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The S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock indexes achieved record highs on Monday, July 21st, driven by robust performances from Alphabet and other prominent technology firms. This upward trend preceded several crucial earnings reports slated for the week, with investor optimism fuelled by the prospect of trade agreements that could alleviate the economic impact of the Trump administration's global tariffs. Alphabet (GOOGL.O) shares surged over 2% in anticipation of its upcoming quarterly report, while Verizon (VZ.N) rallied 5% after raising its annual profit forecast. Analysts project a 6.7% increase in S&P 500 company earnings for the second quarter, largely attributed to Big Tech, with companies generally meeting or exceeding guidance without apparent declines in corporate profits or consumer spending.
As the August 1st tariff deadline approaches, the S&P 500 has climbed approximately 8% year-to-date, reflecting investor belief that tariff-related economic damage will be less severe than initially feared. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick expressed confidence in securing a trade deal with the European Union, even as EU members explore potential counter-measures against threatened tariffs on imports from Mexico, the EU, Canada, Japan, and Brazil. On Monday, the S&P 500 rose 0.56% to 6,332.05 points, the Nasdaq gained 0.73% to 21,048.31 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.49% to 44,560.36 points. Investors are closely monitoring jobless claims data, the July business activity report, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech for insights into potential interest rate cuts, with a greater than 50% chance of a September rate cut now anticipated. Source
Canada's commodity-heavy main stock index closed nearly flat on Monday, with investors closely monitoring upcoming earnings reports and awaiting potential trade agreements between the U.S. and its major trading partners. The S&P/TSX composite index saw a marginal increase of 2.99 points, or 0.01%, to reach 27,317.00, after touching a new record high of 27,448.51. This cautious sentiment emerged as U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick expressed confidence in securing a trade deal with the EU, despite EU diplomats indicating that the bloc is exploring broader counter-measures against the U.S. given dwindling hopes for a breakthrough ahead of President Donald Trump's August 1st tariff deadline. The market's focus has shifted significantly to corporate earnings, with major U.S. industrial and tech firms, including Alphabet and Tesla, set to report this week, alongside Canadian miners like Teck Resources and First Quantum Minerals.
The Bank of Canada's recent quarterly survey revealed that Canadian businesses perceive a reduced likelihood of a worst-case tariffs scenario but maintain caution, keeping hiring and investment in check. On the TSX, materials stocks led the gains with a 2.2% rise, tracking an increase in gold prices, while the energy subindex declined by 0.95% due to a slight dip in oil prices. Among individual stocks, Osisko Development saw a 1.4% increase following the announcement of a $450 million credit agreement. The market continues to prioritize earnings results and developments in international trade negotiations for future direction. Source
Lobo Tiggre, founder of The Independent Speculator, contends that precious metals markets are exhibiting unusual and conflicting signals, and investors who disregard the fundamental conditions of uranium, platinum, and copper are making a critical error. Tiggre highlights "deep supply-demand distortions" in these key commodity markets, asserting that despite the current complexities, the setups for these metals are "extremely bullish." He points out that platinum prices have seen a significant year-to-date surge of 54%, outperforming gold, silver, and even Bitcoin, yet investor participation remains subdued. Tiggre warns that tightening supply in South Africa and uncertainties surrounding Russian shipments are exacerbating existing structural deficits for platinum, with global demand projected to outpace supply by over 800,000 ounces this year, a deficit expected to persist through at least 2027.
Regarding uranium, Tiggre notes that spot prices are holding firm around $74.50/lb, indicating a "new price regime" despite a slower-than-anticipated playout of the uranium thesis, attributing investor fatigue rather than fundamental weakness as the main hurdle. For copper, the impending 50% U.S. tariff on August 1st is expected to cause significant disruption in physical markets, creating arbitrage opportunities and leading to a surge in U.S. warehouse stocks. Tiggre views this as a "real economic dislocation" that will necessitate rerouting and shifting of supplies, emphasizing that existing supply chain issues and geopolitical factors will contribute to unprecedented volatility in these metals. He concludes by stating that while some mining equities are seeing inflows, investors must be selective and focus on companies that can genuinely deliver, stressing that the best opportunities are rooted in strong fundamentals rather than fleeting narratives. Watch the podcast
President Donald Trump is reportedly preparing to sign an executive order that would significantly broaden investment options for American workers within their 401(k) retirement plans, potentially including alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies, gold, and private equity. This move would open up a vast $9 trillion retirement market, shifting portfolios beyond conventional stocks and bonds. The initiative is seen as a continuation of efforts to integrate digital assets into mainstream finance, building on the May decision by the Department of Labor to reverse Biden-era guidance that had discouraged crypto exposure in retirement plans. The proposed executive order would direct regulators to identify and remove existing barriers, paving the way for professionally managed 401(k) accounts to incorporate these non-traditional investments.
