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Gold Price News: Gold Continues to Slide as US Dollar Rebounds
The new week started with gold extending the decline seen in the final hours of Friday, with a correction that could also be linked with the rebound of the USD. Bullion is traded at around $1,950/1,960 with a graphical and technical scenario slightly weakening.
From a technical perspective, the price seems to draw a “head and shoulders pattern”, which could potentially open space for further decline, once confirmed.
Despite this, gold is still looking for a clear directionality, after the recent gains that brought the price up to $2,010 per ounce. There are support zones placed at $1,935 and $1,920, while a recovery to $1,980 would denote strength.
Overall, central bank policy remains the biggest market driver and investors are trying to predict and anticipate their next moves. With one month to go to the next FOMC meeting, the market is almost evenly split over the possibility of no move in the Federal Reserve’s rates, or a 25 basis point increase. Read More
Silver Price News: Silver Eases Back as Investors Focus on WTI and Brent
Silver has fallen below $24 in early trading, but this could be a consolidation following its recent rally. Last week silver gained over 4%, significantly outperforming gold, which posted a fractional decline.
Although the new week began in the red, this decline can be attributed to the rebound of the USD and the correction of gold, which is often followed by the silver price.
From a technical point of view, the major trend for silver still appears solid (and probably better than that of gold in the short term). If silver can hold above $23.5, there could be space for a new rebound to the resistance zones of $24 and $24.2, where the recent tops are placed. Conversely, a fall below $23.25 and particularly a new decline below $22.85 would signify a proper inversion for the precious metal. Read More
Gold price at session highs as U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI drops to 46.3
The gold market is holding near-session highs, supported by growing recession fears as activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector slowed more than expected in March, according to the latest Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
Monday, the ISM said that its manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index dropped deep into contraction territory in March, falling to 46.3%, down slightly from February's reading of 47.7%. The data missed expectations as economists were looking for a roughly unchanged reading of around 47.5%.
The report shows that activity in the manufacturing sector is at its lowest point since June 2020, when the global economy ground to a halt because of the Covid-19 pandemic.
"…the March composite index reading reflects companies continuing to slow outputs to better match demand for the first half of 2023 and prepare for growth in the late summer/early fall period," said Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.
The gold continues to push closer to critical resistance at $2,000 an ounce in initial reaction to the disappointing manufacturing data. June gold futures last traded at $1,983.10 an ounce, up 0.72% on the day. Read More
OPEC oil cuts won't drive inflation high enough to stop gold's run above $2,000
The gold market has room to move higher and retest resistance at $2,000 an ounce as rising oil prices are not expected to drive inflation higher, which will keep the Federal Reserve on track to lower interest rates in the second half of this year, according to some analysts.
Although gold is holding firm near its highest levels in a year, the focus at the start of the week is on oil as prices rallied 8% at the start of the session. Crude oil is getting a significant boost Monday as markets continue to react to Sunday's surprise production cut from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
West Texas Intermediate crude oil is holding on to most of its early gains, last trading at $80.10 an ounce, up roughly 6% on the day.
Over the weekend, the global oil cartel said it would cut oil production by 1.16 million barrels per (bpd) day until the end of the year. Saudi Arabia is leading the cuts after it announced it would implement a "voluntary cut" of just under 5% of its output, or 500,000 barrels a day, "in coordination with some other OPEC and non-OPEC countries."
According to some analysts, the rally in oil prices could complicate the Federal Reserve's and other central banks' efforts to bring inflation down. High oil prices can have a significant impact on inflation. Some analysts have said the production cuts could lead to oil pushing back to $100 a barrel. Read More
Singapore adds another 6.8 tonnes of gold in February
Central bank gold demand has completely transformed the gold market after a record 1,136 tonnes were added to global reserves last year. And while 2023 isn't expected to be another record year, official sector demand will remain healthy.
According to the latest report from the World Gold Council, Singapore's central bank bought gold for the second straight month, increasing its official reserves by 6.8 tonnes in February. The WGC noted that Singapore has seen a significant increase in its gold reserves so far this year.
"Its gold reserves totaled 205 tonnes at the end of the month, over 51 tonnes higher than at the end of 2022," said Krishan Gopaul, senior European, Middle East, and Asian markets analyst at the World Gold Council in a comment on Twitter Friday.
Analysts note that central banks continue to buy gold and diversify away from the U.S. dollar.
In an interview with Kitco News, Robert Minter, director of ETF Investment Strategy at abrdn, said central bank demand is a significant reason why investors need to be overweight gold. He added that gold would be the biggest winner in a multipolar currency world.
