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According to a recent analysis by Heraeus, the demand for gold, silver, and platinum is showing signs of weakness despite recent price increases. The report highlights that gold jewelry consumption in China, following a similar trend in India, has decreased significantly in the first half of the year due to persistently high prices. While there has been a strong increase in demand for gold bars and coins, and a slight rise in industrial demand, this has not been enough to offset the large drop in jewelry sales. The analysts suggest that for jewelry demand to rebound in these key markets, gold prices would need to fall from their current elevated levels.
The report also notes a slowdown in demand for both silver and platinum. For silver, Europe's solar capacity installations are expected to decline for the first time in nearly a decade, impacting the metal's use in solar panels. Additionally, efforts to reduce the amount of silver used per solar cell, a process known as thrifting, are expected to limit any growth in silver demand from this sector. Meanwhile, platinum demand is being hit by a disappointing diesel market, as the use of diesel powertrains in European cars and trucks continues to decline, leading to a forecasted drop in platinum demand for autocatalysts. Source
Banking giant Citi has significantly revised its gold price forecast upwards, projecting the precious metal will reach $3,500 per ounce within the next three months. This new, bullish prediction is a reversal from a forecast made just six weeks prior, when the bank warned that prices could drop below $3,000. The change in outlook is attributed to a deteriorating near-term outlook for U.S. economic growth and an increase in tariff-related inflation concerns. Citi’s updated trading range for gold is now set at $3,300 to $3,600 per ounce.
The higher forecast is also supported by several other factors, including weak U.S. labor data from the second quarter of 2025 and growing concerns about the credibility of the Federal Reserve and U.S. economic statistics. Furthermore, the bank cites elevated geopolitical risks, specifically mentioning the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. According to Citi, gross gold demand has surged by over 33% since mid-2022, driven by strong investment and central bank buying, as well as resilient jewelry demand despite the high prices. Source
According to FX Empire analyst Vladimir Zernov, gold, silver, and platinum are all testing key resistance levels following a weak U.S. jobs report. Gold is trading above $3,370 per ounce, with Zernov indicating that a sustained move above the $3,350 to $3,360 range could push it toward the next resistance at $3,440 to $3,450. Similarly, silver is attempting to settle above the $37.50 per ounce level, and Zernov forecasts a rise to $38.35 if it succeeds, noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests more room for upward momentum.
Platinum also briefly surpassed resistance near $1,350 per ounce amid an overall increase in precious metals demand. Zernov's analysis suggests that if platinum can hold above $1,350, its next target would be the $1,400 to $1,405 range. While platinum prices have pulled back slightly from a session high, they remain up on the day. Both gold and silver are also showing daily gains, with silver in particular outpacing gold's performance. Source
The U.S. service sector showed a slowdown in July, as indicated by the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which fell to 50.1. This reading, a decrease from June's 50.8 and below the expected 51.5, signals a continuation of economic growth but at a slower pace. The report's release caused gold prices to pull back from recent highs, with spot gold experiencing a slight loss on the daily chart.
Analysis of the report's components revealed that key areas such as new orders, business activity, and employment all saw a decline. The Employment Index fell further into contraction territory, a concerning development. Furthermore, inflation pressures increased, with the Prices Index rising to its highest point since October 2022. The report also pointed to tariff tensions as a factor impacting global trade, as both the New Exports and Imports indexes moved into contraction. Despite the overall weakening, the report's author highlighted the sector's resilience due to continued expansion in some indexes. Source
Central banks globally continued to show steady demand for gold in June, with net purchases reaching 22 tonnes for the month, according to the World Gold Council. This marks the third consecutive month of increased buying. For the first half of 2025, central banks added a total of 123 tonnes to their reserves, representing a modest year-over-year decline compared to the same period in 2024. The Central Bank of Uzbekistan was the largest single buyer in June, acquiring 9 tonnes and ending a four-month selling streak. Other notable purchasers included Kazakhstan, the Czech Republic, China, and Turkey, while the Monetary Authority of Singapore was the month's biggest seller, liquidating 6 tonnes.
Looking at the first half of the year, the National Bank of Poland was the largest net buyer, purchasing 67 tonnes of gold. This was followed by Azerbaijan and the National Bank of Kazakhstan. On the selling side, the largest sovereign sellers in the first six months of 2025 were Uzbekistan, Singapore, and the Russian Federation. The report highlights that central banks, particularly those in emerging markets, continue to view gold as a strategic asset for diversifying their reserves and hedging against economic uncertainty. Source
According to a recent gold outlook from WisdomTree, the price of gold is set to continue its upward trajectory, with a base case forecast of $3,850 per ounce by the second quarter of 2026. This prediction is based on consensus macroeconomic factors. The report notes that gold has been trading in a range between $3,180 and $3,400 an ounce since its all-time high in April 2025, but analysts believe the current period is a "loading the spring" phase before a significant price increase. The forecast outlines five key macro risks that are expected to support higher gold prices: trade uncertainty, rising government debt, pressure on central bank independence, geopolitical risks, and ambiguous dollar policy.
