's what to expect
After a few wild trading days of stocks and crypto selloffs contrasted by solid gold prices, markets have zeroed in on the Federal Reserve meeting this Wednesday. But can the U.S. central bank provide any relief in light of all the hawkish expectations? Analysts weigh in.
It is widely expected that the Fed will keep its monetary policy on hold during the January meeting. But this time around, it is all about what to expect in March.
Many market observers have suggested that the Fed is unlikely to walk back its hawkish promises of wrapping up tapering sooner-than-expected, introducing at least three rate hikes this year, and looking at balance sheet runoff after completing tapering.
"The focus is on this week's FOMC meeting, with a growing cohort of participants hoping that the Fed will manage to provide a soothing tone for markets. Considering that Chair Powell's primary goal is to prevent a de-anchoring of inflation expectations, it's unlikely that the Fed will pivot from their plan to start hiking rates as soon as March, and start quantitative tightening soon after," said strategists at TD Securities. Read More
Gold has room to fall before March rate hike - Standard Chartered's Cooper
The gold market has pushed to a two-month high, testing resistance around $1,850 as markets expect the Federal Reserve to lay the groundwork for a rate hike in March, following Wednesday's monetary policy meeting.
According to one analyst, the gold market will be sensitive chatter about aggressive U.S. monetary policy.
"While we believe that gold prices have already priced in a number of macro headwinds, including rate hikes and USD strength, gold has also found downside support from price-elastic physical demand. Upside momentum could be difficult to maintain ahead of an expected hike," said Suki Cooper, precious metals analyst at Standard Chartered Bank. Read More
Expert forecasts: what to expect from gold, silver, cryptos, and equities
Combining Alden's breadth of macroeconomics knowledge with Soloway's powerful technical analysis tools, this panel will give traders and investors a complete top-down picture of where asset prices are headed and how to best execute on trade ideas.
Is 2022 the year we see capital rotation out of risk assets like cryptos and stocks into safe-haven assets like gold? Will the laggards of 2021 become the leaders of 2022 and vice versa? How much upside is left in the global equity markets? Will the global economy be plagued by stagflation, inflation, or deflation? Moderated by Kitco News' David Lin, this power panel will address these questions, and more, as well as take questions directly from the audience. Read More
Investors are worried about the Fed and heightened tensions in Ukraine
Although market participants anticipate the certainty of a series of interest rate hikes, the Fed's completion of their tapering of monthly asset purchases. There is still concern about the Federal Reserve's plan to reduce inflationary pressures by tightening its monetary policy. However, questions remain about how hawkish or aggressive their updated monetary policy will be.
In other words, the devil is in the details, and the details will be made much clearer to us tomorrow when the Federal Reserve convenes its FOMC meeting, releases its updated monetary policy statement and Chairman Powell holds a press conference. The statement, as well as a press conference, could reveal the Fed's plans to reduce their asset sheet, which is approaching $9 trillion. It will also confirm if the tapering process in November will conclude as expected in mid-March. Most importantly, market participants will understand how quickly the Fed intends to raise rates over the next two years.
There is also real concern over the increased tensions regarding Russia's buildup of troops and equipment on their border with Ukraine and potential responses by the United States and NATO.
Image Source: Kitco News
Collectively these concerns have been highly supportive of gold, taking gold to the highest level since the middle of November. After trading to a double bottom on December 15 (which matches the lows of November 3), gold has moved up substantially. Interestingly, both lows of approximately $1760 occurred on the concluding day of the Federal Reserve meeting for November and December. Since the December low, we have seen gold move from a low of $1752 to today's intraday high of $1854.20, just over a $100 move.
As of 4:30 PM EST gold futures basis the most active April 2022 contract has backed off of the lows seen today and is currently fixed at $1848.30 after factoring in today's gain of $6.60. Mild headwinds from dollar strength did not have any substantial effect on gold today.
Our technical studies confirm that gold's high came in slightly above the first level of resistance that we have identified which occurs at $1851. This resistance level is based upon the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from a data set (data set one) beginning on November 3 with gold at $1750 and concluding on November 16 when gold reached a high of $1879.60. Read More
U.S. dollar 'apocalypse' coming in 10 years, more countries will make Bitcoin legal tender
Over the last 300 years, most major global fiat currencies have depreciated substantially, if not lost all of their value, and investors should not bet against this trend said Max Keiser, host of The Keiser Report and co-host of The Orange Pill Podcast.
"I think over the next 10 years, as you see these major economies like the U.S. and China, who are carrying debt loads at 300% of GDP, and they're going to just print their way out of this, we're talking about a fiat money apocalypse," Keiser told Michelle Makori, editor-in-chief of Kitco News.
Keiser's solution for hedging against an inevitable dollar debasement is to buy Bitcoin.
"I'd rather be cautious and load up on as much Bitcoin as I possibly can now and not try to play games on the timing side. What I do know now for sure is that these fiat [currencies are] going to go to zero. The reason is why Bitcoin is already in the tens of thousands of dollars a coin is because all of the major fiat money in the world is in a hyper-inflationary collapse against Bitcoin," he said. Read More
Gold and silver edge lower ahead of the European open
Gold is trading marginally lower (-0.12%) after holding on to gains yesterday the yellow metal is trading at $1845/oz. Silver however is heading into the European open softer (-0.50%) after suffering three straight negative closes. In the rest of the commodities complex, both copper (0.81%) and spot WTI (0.50%) traded well overnight.
Indices in the Asia Pac area were mixed overnight. The Nikkei 225 (-0.44%) and ASX (-2.49%) dropped while the Shanghai Composite (0.66%) pushed higher. Futures in Europe are pointing towards a positive open.
FX markets were pretty quiet but USD/CAD fell -0.23%. Elsewhere in cryptocurrencies, BTC/USD moved 0.94% higher. Read More
Silver ETF's see some decent inflow in recent moves
The SLV silver ETF showed its heaviest investor inflows since the Reddit induced silver squeeze ramp of late-January last year. A jump in demand for new shares however saw the world's largest silver-backed ETF end the day needing an extra 281 tonnes of bullion to back its value.
While reversing all of the SLV's outflows so far in 2022, Monday's inflow was a fraction of the 1,766 tonnes added on 2 February 2021, a record which capped a 3-day expansion of 19.3% in the SLV's shares in issue after the aforementioned WallStreetBets short-squeeze. Read More
Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Wednesday 26th January
Kinesis Gold Price Analysis: At first glance, it could be easy to conclude that gold has failed to react to the rise in fear on markets and the corresponding drops on equities; the price is tracking steadily higher rather than any demonstrating any sharp spikes.
However, in the context of falling markets with most asset classes losing money in recent days, even standing still is helpful for an investor’s portfolio. Gold is still performing its role as a safe haven, it seems.
The lack of a more sustained breakout can be attributed to two factors: the likelihood of rising interest rates punishing gold for its lack of yield, and the psychologically important level of $1,850 an ounce providing substantial resistance to gold’s ability to climb much higher.
Image Source: Kinesis
Gold’s direction from here will be strongly influenced by the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates later today. If the rate remains unchanged as is forecast, then there may be more room for gold to gain, but an unexpectedly early hike would see gold drop.
Kinesis Silver Price Analysis: Read More
Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
