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Gold Price News: Gold Range Bound As Markets Await Further Signals
Gold prices were showing little direction on Monday and Tuesday, with the market treading water ahead of further data announcements this week.
Gold was changing hands at around $2,025 an ounce late Tuesday afternoon, compared with $2,021 an ounce late Monday. Prices did manage a brief spike to $2,038 on Tuesday, but there was little momentum behind the move, leaving prices to fall back later in the day.
Looking ahead this week, Thursday will see a flurry of data announcements. The ECB is set to make an interest rate decision followed by a press conference. There is little chance of any surprises here, as the markets widely expect the bank to maintain current rates at 4.5% in an ongoing effort to keep inflation under control. Nevertheless, there may be further clues about the outlook for EU monetary policy going forward.
Thursday will also see the release of US Durable Goods Orders for December and the GDP growth rate for Q4, both of which may provide more signals on the health of the US economy. Read More
Silver Price News: Silver Rebounds From Two-Month Low
Silver prices gained around 1% on Tuesday as the markets bounced back from a sharp price drop on Monday.
Silver prices rose to around $22.40 an ounce by late Tuesday afternoon, compared with around $22.10 an ounce late Monday. Prices fell as low as $21.94 an ounce intra-day Monday – their lowest since mid-November, and the drop may have attracted some bargain hunting, which helped to power Tuesday’s gains.
However, a surge in the US dollar against other major currencies on Tuesday could put silver back under downward pressure in the short term, as it makes the metal relatively more expensive for buyers in other currencies. Read More
Silver prices may be down, but they are not out; Bank of America sees potential in 2024
The silver market has managed to hold critical support above $22 an ounce; although the market has recovered, lackluster investment demand could keep a lid on prices in the near term, according to recent comments from Bank of America.
In a report published last week, commodity analysts at the second-largest bank in the U.S. noted that silver has struggled to make new highs since the start of the new year as broad-based lackluster investment demand has weighed on the market. March silver futures last traded at $22.46 an ounce, up 0.74% on the day.
“We see a lack of interest among assets under management at physically backed ETFs, CME net non-commercial positions, trading volumes on Shanghai Gold Exchange/Shanghai Futures Exchange and US coin purchases,” the analysts said. Read More
Gold and silver prices both under pressure, but the environment still favors gold – StoneX Bullion
While market sentiment toward both gold and silver remains cautious, the geopolitical and financial environments still favor gold, while economic uncertainty will weigh on silver over the medium term, according to the latest commodities analysis from StoneX Bullion.
The analysts noted that gold prices rose to $2,050 on the back of “a potentially softer path for the Fed’s rate cycle” combined with “increased tension in the Middle East” following U.S.-led strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen.
“This was at the end of the second week of January; thereafter spot prices lost $50 in the space of two trading days as the dollar strengthened, and retail sales were a lot higher than the markets had been expecting at 0.6% (5.6% year-on-year), especially at the core level (excluding food service, gas, building material and the auto sector), which posted a 0.8% gain (also 5.6% Y/Y),” they said, noting surprisingly strong performance from autos, along with clothing and department stores, which they cautioned may have had a ‘Christmas effect.’ Read More
Gold has already priced in rate cuts, Fed-driven rally in 2024 may not materialize – CME Group’s Norland
Because gold prices do such a good job of anticipating future changes to inflation and interest rates, investors banking on a big rally for the yellow metal as the Fed cuts rates in 2024 may be in for a letdown, according to Erik Norland, Executive Director and Chief Economist at CME Group.
“Gold is often touted as an inflation hedge, but is that truly the case? Gold’s rally from 2001 to 2011 coincided with stable core inflation of around 2%. By contrast, from 2021 to 2023 when the U.S. economy experienced the steepest surge in inflation since the late 1970s and early 1980s, gold prices barely budged,” Norland said. “So, if not inflation, what really drives gold? And what should investors expect in 2024 and 2025?”
Norland said that one of the factors that will continue to impact gold prices in 2024 is buying by central banks, “which appears to move prices over the longer term.” Read More
Mega crash is coming in 2024: This is the signal that everything is about to selloff — Harry Dent
The "everything bubble" could finally burst in 2024, warned Harry Dent, founder of HS Dent, who forecasts a meltdown in all assets except one.
Bubbles are dangerous because the economy has been overstimulated, and once assets start to sell off, the move down will happen fast, Dent told Michelle Makori, Lead Anchor and Editor-in-Chief at Kitco News.
"We won't know until the second half of this year whether we'll be able to get through this. And the problem is that things could be happening very fast by then," he said. "Bubbles crash because they go to such extremes by nature - when people are just investing in things because they're going up."
