x
Image Source: Unsplash
Silver Price News: Silver Sidelined, but Fundamentals Still Solid
Silver starts the week just below $23.2 per ounce, with a surge late on Friday taking it to the upper end of the recent trading range and allowing it to book a marginal (0.2%) gain for the week.
The most recent (31 October) CFTC Commitment of Traders report published late on Friday revealed that professional speculators trimmed net long silver futures positions over the previous week, while retail speculators added a little to net longs. Overall, net speculative long positions barely changed and speculative positioning remains light relative to levels seen in August/early September.
Silver funds continued to show outflows over last week, with holdings down c. 5% YTD and 22% lower than the record highs seen in 2022. However, industrial demand remains strong, there has been a strong rebound in silver jewellery demand in India and the silver market is once again forecast to be in deficit in 2023. Read More
Gold Price News: Gold Flows Remain Supportive After Profit-Taking Week
Gold heads into Monday having fallen some 7% over the previous week on profit-taking.
However, at over $1,992 per ounce, it is still trading close to a six-month high and while bullish momentum has abated, the broad picture is now one of range-trading.
The most recent (31 October) CFTC Commitment of Traders report published late on Friday revealed that speculative money managers and other (mostly retail) speculators have continued to add to net long futures positions. In aggregate, net longs are now at a 14-week-high.
Recent physical gold fund positioning has also been more positive, with broadly stable weekly flows after a near-continuous downward trend since early June. Incoming data for Q3 also indicates that both bar and coin investments remain healthy, while central banks’ appetite for gold is unabated. Read More
Gold lacks the juice to break through $2,000 next week, but analysts don't recommend shorting it
Gold’s inability to convincingly break above $2,000 an ounce is creating some cautious sentiment in the marketplace, with some analysts saying that prices might need to consolidate in the near term before the precious metal takes a run at its all-time highs.
While analysts are not looking to short gold in the environment, some have said its price action is disappointing as gold has not benefited from a sharp drop in yields and weakness in the U.S. dollar.
Currently, at $1,999, gold has ended a three-week winning streak as it looks to close the week roughly unchanged from last Friday. However, prices are down nearly 1% from its opening gap at the start of the week.
Commodity analysts have said that gold continues to be driven by global geopolitical factors as waning fear in the marketplace takes its toll on the precious metal’s safe-haven allure. Although Israel’s war with Hamas continues to rage, the conflict remains within Gaza, keeping the ongoing chaos in the Middle East in check.
"The geopolitical crisis that has fueled gold’s rally is becoming exhausted,” said Christopher Vecchio. Read More
Gold prices may need clear signal of Fed cuts to break $2000, industrial silver demand set to rise - Heraeus
Gold prices are staying steady even as interest rates remain at 22-year highs, but they will probably need a clear dovish signal from the Fed to rally decisively above $2000 per ounce, according to the latest precious metals report from analysts at Heraeus.
“The gold price had a muted reaction to the FOMC meeting following the recent $200 rally which peaked above $2,000/oz, suggesting there is some fatigue in the gold market after being supported by safe-haven demand on the conflict in the Middle East,” the analysts wrote. “It is possible we will see some of this ‘war premium’ dissipate over the next few weeks, assuming there is no significant escalation in the conflict.”
They noted that this downside risk is being compounded by rising risk appetite. “The S&P 500 has fallen by 10% in the last three months, though it rallied by ~4% last week, coinciding with the stall in gold’s rally. If the zone of resistance formed around $1,980 holds, the gold price could bounce slightly higher,” they said. “To sustainably move above $2,000/oz, however, it may need a clearer signal from the Fed that cuts are coming, and the return of investors to ETFs which have seen outflows of >200 tonnes so far this year.” Read More
Hedge funds losing interest in gold as the market searches for a new catalyst
Gold's three-week short squeeze, driven by safe-haven demand due to renewed geopolitical uncertainty, has run its course according to the latest trade data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Although gold prices have managed to hold initial support above its 200-day moving average, analysts have said that the market needs a new catalyst to push prices to new all-time highs above $2,000 an ounce.
"Gold rallied above $2,000 for the fourth time in six days on Friday and, just as it did on the previous three occasions, failed to capitalize on the breakout before falling back below. That's not a particularly bullish signal and suggests the rally over the last month is running on fumes. We may still see a break above $2,000, but another bullish catalyst may be required," said Craig Erlam, senior European analyst at OANDA.
Some analysts have said that the Federal Reserve's tightening bias, as it looks to keep interest rates in restrictive territory for the foreseeable future, is keeping some investors on the sidelines of the precious metal. They have said that until the Federal Reserve sends a clear message that its next move will be a rate cut, gold could be stuck in neutral within these elevated prices. Read More
Better risk appetite limits buying interest in gold, silver
Gold and silver prices are weaker in midday U.S. trading Monday. The safe-haven metals are seeing some downside price pressure as trader and investor risk appetite has up-ticked modestly recently, as seen by last week's solid rally in the U.S. stock indexes. December gold was last down $8.10 at $1,991.10. December silver was last down $0.06 at $23.225.
U.S. stock indexes are slightly up at midday after posting solid gains last week—the best weekly gains of the year. There have been no major, unexpected developments, markets-wise, on the Israel-Hamas war front for some time—namely other countries getting seriously involved in the conflict. That has lifted marketplace spirits a bit and has allowed traders and investors to focus on and react to more normal market fundamentals. That's also pulling safe-haven bidding away from the gold and silver markets—at least right now.
Technically, December gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,050.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,950.00. First resistance is seen at $2,000.00 and then at $2,010.00. First support is seen at last week's low of $1,978.20 and then at $1,964.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
Image Source: Kitco News
December silver futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $24.05. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $22.00. First resistance is seen at $23.50 and then at the October high of $23.88. Next support is seen at $23.00 and then at last week's low of $22.565. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5. Read More
Image Source: Kitco News
The gold market still has plenty of growth potential as micro accounts attract retail investors - CME's Jin Hennig
The gold market is just starting to tap into its full investment potential as the CME micro futures contracts continue to lower the entry point for smaller retail investors.
In a recent interview with Kitco News, Jin Hennig - managing director and global head of metals at the CME, said that accessibility has created new growth opportunities for the gold market as investors look for alternatives to hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.
“Gold is doing its job with the world in a certain place,” she said. “I think the retail market is still very much untapped when it comes to gold.”
Hennig’s comments come a month after the CME launched options on its micro gold and silver futures contracts. The micro market allows investors to buy and sell gold and silver at a reduced cost. Micro futures represent one-tenth the size of a traditional futures contract.
According to trade data, the CME said that its micro gold futures have seen average annual volume growth of 58% since the contracts were launched a decade ago, while micro silver futures have seen volumes increase 93%. Read More
Live From The Vault - Episode: 147
Safe haven gold demand to disrupt the FED’s risky $1.784 Trillion lifeline
In this week’s episode of Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire wonders who will buy more than $1.7TN in US Treasury bonds and whether the golden elephant in the room is being ignored as safe haven inflows boost gold’s price.
As 2023 draws to a close, the precious metals expert and whistleblower explains how paper prices can no longer be relied on to keep the price of physical gold artificially low: the game has changed, and the gold reevaluation has begun.
.png)
Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
