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"New token launches often come with plenty of hype - until they (typically) dump hard in the following weeks.
In this video, we’re diving into a brutally honest report that breaks down why some of the most hyped tokens of 2025 flopped hard... and why others did not.
It’s not just about buzzwords and big VC names - there are real, repeatable patterns you can spot that help filter out the winners from the losers. If you want a smarter way to navigate launches, this one’s for you."
~ Coin Bureau
Based on a report from Arachus Finance, this video breaks down why some new token launches succeed while others fail. The report analysed ten major token launches from January to May 2025, finding that six of them ended the period below their launch prices. The report identified several key themes contributing to these failures, including a rapid drying up of liquidity after the initial launch, high fully diluted valuations that deter retail buyers, and a negative feedback loop where early poor performance leads to further selling pressure. The research highlights that tokens that outperform Bitcoin in their first few weeks tend to continue their strong performance, while those that lag rarely recover, emphasizing the importance of early relative strength.
The video further explores factors like the valuation gap between private sales and public launches, circulating token supply, and market timing. Tokens launched with a significant price premium over private investor rates, such as Zora and Bera Chain, were often punished by the market. Conversely, projects with a lower initial circulating supply and a clear vesting schedule, such as Initia, tended to perform better. The video also stresses the influence of the broader market, noting that launches during periods of sideways Bitcoin price action often have a better chance of success than those following a major BTC rally. The video concludes with a checklist for traders, emphasizing the importance of analysing private round valuations, tokenomics, narrative fit, and market timing to improve their chances of success.
0:00 Intro
0:36 Report Overview
4:12 Early Strength Is Good
7:57 Supply And Private Investor Markups
13:08 BTC’s Shadow
16:54 Volume As The Heartbeat
Source - Coin Bureau YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9yQuj03Vp70
Disclaimer: This video is provided for informational purposes only, and not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