Dent went over his forecasts for 2023 and why his timing was off. For the reason, this mega crash has been delayed. Read More
Gold falls to session lows as S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI rises to 52.3 in January
Gold prices sold off sharply after the private sector in the United States showed significant improvement to start the year.
The S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI came in at 52.3 in January, above December’s final reading of 50.9 and marking the fastest rise in business activity since June 2023.
“An encouraging start to the year is indicated for the US economy by the flash PMI data, with companies reporting a marked acceleration of growth alongside a sharp cooling of inflation pressures,” said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence in the report.
Spot gold fell from $2,029.11 just before the release to a session low of $2,019.20 in the minutes following its publication. Spot gold last traded at $2,021.69, down 0.37% on the day. Read More
Gold prices see little movement against loonie as Bank of Canada leaves rates unchanged; remains focused on fight against inflation
The gold market is not seeing much movement against the Canadian dollar after the Bank of Canada said it would continue to maintain its aggressive monetary policy and reduce its balance sheet.
In a much-anticipated move, Canada’s central bank left its overnight rate at 5.00%; at the same time, it left the Bank rate unchanged at 5.25%.
Although the central bank sees slower growth through the first quarter of 2024, it said that it remains concerned about stubbornly high consumer prices.
“In Canada, the economy has stalled since the middle of 2023 and growth will likely remain close to zero through the first quarter of 2024,” the BoC said in its monetary policy statement. “Consumers have pulled back their spending in response to higher prices and interest rates, and business investment has contracted. With weak growth, supply has caught up with demand and the economy now looks to be operating in modest excess supply. Labour market conditions have eased, with job vacancies returning to near pre-pandemic levels and new jobs being created at a slower rate than population growth. However, wages are still rising around 4% to 5%.” Read More
India raises duties on non-bar gold and silver imports by 50% effective immediately
India has raised the import duties on gold and silver findings, coins, and spent catalysts containing precious metals by 50%, the government announced on Tuesday.
According to the Finance Ministry, the import duty on precious metals findings and coins will now be 15%, up from 10% previously, and the new rate is in effect as of Jan. 22. The Ministry said the measure was taken to eliminate the tax advantage of importing gold and silver in the form of findings rather than in bars, which already had 15% duty charges.
‘Findings’ are small components such as hooks, clasps, clamps, pins, catches, and other fasteners used to assemble jewelry.
The Ministry also raised the import duty on spent catalysts containing precious metals to 14.35% from 10%. Spent organic-based catalysts containing precious metals are incinerated to recover their gold and silver content.
A Finance Ministry official said that the move was made to prevent importers from circumventing the higher duty on gold and silver bars after they noted a surge in imports of gold findings over the last two months. Read More
Dollar and gold futures drop as investors wait for two economic reports
Both the dollar and gold dropped today as investors and traders wait for two important economic reports later this week. Tomorrow’s first reading of U.S. GDP for the final quarter (Q4) of last year, and Friday's PCE report for December.
On Thursday, the Commerce Department will release its initial GDP estimate. Economists that were surveyed by the Dow Jones are forecasting that the total of all goods and services produced by the United States will have grown at a pace of 1.7% for the final quarter of 2023.
On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its latest information on inflation, releasing the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) for December. Expectations for the core PCE is that prices will increase by 0.2% for the month and 3% year-over-year. If forecasts are correct the PCE would move from 3.2% year-over-year in November down to 3% year-over-year in December. A strong indication that inflation continues to abate moving closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Read More
Gold sells off; big futures player likely selling
Gold prices are lower and near session lows after inexplicably coming under selling pressure despite higher silver prices and bullish outside markets on this day. It could be that a big futures trader was either dumping long positions or establishing fresh shorts. February gold was last down $11.30 at $2,014.40. March silver was last up $0.393 at $22.86.
China’s central bank eased its monetary policy Wednesday, announcing it would cut the reserve requirement ratio for its commercial banks by 50 basis points, according to officials. The move is expected to inject 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) of liquidity into Chinese markets. China and Hong Kong stocks rallied on the news. Some analysts said the move by China’s central bank is not enough and more government spending is needed to shore up the world’s second-largest economy. Still, the news has implications for better Chinese demand for raw commodities, including metals.
Technically, February gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded recently. A three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart is in serious jeopardy. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,067.30. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,000.00. First resistance is seen at $2,025.00 and then at this week’s high of $2,039.30. First support is seen at the January low of $2,004.60 and then at $2,000.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
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March silver futures bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A six-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $24.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the October low of $21.17. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $23.09 and then at $23.50. Next support is seen at today’s low of $22.465 and then at $22.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5. Read More
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Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
