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Silver Price News: Silver consolidates above $23
The silver price has consolidated its recovery, remaining above $23 after its recent rally.
The banking sector troubles and a quick change in interest rate expectations have lifted up precious metals – resulting in silver gaining around 16% from the March bottom when it traded just below the $20 threshold.
From a technical perspective, the trend for silver remains solid. A clear surpass of $23.5 could open space for a new recovery to the next resistance zones at $24.2 and $24.5.
Moreover, the fundamentals for the grey metal are still supportive, with analysts forecasting growing demand from different industrial sectors – especially the photovoltaic and electric car batteries – which are expected to further boost silver demand in the next few years on a global scale as part of the green transition. Read More
Gold Price News: Gold remains strong waiting for new market drivers
The bullion price continues its slow dance around the psychological threshold of $2,000. The turmoil that involved the banking sector in both the United States and Europe is not yet fully resolved.
Investors are waiting for the next moves by central banks, which are now forecasted to be more dovish. In this scenario, the Dollar has slightly declined against both the euro and sterling, encouraging a new rebound of gold.
From a technical perspective, gold appears to be in a consolidation phase after the recent gains. Surpassing the recent top of $2,010 could open up space for further rallies, with a quick potential target to $2,070-2,075 – around the historical high reached in early 2022.
Gold is shining, and it is worth noting that in the last few weeks, the stocks of major gold and silver mining companies have posted significant gains with double-digit growth. Newmont Corp is up by 11% in the last four weeks and Barrick Gold by 16%. Read More
Gold weaker as risk appetite up-ticks, USDX rebounds
Gold prices are modestly down and silver is near steady in midday U.S. trading Wednesday. Risk appetite is slowly creeping back into the marketplace this week. That's bearish for the safe-haven metals. A firmer U.S. dollar index on this day is also negative for the metals markets. April gold was last down $7.00 at $1,966.20 and May silver was up $0.01 at $23.43.
The marketplace is slowly moving beyond the U.S. and European banking troubles as risk appetite creeps back into the markets. However, veteran market watchers believe it's too soon for the "all clear" siren regarding the matter.
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are higher at midday.
Technically, April gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. A bullish symmetrical triangle pattern has now developed on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the March high of $2,014.90. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,900.00. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $1,984.00 and then at $2,000.00. First support is seen at this week's low of $1,945.00 and then at last week's low of $1,936.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.
Image Source: Kitco News
May silver futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $24.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $22.00. First resistance is seen at the March high of $23.705 and then at $24.00. Next support is seen at this week's low of $22.96 and then at $22.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0. Read More
Image Source: Kitco News
China settled its first LNG trade in yuan; but gold remains the bigger winner in the global de-dollarization trend
The U.S. dollar's role as the world's reserve currency continues to be tested as nations settle commodity trades with the Chinese renminbi.
Tuesday, the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange announced that it completed its first yuan-settled trade for liquid natural gas between China's National Offshore Oil Corporation and France's TotalEnergies.
According to the exchange, and confirmed by Reuters, 65,000 tonnes of LNG imported from the UAE changed hands. The latest trade deal comes as China tries to establish the renminbi as an international currency.
The trade also came after President Xi Jinping travelled to Saudi Arabia in early December to strengthen economic ties with the Middle East and encourage the region to use the renminbi to settle its oil and gas trades. Read More
Gold remains solidly bullish even with today’s modest price decline
Although gold prices had a modest decline in trading today, the overall fundamental environment that had caused gold pricing to trade above $2000 last week remains solidly entrenched. Today’s modest single-digit decline in gold resulted from market participants once again focusing on risk-on assets with U.S. equities rising. Specifically, a major rise of 1.97% in the NASDAQ composite indicates solid interest in the tech-heavy index. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 1% and the S&P 500 increased by 1.42%.
Positive market sentiment for US equities coupled with minor dollar strength could have easily tipped traders to take profits on long positions in gold. As of 5:25 PM EST gold futures basis the most active April contract is down $7.30 or 0.37% and fixed at $1966.20.
