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"Q4 has historically been a bullish period for both stocks and crypto, but not many people understand why. More importantly, most people don’t know that this bullish period is also marked by volatility.
That’s why it’s important to understand why Q4 is so bullish, and to know which indicators to watch to get a sense of where markets shift in the short term.
Today we explain it all, including why Q4 is bullish, which indicators to watch, and how high your favorite coins and tokens could go. Enjoy!"
~ Coin Bureau
The fourth quarter (Q4) of the fourth year in the crypto four-year cycle has historically been the most bullish period for the crypto market, with Bitcoin and Ethereum seeing massive returns in past cycles, such as 2013, 2017, and 2020. This historical trend is primarily attributed to two factors: macro trends and crypto market dynamics. On the macro side, institutional investors often increase their market allocations toward year-end to secure solid returns, which can cause stocks and riskier assets like crypto to perform well. On the crypto side, the process of coins moving from "paper hands" (short-term speculators) to "diamond hands" (long-term believers) over the cycle restricts supply, leading to more sustainable and explosive rallies in the later stages. This cycle's Q4 is expected to be particularly volatile and potentially explosive due to institutional investors needing to "catch up" on returns after being sidelined earlier in the year.
To navigate the volatility of Q4, the video suggests watching two key indicators. The first is the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies and is a proxy for global financial liquidity; a falling DXY is generally bullish for stocks and crypto. The second key indicator is Bitcoin dominance, which measures Bitcoin's share of the total crypto market cap. Historically, Bitcoin dominance tends to spike one final time in Q4 as Bitcoin rallies to new highs, attracting attention before speculative capital rotates into altcoins, causing Bitcoin dominance to fall and eventually bottoming out, which often marks the cycle top. Basic technical analysis suggests the altcoin market cap (excluding Bitcoin and stablecoins) could grow to around $3 trillion, indicating quality altcoins could see average returns of approximately 4x, with smaller-cap, high-quality altcoins potentially seeing larger gains.
0:00 Intro
1:07 Why Is Q4 Bullish For The Markets?
4:14 Why Is Q4 Bullish For Crypto?
8:36 Macro Indicator To Watch In Q4
12:33 Crypto Indicator To Watch In Q4
15:59 How High Will Crypto Go In Q4?
Source - Coin Bureau YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCxEqunyDYc
Disclaimer: This video is provided for informational purposes only, and not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