This policy push aims to provide retirement savers with greater diversification opportunities, with proponents highlighting the potential for higher returns from volatile cryptocurrencies and gold's role as a traditional safe haven. For instance, historical data suggests that a diversified portfolio including Bitcoin and gold could have significantly outperformed a traditional 60/40 stock-bond mix over the past decade. While supporters champion increased options, critics raise concerns about the inherent risks associated with assets like crypto's price volatility and private equity's illiquidity. If implemented, this change could fundamentally alter how millions of Americans save for retirement, leading to substantial capital flows into alternative asset classes and potentially boosting their demand and prices. Source
Gold prices are maintaining their position above the significant $3,300 per ounce level, demonstrating resilience amidst a strengthening U.S. dollar, which is typically a headwind for the precious metal. This stability is attributed to persistent safe-haven demand stemming from ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainties surrounding global trade negotiations, particularly concerning U.S. tariffs. Despite the dollar's appreciation, often making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for international buyers, the yellow metal continues to attract investors seeking refuge from economic instability. Analysts note that while there's a tug-of-war between gold's safe-haven appeal and the dollar's strength, underlying factors such as inflation concerns and central bank buying are providing a strong floor for prices.
The current market environment sees gold consolidating recent gains after a significant rally, with traders closely watching for clearer signals from central bank policies and further developments in trade disputes. While some profit-taking has been observed, the overall sentiment remains supportive due to unresolved global risks. Technical indicators suggest that the $3,300 mark acts as a crucial psychological and technical support level. Should the dollar continue its upward trajectory or if geopolitical tensions ease significantly, gold could face increased selling pressure. Conversely, any escalation in global uncertainties or signs of economic slowdown could further bolster gold's appeal, potentially pushing it towards new highs. Source
In mid-July 2025, a divergence emerged in the gold market outlook, with Wall Street demonstrating a mixed sentiment between optimism and caution, while Main Street investors showed strong bullishness for gold. This divide is primarily influenced by ongoing political machinations that are creating instability in the broader markets. The article highlights that despite the varied perspectives among financial professionals, general investors are increasingly turning to gold as a safe-haven asset, reflecting concerns over economic and political uncertainties.
This renewed interest in gold from Main Street suggests a broader lack of confidence in traditional market stability, pushing individuals towards tangible assets like gold to protect their wealth. The report emphasizes how political developments can significantly impact investor behaviour and commodity markets. As political manoeuvrings continue to roil financial landscapes, gold is being perceived by a substantial portion of investors as a crucial hedge against potential downturns and market volatility. Source
According to Heraeus precious metals analysts, physical gold investment demand is currently decreasing, evidenced by shrinking bullion sales from major mints like the US and Perth Mints. This suggests that physical investors believe the gold price may have peaked. Despite a strong start to 2025 with significant ETF inflows, these inflows have cooled in recent weeks, even turning negative in May and significantly lower in June, particularly due to a halt in Asian fund inflows. Nevertheless, Heraeus notes that key drivers for further gold gains remain, including consistent central bank buying, like that of the People's Bank of China, and an expected weakening of the U.S. dollar, which could still lead to increased investor holdings if gold breaks above the $3,500/oz mark.
In the silver market, the overall jewelry sector is struggling despite the metal's price rally. While Pandora, a major jewelry brand, forecasts revenue growth for 2025, its performance is uneven globally, with revenue shrinking in key markets like China, Italy, and France. Potential tariffs on Thai goods, including jewelry, also pose a significant risk to silver demand linked to Pandora sales. Global silver jewelry fabrication demand is anticipated to decline this year, largely due to high silver prices crimping demand in price-sensitive markets like India. Conversely, the platinum market is showing signs of recovery in South African supply, although implied lease rates indicate a tight market, possibly due to a geographic misalignment of stocks and demand. Source
Gold and silver prices experienced significant gains near midday on Monday, with gold reaching a four-week high and silver futures poised for an almost 14-year high close. This sharp rally in precious metals is primarily attributed to a notable decline in the U.S. dollar index (USDX) and falling U.S. Treasury yields at the start of the trading week. The August gold futures increased by $56.50 to $3,415.00, while September silver prices rose by $0.851 to $39.315, indicating strong upward momentum influenced by the weakening dollar and lower bond returns.
From a technical perspective, both gold and silver futures exhibit a firm overall near-term technical advantage. August gold futures bulls gained fresh power, with their next objective being to close above the June high of $3,476.30. Similarly, September silver futures are in a four-month-old uptrend, with bulls aiming to close prices above the solid technical resistance at $40.00. The article highlights that the U.S. dollar index bulls are rapidly fading after recent gains, and the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is currently around 4.3%, all contributing to the favorable environment for precious metals. Source
According to Tim Hayes, a strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), the investment strategy of being "long gold and short the U.S. dollar" is expected to persist for the foreseeable future. This outlook is based on a confluence of factors, including the weakening U.S. dollar, declining U.S. bond yields, and ongoing shifts in global equity markets. Hayes's analysis suggests that these macroeconomic conditions create a supportive environment for gold as an asset while simultaneously exerting downward pressure on the dollar, making this trade a resilient one in the current financial landscape.
