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"America’s labor market just hit a turning point - unemployment is climbing, job openings are shrinking, and markets are betting big on Fed rate cuts.
But does this signal the start of a recession, or just a soft patch that could ultimately lead to a rally for risk assets? In this video, we dive into US jobs data, global labor market trends, and lessons from crises of the past.
The headlines don’t really tell the whole story. Watch this video to catch the nuances that could shape how markets move next."
~ Coin Bureau
The video discusses the U.S. labor market, which is showing signs of weakening, with a decrease in hiring and an increase in layoffs. The August jobs report revealed a jump in unemployment to 4.3%, and for the first time since 2021, the number of unemployed Americans now exceeds the number of job openings. This trend is not isolated to the U.S., as other countries like China and Germany are also experiencing rising unemployment rates, indicating a global economic slowdown.
The video also puts the current situation into historical context, explaining that unemployment is a lagging indicator that typically rises after financial markets have already reached their bottom and started to recover. The soft labor data has increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, which would likely lead to aggressive monetary easing. The video suggests that if the data remains soft but not severe, it could create a positive environment for risk assets like stocks and Bitcoin, as it would likely lead to Fed accommodation without a major economic catastrophe.
0:00 Intro
1:01 Unemployment Levels
4:09 Crises of The Past
7:05 The Nuances
8:54 Recession Odds
11:09 Market Impact
Source - Coin Bureau YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fM7QKrZWTDo
Disclaimer: This video is provided for informational purposes only, and not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