The report also presents a more bullish scenario, which they have dubbed the "Mar-a-Lago Accord," where a new US administration explicitly pursues a policy of dollar depreciation. This extreme, but not unprecedented, scenario could see gold prices reach a conservative target of $5,355 per ounce by the end of June 2026. The analysts suggest that such a policy would shock the global economic system, potentially causing wild swings in bond yields and driving a substantial increase in demand for gold as a defensive asset. This forecast also considers a bear case, where gold could fall to $2,700 an ounce if inflation collapses and the dollar appreciates, but this price would still be above its starting point in 2025. Source
Central banks in sub-Saharan Africa are increasingly purchasing and stockpiling gold to diversify their reserves and hedge against global macro and geopolitical instability. This trend is a response to perceived risks in the US dollar and has been led by countries like Ghana, which has seen its gold reserves surge and its currency strengthen as a result. Other nations such as Nigeria, Tanzania, Namibia, Rwanda, Burkina Faso, and Zimbabwe are also implementing similar strategies, including domestic gold purchasing programs, nationalizing mines, and even backing their currency with gold, which indicates a growing confidence in the metal's ability to provide stability.
However, a unit of Fitch Group, BMI, warns that these strategies carry significant risks. A sudden or gradual drop in global gold prices could have a disproportionately negative effect on these countries, especially those that started accumulating gold at high prices. Such a decline would not only erode the value of their reserves and weaken the credibility of their central bank policies, but it would also reduce foreign currency inflows for countries like Ghana, Tanzania, and Uganda that rely heavily on gold exports. Another challenge is the illiquidity of gold, as converting it to other assets like foreign currencies can be difficult, which is why many central banks have traditionally stored gold in major financial hubs to ensure easier convertibility. Source
Gold prices were trading steadily at midday Wednesday, with bullish traders buying the dip and engaging in bargain hunting after some initial profit-taking. Despite a modest improvement in general market risk appetite, which limited the upside for both safe-haven metals, the overall near-term technical outlook for December gold futures remains positive. The price is supported by strong demand, particularly in China, where gold bullion stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses have reached an all-time high due to arbitrage activity.
According to the analysis, the next upside price target for December gold futures is to close above the July high of $3,509.00, while the bears' next objective is to push prices below the solid support level of $3,300.00. The September silver futures also hold a near-term technical advantage, but this is fading. The next goal for silver bulls is to close prices above resistance at $38.51, while bears aim to push prices below the support level of $35.00. Source
Jeffrey Christian, Managing Partner of CPM Group, has dismissed recent theories that the U.S. government could manipulate the gold price to its advantage. He refutes the idea that the Treasury could reset the price by either buying gold at a significantly inflated price, such as $10,000 per ounce, or by selling its existing reserves at a high price to pay down the national debt. Christian explains that a government gold-buying scheme would be unworkable and self-defeating, as the Treasury would have to borrow or print money, which would put pressure on the dollar and interest rates, and the price would plummet as soon as the buying stopped.
He also argues that selling the U.S.'s 261 million ounces of gold at an inflated price, such as $18,000 per ounce, is illogical. According to Christian, no one would buy gold at such a high price when the current market price is much lower. Furthermore, flooding the market with two years' worth of new gold supply would cause the price to plummet, not rise. Lastly, he points out that even if the government could sell its entire gold reserve at this unrealistic price, it would only raise around $4 trillion, which would not significantly address the national debt of approximately $38 trillion, while simultaneously bankrupting the Treasury by selling off its most liquid asset. Source
According to Rhona O'Connell, StoneX Head of Market Analysis, gold and silver maintain strong price support despite preliminary trade deals easing pressure on other markets. O'Connell notes that gold has been consolidating within a tight range since April, with physical markets globally being quiet due to economic uncertainty and the time of year. However, a good monsoon season in India, where farmers favor gold as a primary investment, points to a potential uplift in demand following the harvest and leading into the festival season.
While gold has held its own, silver saw a more significant price drop, which O'Connell attributes to economic concerns and an oversupplied solar market, although it has since recovered. She maintains a positive long-term outlook for silver and a constructive one for gold, noting that both metals have strong support levels. In terms of investment vehicles, ETP data shows a slowdown in gold creations but a more encouraging upward trend for silver, even with some vulnerability to profit-taking. In the futures market, there has been a bearish reversal in gold sentiment, and silver positions have contracted. Source
Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
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