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"Bitcoin has plunged below $90,000, broken its 50-week EMA, triggered a death cross, and sent sentiment to its lowest point since 2022. With massive liquidations, ETF outflows, a hawkish Fed, and a brutal leverage flush, it looks like Bitcoin has officially entered a bear market — but the story isn’t that simple.
On-chain data tells the opposite story: exchange reserves are at 7-year lows, long-term holders still hold 70% of supply, MVRV signals accumulation, and global liquidity is hitting new highs. In this video, we break down whether this is a true bear market or a mid-cycle shakeout — and the key levels that will define Bitcoin’s next big move."
~ Coin Bureau
The video discusses the crash of Bitcoin below $90,000, which erased all of its gains for 2025 and caused the Fear and Greed Index to collapse to its lowest reading since the 2022 bear market. This sharp 29% drop from the recent peak of over $126,000 was attributed to a "perfect storm" of negative catalysts, including hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve that reduced the odds of a December interest rate cut, a US government shutdown creating a liquidity vacuum, and institutional buyers turning into sellers, leading to nearly $2.8 billion in net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs in November. Ultimately, the price action was viewed as a "mechanical forced deleveraging event" amplified by massive liquidations of over-leveraged positions.
The analysis grapples with whether this downturn signifies the start of a new bear market. By the traditional finance definition of a 20% drop from a peak, Bitcoin is technically in a bear market. However, by the crypto definition, it is considered a "severe mid-cycle correction" that has broken key technical structures like the 50-week Exponential Moving Average. Conversely, the on-chain fundamentals signal a powerful bullish counternarrative: exchange reserves are at a 7-year low, the MVRV ratio is consistent with a mid-cycle accumulation phase, and global liquidity is near all-time highs. The video concludes that the battle will be fought between the bearish technical signals and the bullish on-chain fundamentals, with the Federal Reserve's December FOMC meeting being the potential deciding factor for Bitcoin's fate in 2026.
0:00 Intro – Bitcoin crashes below $90K, fear grips the market.
2:03 The Crash – From $126K to $89K amid leverage wipeouts and ETF outflows.
5:34 Technical Signals – 50-week EMA break and “death cross” flash warning.
8:24 On-Chain Strength – Exchange reserves fall, MVRV shows accumulation.
11:43 Outlook – Macro tailwinds suggest mid-cycle correction, not full bear.
Source - Coin Bureau YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G34B5Ktwd8c
Disclaimer: This video is provided for informational purposes only, and not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
