Today's Gold and Silver News: 10-01-2023

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Gold Price News: Gold’s Great Run Pushes Price to 8-Month High

Gold’s great run continues with the precious metal now trading at its highest level for eight months. A weakening of the US Dollar alongside expectations that the last of the Federal Reserve’s large interest rate hikes is already behind us have created ideal conditions for gold to continue its impressive recovery that started back in early November.

Later this week brings the release of the latest US inflation data, which will be a key reference point for traders and investors to assess the macroeconomic situation of the world’s largest economy. Persistently high inflation has been the reason for the Fed to adopt its hawkish stance but recent signs that inflation has peaked as well as jobs data pointing to an employment market still holding up well have raised hopes that the US central bank will not need to continue its rate hikes for much longer. Read More

Silver Price News: Silver’s Sideways Start to 2023 Represents Buying Opportunity

Silver continues to trade in the mid to high $23 an ounce region with the price going through a period of sideways movement while investors assess how bullish to be on this in-demand metal.

The strong fundamental case for silver is clear for all to see with the metal needed in both the energy transition and the tech revolution. However, silver isn’t driven solely by its supply and demand fundamentals, as shown by last year’s price plunge after the Federal Reserve started to implement a series of interest rate hikes.

It is interesting to note that while gold has made a series of significant gains already this year, silver is largely treading water even though the fundamental case for silver is far stronger. Read More

Retail investors see gold and silver as top performers in 2023 - Kitco survey

With precious metal picking up momentum towards the end of the year, Main Street investors look for gold and silver to be the top performers in the new year, according to Kitco's online survey.

Gold ended the year flat, while silver finished up nearly 3% in 2022. Spot gold kicked off 2022 at around $1,828 an ounce and ended it at just above $1,822 an ounce. Spot silver opened last year at $23.28 an ounce and ended the year at $23.93 an ounce.

"Thanks to an impressive recovery in the final quarter, the gold price ended the year at virtually the same level it began it," said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch.

The biggest macro hurdle for precious metals in 2022 was the historic tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve, which saw the most rapid hiking pace since the early 1980s. Overall, rates climbed by 425 basis points in 2022, rising to a range between 4.25%-4.5%.

"In view of the considerable headwind generated by the pronounced rate hikes implemented by central banks, in particular the Fed, last year's performance of the gold, silver and platinum prices was thus remarkable," Fritsch noted. Read More

Gold - How much higher to go?

I recently suggested the probability was that a range would form between $1820 and $1850 spot gold. Although the price did, in fact, dip into the $ 1820s the next day, bulls would have done well to continue to buy the dip. In the same piece, I also mentioned that an extended target of $1880 to the upside was in play; and yesterday evening, spot gold touched $1881 before turning back down.

The below daily chart shows that gold bulls still have the momentum. On the daily timeframe, with stochastic RSI yet to get into overbought territory (which it may stay in once there), a bullish sign, regardless of a possible pullback to $1850 before the next move to what is likely the $1905/20 spot level. Read More

Image Source: Kitco News

Gold ETFs market summary: 2022 sees outflows of $3 billion

Global gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw outflows of $3 billion last year, which is down 3% on the year and translates to around 110 metric tons worth of bullion, according to the World Gold Council (WGC).

At the end of December 2022, global gold ETF assets under management were at $203 billion, which equated to 3,473 tons, the WGC said in its report published Monday.

Last year was filled with mixed messages for gold-backed ETFs and the gold price.

Even though gold finished the year flat, the precious metal saw fluctuations of about $450. The yellow metal kicked off the year strong by rallying above $2,000 an ounce in the spring. Then it hit the lows near $1,630 an ounce in the fall. Gold ended up finishing the year at just above $1,822 an ounce after starting at around $1,828 an ounce.

For gold-backed ETFs, it was a similar story of strong demand at the beginning of the year based on increased geopolitical concerns. And a trend of outflows after the Federal Reserve began its historic tightening cycle that saw the most rapid hiking pace since the early 1980s, with rates climbing by 425 basis points in 2022. Read More

Gold price climbs closer to $1,900 as China says it bought 30 tonnes in December

The gold market is trading at its highest level in seven months, driven partly by the People's Bank of China's growing appetite for the precious metal.

In an update published Saturday, China's central bank announced that it increased its gold reserves by 30 tonnes in December. This follows November's purchase of 32 tonnes of gold, the first officially recorded purchase since September 2019.

China's gold reserves now total 2,010 tonnes.

Some analysts have said this could continue to support gold prices as they climb closer to $1,900 an ounce. February gold futures last traded at $1,880.70 an ounce, up 0.59% on the day.

"It's bullish when the world's second-largest economy buys that much gold," said Jim Wyckoff, senior technical analyst at Kitco.com. He said the market considers central bank gold buying as "smart money."