The article emphasizes that the trend towards global de-dollarization is a significant underlying force driving this persistent investment theme. As central banks and nations increasingly seek to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar, gold emerges as a primary alternative for reserve assets and a hedge against currency devaluation. This strategic shift by various market participants reinforces the long-term viability of favoring gold over the dollar, indicating that the prevailing conditions supporting this trade are unlikely to dissipate quickly. Source
Gold traders are at a critical juncture this week as the price of the yellow metal is being forced into a definitive breakout or breakdown due to a narrowing channel between support and resistance levels. David Scutt, a market analyst at City Index, indicates that while overall signals lean slightly bullish, an upward surge is far from assured. After a strong start to the year, gold's price movement has been relatively flat in recent months, with buyers emerging during dips towards uptrend support, but bears actively selling into rallies, creating a gradually tightening trading range that is expected to resolve soon.
The technical analysis suggests that gold is sitting in an ascending triangle pattern, which typically implies a greater likelihood of an upside break. Momentum indicators like RSI (14) and MACD also show a mild bullish bias. However, the price action and momentum picture are not definitive, urging traders to remain open to both possibilities. Should gold close above the $3360 resistance, the next targets for bulls would be $3377, then $3400, and potentially a retest of the record highs at $3500. Conversely, a break below the confluence of the 50-day moving average and uptrend support could lead to declines towards $3310, $3283, and a more significant support zone at $3250. Source
The British Royal Mint has reported unprecedented levels of online bullion sales for gold, silver, and platinum during the first quarter of the 2025-2026 financial year, from April to June. Gold, in particular, set five new all-time highs in GBP, surpassing £2,500 in April, which significantly boosted engagement from UK investors. While overall online bullion coin sales reached the second-highest levels on record, revenue remained robust, demonstrating a strong market despite a natural decline from the previous quarter's tax year-end rush.
Beyond gold, there was also substantial demand for other precious metals; silver sales increased by 51%, and platinum sales surged by an impressive 188% compared to the same period last year, with silver prices breaking above £27 per ounce in June for the first time since 2011. This elevated interest also led to a record number of customers selling precious metals back to the Royal Mint, yet gold coin purchases still outweighed sales by a 6:1 ratio, indicating sustained demand. The Royal Mint also noted significant growth in its DigiGold products, with digital gold sales up 103%, digital platinum sales soaring by 798%, and digital silver sales rocketing by 1,158% year-on-year. Source
Image Source: Kitco News
Gold markets recently experienced their strongest performance in over a month, driven by a convergence of macroeconomic factors that increased demand for precious metals. The front-month gold futures contract closed 1.5% higher at $3,401.90 per troy ounce, with spot prices exceeding $3,390, reaching levels not seen since mid-June. The primary catalysts for this surge were a significant weakening of the U.S. dollar, evidenced by the ICE Dollar Index falling to 97.86, and a broad retreat in Treasury yields, with the two-year note yield dropping to 3.854% and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield declining to 4.366%. This combination reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it a more attractive investment.
Furthermore, safe-haven demand amplified gold's rise as escalating trade tensions between the United States and its major trading partners fueled market uncertainty. Statements from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick underscored the administration's commitment to its trade policy, with an August 1 tariff deadline looming and potential countermeasures from the European Union. Alongside these geopolitical factors, evolving monetary policy expectations, particularly the approximately 60% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, contributed to the dollar's weakness and declining Treasury yields. This confluence of geopolitical tensions, currency dynamics, and shifting monetary policy expectations has solidified gold's traditional role as a hedge against uncertainty in the current market. Source
While bullish speculation in gold remains crowded, Suki Cooper, a precious metals analyst at Standard Chartered, contends that this is not the primary force behind the recent upward movements in gold prices. Instead, she attributes the price action to broader investment demand, particularly in global gold-backed exchange-traded products (ETPs), and the prevailing performance of the U.S. dollar. This perspective highlights a distinction between short-term speculative positioning and more fundamental, sustained investment flows as the dominant drivers in the gold market.
The analysis emphasizes that despite the visible speculative interest, the underlying drivers of gold's strength are rooted in longer-term investment strategies and macroeconomic factors. This suggests that the market's current momentum is not merely a transient phenomenon driven by speculative exuberance but rather a reflection of deeper shifts in investor behavior and the global financial landscape, particularly concerning the dollar's valuation and the role of gold as a stable asset. Source
In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined by Alasdair Macleod to examine the West’s deepening sovereign debt crisis and warn of a looming fiat endgame, as governments remain paralysed by mismanagement and rising tariffs.
Exposing the trillion-dollar fragilities underpinning the US Treasury and derivatives markets, Macleod explains why interest rates must rise - and why gold is being quietly revalued by central banks as the final bastion of trust.
Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
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