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TD securities think that gold will still shine this year
Melek said for the first quarter gold performed well and the next three months should be "pretty decent" as well. When speaking about the Fed again he said even if they go through with the dot plot scenarios inflation is too high and whatever the Fed does in the next few months is not going to be enough. The Fed won't be aggressive enough.
Melek said over $2000/oz again is possible and there is comfort in the gold trade being a hedge against inflation. Gold has done very well vs equities markets and it does not look like any adjustments down will be material. If there are some Fed rate hikes it looks like it could affect equities more than the yellow metal. Gold has also outperformed some of the traditional hedges including fixed income. Read More
Gold and silver flatlining
Gold and silver have been moving sideways for weeks. If you put them on a heart monitor, they would be declared dead. We know from experience that a much bigger mover is coming; we don’t know the direction. Based on our algorithm and trading positions, we expect the move to be lower.
Although our expectations are for a selloff, there are no guarantees. There are a few factual things we know that will happen over time. Gold, silver, and platinum will eventually go higher; values will rise. However, the signs suggest lower in the next day, week, or month. Read More
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U.S. dollar 'to implode': buy gold, silver, Bitcoin, and Ethereum, says Kiyosaki
A recession is coming, and the U.S. dollar is going "to implode," according to Robert Kiyosaki, the best-selling author of 'Rich Dad Poor Dad.'
In a recent series of tweets, Kiyosaki painted a grim picture of the U.S. economy, projecting a recession and a greenback collapse.
"Recession and crash coming," he tweeted. "REPO MARKET INVERSION. Last time this happened was 2008. Be careful."
Kiyosaki's comment came after the 2-year and the 10-year Treasury yields inverted for the first time since 2019, with many market participants viewing this as a possible recession signal. Read More
Gold up as crude oil rebounds, inflation worries linger
Gold prices are higher in midday U.S. trading Monday, supported by continued worries about problematic price inflation which will likely get worse before it gets better. A rebound in crude oil prices today also supports the metals markets. June gold futures were last up $13.10 at $1,936.60 and May Comex silver was last down $0.029 at $24.625 an ounce.
Image Source: Kitco News
Technically, April gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid recent sideways and choppy trading. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,967.20. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the March low of $1,888.30. First resistance is seen at $1,950.00 and then at $1,955.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,918.20 and then at $1,900.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0. Read More
U.S. Mint sees strongest gold bullion demand in 23 years, sells 426k ounces in Q1
Rising inflation and safe-haven demand resulted in extraordinary demand for physical gold in March, capping off the best start to the year in more than two decades.
In its latest sales data, the U.S. mint reported that it sold 155,500 ounces of various denominations of its American Eagle Gold bullion coins, up 73% from last month. The U.S. Mint saw its best March performance since 1999.
March ended a solid quarter for bullion demand was. The U.S. mint sold 426,500 ounces of gold between January and March, up 3.5% from the first quarter of 2021. Similar to its monthly says, this was the mint's best quarter in 23 years.
According to analysts, two factors are driving demand for physical precious metals: inflation and Russia's war with Ukraine. Analysts are focusing a lot of attention on Europe's economy as the region faces rising consumer prices and the growing threat that Russia could weaponize its energy commodities as it faces growing sanctions against Western nations.
"People increasingly realize that high inflation is not temporary but has come to stay – and most likely get even worse, especially in Europe," said Thorsten Polleit, chief economist at Degussa, in an email statement to Kitco News. "The war in Ukraine represents a huge risk for the eurozone. For instance, if the inflow of oil and gas and coal from Russia into Europe comes to a shrieking halt, a very severe recession with mass unemployment and the collapse of various industries would be most likely." Read More
Globalization is dead and that will lead to higher gold prices - abrdn's Minter
Russia's war in Ukraine has fundamentally changed the geopolitical landscape. According to one market analyst, globalization is dead and that will create a positive environment for gold.
In a recent telephone interview with Kitco News, Robert Minter, director of ETF Investment Strategy at abrdn, said even if Russia stops its invasion of Ukraine, it is unlikely that globalization trends will go back to peak levels seen just a few years ago. Domestic supply chains will lead to higher prices for finished goods, keeping inflation pressure elevated for the foreseeable future, he said.
