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"“This time is different” - four of the most dangerous words in crypto. But let’s be honest, even if we’ve never said it out loud, most of us have wondered if it could be true.
But, what if we told you that it actually might be? Some market analysts argue that the crypto market has historically mirrored the business cycle, which now seems to be extending into 2026. Others believe crypto is more closely tied to the global liquidity cycle, which still appears firmly on track.
So today, we’ll explore how the business cycle and the global liquidity cycles relate to crypto, which theory holds merit, and explore the controversial question: could this time really be different?
See you at the like button."
~ Coin Bureau
The video explores the theory that the crypto market cycle, traditionally tied to Bitcoin's 4-year halving cycle, might be extending into mid-2026, aligning instead with the broader economic cycle. Macro analysts like Raoul Pal suggest the crypto market has historically correlated with the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Index, with peaks and bottoms in the ISM corresponding to Bitcoin's cycle tops and lows. This pattern has recently broken, as the 4-year cycle sine wave has peaked, but the ISM has remained subdued for longer than expected, signalling economic weakness. Pal attributes this extension to the debt refinancing cycle, arguing that the average debt maturity increased after the pandemic, extending the liquidity cycle and consequently the crypto cycle. The current ISM is projected to rise into late 2026, which suggests the crypto bull market could continue until then.
However, not all analysts agree with the reliance on the ISM. Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital argues that economic indicators like the ISM have a weak correlation with global liquidity, which is the true driver of markets. He suggests that global liquidity is peaking and could soon contract due to central banks not being sufficiently accommodative to credit markets, potentially leading to a market downturn. The video notes that the US economy presents a mixed picture, showing signs of slowing but still chugging along, often masked by factors like inflation and deceptive unemployment data. Ultimately, the video concludes that it is too soon to say if this time is truly different, as Q4 is just beginning, and crypto could still follow its historical pattern of a parabolic breakout before a bear market. It is also noted that changes in central bank, commercial bank, or government actions could surge liquidity and immediately change the market forecast.
0:00 Intro
1:08 ISM Thesis Explained
5:02 Arguments Against The ISM Thesis
7:52 Is The Economy Sliding Into A Recession?
11:12 What’s Driving Economic Growth Right Now?
13:59 Is This Time Really Different?
Source - Coin Bureau YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-RdYun8QeU
Disclaimer: This video is provided for informational purposes only, and not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
