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Gold/Silver: Don't chase; wait for a signal
Volatility has widened over the past two weeks, with "average true ranges" in the number of commodities we track all hitting pandemic level highs. The only difference is that it is the mirror opposite, with prices shooting higher instead of lower. For instance, coming into Friday's open, Wheat prices have gained 40% on the week, along with Heating Oil up 28% and Gasoline up 19%. The economic setup is more for stagflation with a pivot to deflation in the coming months. These two dominant market regimes will allow us plenty of opportunities to buy dips in Gold, Silver while shorting U.S. Equities.
Daily Gold Chart
Image Source: Kitco News
The daily chart supports Gold inching higher with two notable standouts. First, we are back at major 3-star resistance, noting two technical failures in November 2020 and January 6 of 2021. Additionally, Gold is operating as a safe haven with at least $100 of geopolitical risk premium built into the pricing, while key correlations to the U.S. Dollar remain at 77%. Meaning if the ECB intervenes in the Euro currencies fall while tensions ease, you could see a considerable setback in Gold prices. Read More
Record-high metal prices are good, but palladium producer Sibanye-Stillwater has a caution
Russian sanctions have pushed palladium to a record high, but one of the top producers of the metal sees some problems with the market.
Neal Froneman is the CEO of Sibanye-Stillwater (JSE: SSW). He spoke to Kitco on Thursday.
Sibanye-Stillwater is one of the world's largest primary producers of platinum, palladium, and rhodium and is also a top-tier gold producer. It produces other PGMs, such as iridium and ruthenium, along with chrome, copper, and nickel as by-products. Read More
'In a moment like this gold really does have a safe-haven status' - Triple Flag Precious Metals
During one of the most serious geopolitical events in decades, gold performed said Triple Flag Precious Metal's CEO and founder, Shaun Usmar.
On Friday Usmar recorded Kitco Roundtable with Mining Audiences Manager Michael McCrae and Kitco correspondent Paul Harris.
Triple Flag (TSX:TFPM,) is a gold-focused streaming and royalty company. The panel talked about gold's rise after Russia invaded Ukraine. When the news broke a week ago Wednesday, spot gold crested $1,940 an ounce hitting a 20-month high while Bitcoin lost about 7%.
"All that rhetoric around Bitcoin and crypto being a new store of digital gold...in a moment like this gold really does have that safe-haven status," said Usmar. Listen to the podcast
Strong bullish sentiment could push gold price to $2,000
Gold could be on pace to hit $2,000 next week as the precious metal sees significant bullish sentiment and extraordinary safe-haven demand due to Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine, which has entered its second week.
The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey shows that all Wall Street analysts surveyed are bullish on gold next week. A strong majority of retail investors also expect to see higher prices in the near term.
"If gold can't get to $2,000 in this environment with so much risk and uncertainty, then I don't know what would do it," said Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging with Walsh Trading. Read More
Inflation and the crisis in Ukraine cause gold to surge, now only $27 away from $2,000
Gold prices have been moving to a higher value at a pace not witnessed in quite some time. On Monday, gold futures basis most active April 2022 contract opened at $1920 and closed at $1900 after recovering from a low of $1893. On Tuesday gold prices gained over $40 and accelerated the defined uptrend that began the first week of January. The rally has continued today.
As of 4:22 PM EST, April futures are currently up by $39.40 (2.00%) and fixed at $1974.90, which means that gold gained $74.90 this week resulting in a net weekly gain from Monday’s low to today’s current price of 4.3264%.
When added to the price advance of January 31, that accomplishment reveals a profound fact. In just over one month (January 31 to February 4) gold prices have gained $194.90, a percentage gain of 10.94%. Read More
Gold price to hit $2,150 as Russia escalates war in Ukraine
As Russia's invasion of Ukraine intensified this week, gold spiked to $1,970 an ounce. New sanctions against Russia triggered massive jumps in commodity prices as well. Wheat is up about 40% on the week, palladium is up 22%, and oil is up 20%.
Fears of stagflation also started to creep in, with concerns over high commodity prices impacting inflation and slowing growth. Here's a look at Kitco's top three stories of the week: Read More
Fewer and fewer alternatives other than gold
Russia's war on Ukraine has entered its second week and it is no surprise that people are looking for safety wherever they can find it. Right now that happens to be the U.S. dollar and gold.
Since Russia's invasion, roughly one million Ukrainian refugees have fled to Europe, creating a significant humanitarian crisis. The war is also creating major global economic uncertainty. The Russian economy is all but crippled as businesses cut ties with the aggressor nation.
As expected, the war is having a major impact on oil prices. Supply disruptions have pushed prices back above $100 a barrel, to their highest level since 2008. Rising energy prices are adding pushing inflation pressures higher. This environment continues to create major volatility in equity markets, which hovers in correction territory.
With fewer and fewer alternatives, investors are turning to gold and precious metals en masse. Prices are looking to end the week with an impressive 4% gain and many analysts continue to say that it's only a matter of time before prices push above $2,000 an ounce. Read More
'Tremendous momentum' in gold price: Watch out for next week's U.S. inflation number as geopolitics continue to drive metals
There is strong momentum in the gold space as investors repositioned themselves going into another uncertain weekend with all eyes on Russia's intensified attack on Ukraine.
Gold gained more than $35 on Friday as Russian forces took control over Europe's biggest nuclear power plant in Ukraine in a very alarming assault.
"Unfortunately, there are no signs that you are going to see a de-escalation of the war in Ukraine any time soon. As we take a look at the impact that is having on the global economy, you'll see global growth concerns and inflationary pressures become dominant themes," OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya told Kitco News. "That will likely lead to further safe-haven flows, and gold is going to shine."
The macro picture is set up for gold to hit $2,000 an ounce as other commodities, including oil, palladium, nickel, wheat, and corn surge.
"The way things are looking, you have too many key commodities that are likely to continue to keep on rising — grains, metals, energy. We'll see elevated prices for the foreseeable future," Moya said. Read More
'Gold had a very nice week' - Mickey Fulp
Mickey Fulp wraps up the week in market and commodity moves.
He recorded a podcast with Kitco's Michael McCrae on Friday.
Some of the commodities covered were uranium, copper, silver, gold, and oil. Listen to the podcast
Gold drives to $2,000 an ounce, oil breaks $130 a barrel
The Ukraine-Russia conflict continues to roil markets, with oil prices pushing to its highest level since 2008 and gold prices hitting $2,000 an ounce.
Oil prices have rocketed higher following the Asian open. While off their highs, April crude oil futures last traded at $122.79 a barrel, up 7% on the day. According to media reports, the Biden administration is in talks with European leaders to consider cutting off Russian crude oil exports.
The war in Eastern Europe is also driving safe-haven demand into gold as prices rise to their highest level since August 2020. April gold futures last traded at $2,001.80 an ounce, up 1.79% on the day. Read More
Gold prints above $2000/oz overnight ahead of the European open
Gold rocketed higher overnight and broke through the $2000/oz area. The price has since retraced slightly and is at $1987/oz ahead of the European open. Silver is 0.43% higher at $25.76/oz. In the rest of the commodities complex, copper rose 1.88% to break $5/lb and spot WTI is 8.7% higher at $125/bbl.
Risk sentiment took another hit overnight. The Nikkei 225 (-2.94%), ASX (-1.02%) and Shanghai Composite (-2.17%) all closed lower. Futures in Europe are also looking bearish.
In FX markets, the dollar index printed above 99.00 and the biggest mover was NZD and AUD which both rove 0.60% against the greenback. In the crypto space, BTC/USD is trading 1% lower. Read More
Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