"Central banks are not going to stop buying gold anytime soon," he said. "The dollar won't lose its reserve currency status anytime soon, but central banks will continue to diversify away from the U.S. dollar." Read More
Gold and silver see new bullish momentum as hedge funds ditch more bearish bets
Gold and silver continue to benefit from hedge funds ditching their bearish bets; with prices holding solid support levels, and generating upward momentum, new bullish bets are entering the marketplace, according to the latest trade data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The new bullish momentum comes as gold prices continue to test resistance around $2,000 an ounce and silver has broken a long-term downtrend as prices hold above $24 an ounce. Looking ahead, analysts note that bullish speculative positioning in both metals is well below historical norms, meaning there is plenty of upside for prices as more investors jump into the market.
"Silver, in particular, which has been net short for weeks, has a lot of room to run higher," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
In a recent interview with Kitco News, Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, said he expects more investors to jump into the gold market as central banks continue to buy gold, creating a solid floor in the marketplace.
"Central banks aren't fickle investors who will sell their gold if the price drops. They are buying gold for the long term," he said. "This is creating significant strength in the marketplace. Investors are realizing that there is value in the market and are quickly jumping in to buy the dips." Read More
Gold rallies on weak U.S. data, spike in crude oil
Gold prices are solidly higher and silver near steady in midday U.S. trading Monday. Gold is getting a boost from a downbeat U.S. economic report, sharply higher crude oil prices, a lower U.S. dollar index and a dip in U.S. Treasury yields. April gold was last up $21.00 at $1,990.00 and May silver up down $0.009 at $24.17.
The weekend surprise OPEC-plus cut in its collective crude oil production by just over 1 million barrels a day is on the front burner of the marketplace to start the trading week. Oil prices spiked on the news, with Nymex crude oil prices presently up $4.54 a barrel at $80.18. Rallying crude oil prices are bullish for the entire raw commodity sector, including the metals.
Technically, April gold futures prices scored a bullish "outside day" up today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the March high of $2,014.90. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,900.00. First resistance is seen at $2,000.00 and then at $2,014.90. First support is seen at $1,975.00 and then at today's low of $1,950.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.
Image Source: Kitco News
May silver futures prices hit a two-month high today. The silver bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $22.50. First resistance is seen at today's high of $24.335 and then at $24.60. Next support is seen at today's low of $23.725 and then at $23.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5. Read More
Image Source: Kitco News
Gold's ETF and retail interest surges and this is just the beginning - Standard Chartered
As gold attempts to conquer the $2,000 an ounce level, ETF and retail interest is waking up, and this is just the beginning, according to Standard Chartered.
"Interest across tactical, ETF, and retail investors surges in March and there is scope for further growth," said Standard Chartered precious metals analyst Suki Cooper.
Tactical positioning rose at the fastest pace over the past two weeks since June 2019, and ETF flows turned positive for the first time in 10 months.
Investor flows revealed that net positioning "rose by 82.8 thousand lots (k lots), the largest increase over a two-week period since June 2019," Cooper said Monday.
Since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, which triggered the banking crisis, the rise in positioning has been primarily driven by short-covering activity (51k lots) and fresh longs (32k lots).
"Net fund length has surpassed 100k lots for the first time in seven weeks but is well below its peak at 292k lots, suggesting further upside," Cooper added. "Total metal held in trust across the gold ETPs is set to mark the first month of inflows in 10 months."
Holdings are still well below their highs, indicating more interest ahead.
Retail interest in gold also jumped in March. The U.S. Mint reported coin sales of 187.5koz, its best-selling March in at least a decade. Read More
Gold futures close above $2000 for the first time since March 2022
It has been just a little over one year ago that gold futures traded and closed above $2000 per ounce. On March 8, 2022 gold futures opened above $2000 per ounce, traded to a high of $2078 and closed at approximately $2043. Even though gold futures were able to close well above $2000, that price point was unsustainable. On the following day, March 9, 2022, gold opened at approximately $2060 and strong selling pressure drove prices back below $2000 closing at $1988.
Two weeks ago, gold challenged the key psychological level of $2000 per ounce on three occasions, however, gold was unable to sustain gains above $2000 on each occasion.
Image Source: Kitco News
Today, the most active June 2023 futures contract opened at $1990, traded to a high of $2008, and as of 5:40 PM EST is fixed at $2001.70. Gold futures gained $15.50 or 0.78%.
Bullish market sentiment for gold has been evident since November of last year after hitting a triple bottom at approximately $1620 (from September to November). November 3 marked the lowest value of the triple bottom and the end of a multi-month correction. The first leg of the current bull market moved gold from $1620 to approximately $1975 during the first week of February. Read More
Gold: the sacred value within the monetary system. Feat: Dr Stephen Leeb
In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is once again joined by renowned American economist and financial author, Dr Stephen Leeb, to discuss the sacred place of physical gold in the global history of money.
The acclaimed wealth manager shares his research on America’s accelerating financial decline spawned by the end of the Gold Standard, while at the same time, gold remained the best-performing asset class since the system’s eradication.
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Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