Gold can only go higher as inflation threatens to become a permanent fixture in the global economy, Minter said. The comments come as gold prices struggle in a new consolidation channel with support at $1,900 an ounce and resistance around $1,950 an ounce.
Although globalization peaked several years ago, Minter said that the conflict in Eastern Europe has drawn clear lines between allies and opponents and nations are now working as fast as possible to develop their own domestic supply chains and access to raw materials. Read More
There's 'hefty' geopolitical risk premium in gold price and it's $300, says ANZ
Even though demand for gold is expected to remain strong while the war in Ukraine is ongoing, there is "a hefty risk premium" in the price right now, said Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ).
Gold is consolidating after seeing its best quarter in about two years. Still, the precious metal will continue to experience high demand while the geopolitical uncertainty dominates the marketplace, said ANZ senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes.
The reason why is that gold is viewed as an "ultimate currency" — it "holds its value during war unlike currencies, which remain vulnerable to the consequences of war and changes in monetary policies," Hynes said on Monday. Read More
Hedge funds reduce bullish bets in gold futures but buy enough ETFs
Once again, there is a growing divergence in the gold space as a hawkish Federal Reserve drives hedge funds from their bullish speculative positioning; however, analysts note that the shift in speculative bets is offset by strong physical demand and rising interest in gold-backed exchange-traded funds.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for the week ending March 29 showed money managers lowered their speculative gross long positions in Comex gold futures by 6,103 contracts to 146,486. At the same time, short positions rose by 727 contracts to 38,184.
Gold's net length now stands at 108,302 contracts, down nearly 6% from the previous week. Gold's net length has dropped for four consecutive weeks, falling to the lowest point since early February. During the survey period, gold prices remained broadly range-bound between $1,950 and $1,900.
Analysts have said that hedge funds are liquidating their bullish bets as the Federal Reserve looks to aggressively tighten its monetary policy. Markets are pricing in two 50-basis point hikes in the first half of this year.
"The market anticipates rate hikes totaling 125 basis points at the next three Fed meetings and over 200 basis points by the end of the year," said Daniel Briesemann, precious metals analyst at Commerzbank, said a note Monday. Read More
Silver trades higher ahead of the European open
Gold is flat but silver trades 0.45% higher leading into the European open. In the rest of the commodities complex, copper is 1.10% higher and spot WTI is 1.25% in the black.
Mainland China and Hong Kong were closed today but the ASX (0.19%) and Nikkei 225 (0.19%) both moved higher. Futures in Europe are also indicating a positive cash open.
In FX markets, AUD/USD (1.00%) was the big move after the slightly more hawkish RBA meeting. NZD/USD (0.67%) also performed well. In the crypto space, BTC/USD is 0.11% higher.
News from overnight: Read More
Will there be a new ‘gold standard’ for the ruble?
Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine remain extremely difficult and the conflict sadly continues. We have not seen any significant breakthrough in the negotiations in the last 48 hours and investors are looking for more clarity.
On the currency market, the Euro is trading just above 1.10 against the U.S. Dollar and investors are keeping a close eye on the Russian Ruble, after its remarkable move last week.
Following the sharp collapse seen in February and in the first few weeks of March, when the USD/RUB trading pair jumped to 130. The Russian currency changed direction, gaining 12.5% against the USD last week and returning to levels seen before the beginning of the war.
This was due to various factors, including Putin’s decision to demand rubles as a form of payment for Russia’s gas. Read More
Silver below $25 on Ukraine-Russia peace hopes
Most commodities had a negative performance last week. WTI and Brent, the two main benchmarks for the oil price, were particularly under pressure and lost around 14-15%. Wheat also posted a double-digit decline.
The scenario in Ukraine remains extremely complicated. Investors seem to be a bit more optimistic about the possibility that some sort of agreement might be found in the next few weeks, which has pulled down the price of most commodities.
Also, expectations are growing that the Federal Reserve will become more hawkish in the next few months, in an effort to deal with rampant inflation.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, over 70% of investors forecast a 50 basis points rise in interest rates in May, and see rates reaching 2.50% by the end of 2022. Although the new week started with a modest rebound for silver, the spot price is still just below the $25/oz mark as uncertainty is still dominant. Read More
Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