However, not all analysts see China's purchases as a game-changer for gold. Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex, said that China's gold holdings still play a minor role in the central bank's total reserves. Read More

Gold will be instrumental in China's plan to create an international oil/renminbi market - BNP Paribas

Gold will be a crucial factor for China as the nation looks to strengthen the yuan's international credibility and continues to push forward its plans to buy oil from Saudi Arabia, according to one market strategist.

In early December, during a visit to Saudi Arabia, Chinese President Xi Jinping called on leaders in the top oil-exporting nation to accept the yuan for oil as the two countries look to strengthen their geopolitical ties.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman heralded the talks as a "historic new phase of relations with China."

In his latest report, market analyst at BNP Paribas, Chi Lo, said that if Saudia Arabia started trading oil in renminbi, it would create further momentum for the Chinese currency, bringing it one step closer to reaching critical mass internationally.

"Gold, however, is a key factor in the further development of a petro-yuan system," he said in the report. "A gold-backed petro-yuan does not require full renminbi convertibility to function, so it allows China to simultaneously retain control of its capital account and boost the internationalisation of the renminbi." Read More

Gold sees good gains as USDX sharply down, crude oil up

Gold prices are up and hit a seven-month high Monday. Silver prices are near steady. A big sell-off in the U.S. dollar index and higher crude oil prices are bullish outside market elements for the precious metals markets to start the trading week. Bullish charts continue to inspire technically oriented traders to the long sides of gold and silver. February gold was last up $10.20 at $1,880.10 and March silver was down $0.017 at $23.96.

Trader and investor risk appetite is keener to start the trading week, following a "Goldilocks" U.S. jobs report last Friday that hints the U.S. economy this year just may come in for a so-called soft landing, instead of going into recession, amid an aggressive monetary-policy-tightening program from the Federal Reserve. Also, spirits are upbeat as China continues to open up its borders and its economy, including opening travel between Hong Kong and mainland China. The above suggests better prospects for the global economy in 2023, which would translate into better demand for metals.

Technically, February gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A two-month-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,900.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,800.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,886.40 and then at $1,900.00. First support is seen at today's low of $1,869.30 and then at $1,850.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

Image Source: Kitco News

March silver futures were nearer the session low at midday. The silver bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $22.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $24.285 and then at the January high of $24.775. Next support is seen at $23.55 and then at the January low of $23.26. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0. Read More

Image Source: Kitco News

Who is behind this gold price rally? TD Securities points to 'mystery buyer'

Gold is trading at seven-month highs, up around 2.5% since the start of the new year. But what/who is behind this recent rally? With the macro outlook unchanged for gold, TD Securities points to a mystery buyer.

On Monday, gold was at one point less than $15 away from the key $1,900 an ounce level. February Comex gold futures were last at $1,877.20, up 0.40% on the day.

Some analysts explain the recent rally as gold pricing in a pivot by the Federal Reserve and investors turning to safety ahead of the coming recession.

However, TD Securities does not see the macro outlook as changed for gold. And the bank believes a mystery buyer is responsible for the gold price run-up.

"The rally in gold prices over the past two months has defied analyst expectations for continued weakness, including TD Securities'," said the bank's senior commodity strategist Daniel Ghali. "Yet, we see little evidence that the rise in gold prices is associated with a changing macro narrative."

The bank also pointed out that speculative interest in gold is still weak. "We still don't see sufficient evidence of substantial buying activity from money managers," Ghali said in a report Monday. "This begs the question: who in the world is this mystery buyer driving prices higher?" Ghali asked.

According to TD's analysis, the central banks, especially China, are driving the gold price at the moment, leading to the price levels getting mismatched. Read More

Gold closes at its highest value this year, although traders bid it lower

Gold futures and spot pricing closed moderately higher today. However, traders and investors bid the precious yellow metal lower with dollar weakness accounting for all of today's gains. As of 4:40 PM EST gold futures basis, the most active February contract is currently up $5.80 or 0.32% and fixed at $1875.60. Concurrently, the dollar is trading 0.68% lower on the day with the dollar index currently fixed at 102.945. Simply comparing the percentage gain in gold (+0.32%) against the percentage decline in the dollar (-0.68%) reveals that there was selling pressure in gold futures today.

The same is true for spot or physical gold. According to the KGX, (Kitco Gold Index) spot gold is currently fixed at $1870.80 after factoring in today's gain of $5.10. However on closer inspection dollar weakness resulted in gains of $12.90 per ounce, and selling pressure took gold lower by $7.80 resulting in today's moderate gain.

A case can be made for the selling pressure in gold on a fundamental and technical basis. Reuters News reported a comment made by Mary Daily the president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank who said, "The Fed should try to bring inflation down "as gently as we can," but it also "absolutely" needs to make sure high inflation does not become embedded."

Technical studies also suggest that gold prices could correct

Image Source: Kitco News

Today gold futures traded to an intraday high of $1886 before settling approximately $10 lower at the time of this writing. Our technical studies indicate that gold futures could find potential resistance at $1881 which is based upon a top that occurred at the end of June 2022. Gold futures did trade above that price point but closed below it suggesting possible resistance at the top created in June. Read More

Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.