Image Source: Kitco News
However, June gold futures which will be the next most active contract is currently fixed at $1983.10 booking the same dollar decline of $7.30 but are priced almost $20 above the April contract. The large differential of almost $20 between the two contract months clearly illustrates market sentiment is exceedingly bullish long-term for gold. Read More
The Fed 'handcuffed' by hard landing and financial instability, gold price outlook revised up by double digits - MKS PAMP
The failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank is a game-changer for gold and silver as it confirms that the Federal Reserve has broken something vital during its fastest tightening pace in decades, according to MKS PAMP's updated price forecasts.
The firm revised its gold and silver 2023 average price projections by $50 and $24, respectively.
"Gold revised up $50 to $1930/oz (from $1880/oz) – hard landing & financial instability risks escalate handcuffing the Fed. Prices will print new all-time highs this year, but conviction lies in higher floors vs. runaway upside repricing," said MKS PAMP head of metals strategy Nicky Shiels. "Silver revised up to $24/oz (from $22.50) - upside risks contingent on Gold outperformance & investor resubscription."
As the Fed aggressively raised rate over the past year to tame inflation, bringing its key policy rate from around zero to a range of 4.75%-5%, many warned that something in the economy would break. Now, the markets are seeing the evidence. And the consequences of these regional bank failures will trigger a test of new record highs in gold, Shiels pointed out.
"The developments in March officially confirm that the Fed has broken something more important within the broader financial markets," she wrote. "The Fed will have to choose between higher inflation, a harder landing or financial instability; all outcomes will keep safe havens in play, and gold prices will likely retest and pierce all-time highs ($2070/oz) this year. Silver is overdue a strong upside repricing once/if investors resubscribe (capital is just not being convincing deployed)."
With these new risks top of mind, a Fed U-turn is expected as markets price in more bank failures, additional policy bailouts, and weaker economic activity. All of this is mixed with the existing high-inflation environment. Read More
Gold to outperform silver in 2023 as BMO raises price forecasts
Physical demand for gold is expected to be robust and push gold prices above $2,000 an ounce in the next three months as investors look for safe-haven assets to protect themselves from the growing banking crisis, according to commodity analysts at BMO Capital Markets.
Wednesday, the Canadian Bank increased its gold and silver price forecast for 2023. The analysts said that they see gold prices averaging the year around $1,906 an ounce, up 13% from the previous forecast. BMO sees the gold market peaking in the third quarter with an average price of $1,950 an ounce, up 17% from its last estimate.
Looking further out, the bank has upgraded its gold prices by 7%, seeing long-term prices averaging around $1,500 an ounce.
"We have revised up our gold and silver forecasts, on broader uncertainty and financial instability, which has seen interest rate expectations pulled down, and against a backdrop of robust physical demand," the analysts said in the report.
BMO is also bullish on silver but to a lesser extent than gold. The Canadian bank sees silver prices averaging the year at $22 an ounce, up 8% from the initial forecast. The analysts said they expect silver to also peak in the third quarter with an average price of $22.30 an ounce, up 9% from the previous estimate.
Long-term BMO sees average silver prices of $21, up 5% from the previous estimate of $20. Read More
Gold price to average $2,000 in Q4 as Fed cut rates by 75bps and speculators increase exposure, says ING
Gold can average $2,000 an ounce in the fourth quarter of this year as speculators increase their exposure and the Federal Reserve cuts rates, said Dutch bank ING.
After a massive rally over the past three weeks, some pullback in gold is inevitable, said ING's head of commodities strategy Warren Patterson. But there is ample trading room for prices to move higher in the second half of the year.
"Whilst we expect a pullback in prices in the short term, we see gold prices moving higher over 2H23, and expect spot gold to average US$2,000/oz over 4Q23," Patterson said. "The assumptions around this are that we do not see further deterioration in the banking sector and that the Fed starts cutting rates towards the end of this year."
Patterson broke down the speculative positioning in gold to get a glimpse behind the curtain.
"CFTC data shows that speculators have boosted their net long in COMEX gold in recent weeks. The managed money net long has increased by 67,047 lots since late February, to stand at 106,955 lots. Speculators had already increased positioning towards the back end of last year and the start of this year - on the expectation that the Fed is not too far from the peak fed funds rate," he said.
But there is still room for more speculative positions. And the right trigger would be lingering banking sector concerns and a Fed pivot. Read More
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Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
