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Gold reverses, short squeeze, or turnaround
Over the next couple of days, the markets will decide on whether the trend has changed or if this is a great selling opportunity. The pattern is a little unclear with the recent action; we will maintain our short position and observe the market.
Traders must understand the markets and when the time is right for aggression or being passive. Now is the time to sit back and manage current positions without adding or reversing. Let this cycle play through and the answers will become clear.
In all markets, price action determines what will happen in the next day, week, or month. Keep the two strategies separate. The worst trade anyone can make is turning a trade into an investment hoping for a way out. Traders must learn to take their losses and move on to the next trade. Read More
U.S. weekly jobless claims rises back above 200K
The gold price is pushing closer to $1,800 an ounce as the U.S. labor market lost some near-term momentum with more workers than expected applying for first-time unemployment benefits.
Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department said that weekly jobless claims increased by 18,000 to 206,000, up from the previous week's revised estimate of 184,000 claims.
The latest labor market data significantly missed expectations. According to consensus forecasts, economists were expecting to see jobless claims around 196,000. Read More
Inflation could rise 15% in 2022 if wage pressures spiral out of control; use gold to hedge - Saxo Bank
Inflation remains one of the biggest threats to the U.S. economy. Analysts at Saxo Bank see the potential for consumer prices to rise 15% in 2022, overshadowing the last major inflationary environment seen in the 1970s.
The Danish bank's inflation forecast is part of its annual Outrageous Predictions, and while the forecast appears extreme, it is not as far-fetched as some would expect.
Last week the U.S. Consumer Price Index saw an annual rise of 6.8% in November; however, many economists note that inflation is a lot higher than the government's official reports.
John Williams' Shadow Government Statistics shows that inflation, based on a methodology that was employed prior to 1980, is already at 15%. Calculating inflation based on 1990 methodology, inflation is above 10%. Read More
How high can gold & silver go in 2022? Rates to rise, here's the impact on markets - Gary Wagner
Gary Wagner, editor of TheGoldForecast.com discusses with David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, the impact that monetary policy next year will have on financial markets.
“I think that the Fed got it wrong. They underestimated the pace at which inflationary pressures would grow and how persistent they would be. Now that they’re acknowledging that we have persistent inflation, and taking out the word ‘transitory’, they are in my mind chasing inflation. In other words, they’re reacting to the inflationary level rather than being proactive about it. That to me, is not what the Federal Reserve is supposed to do,” Wagner said. Read More
Gold price near session highs following disappointing flash PMI data
The gold market is seeing some new buying momentum as U.S. economic data continues to disappoint as preliminary estimates show slowing activity in both the manufacturing and service sectors.
Thursday, IHS Markit said its flash U.S. manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for December dropped to a reading of 57.8, down from November’s reading at 58.3. Economists were expecting to see activity increase with the index rising to 58.6.
The report said that activity in the manufacturing sector is at a one-year low. Read More
European Central Bank easing QE measures but remains flexible
The European Central Bank may be taking its foot off the gas pedal, but it's not ready to completely stop the liquidity train as it adjusts its quantitative easing measures in the face of rising inflation.
While the ECB will be ending its pandemic emergency purchase programme by March 2022, the central bank said it will maintain its asset purchase programme.
In a press conference following the central bank's monetary policy decision, ECB president Christine Lagarde said that the adjustment to the QE program was to avoid a "brutal transition," for financial markets as the European Economy continues to recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
"We judge that the progress on economic recovery and towards our medium-term inflation target permits a step-by-step reduction in the pace of our asset purchases over the coming quarters. But monetary accommodation is still needed for inflation to stabilize at our 2% inflation target over the medium term. In view of the current uncertainty, we need to maintain flexibility and optionality in the conduct of monetary policy," Lagarde said in her opening remarks. Read More
Post-Fed is the time for gold price to take the reigns, says Standard Chartered
After the uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's tightening plan has been cleared up, it is gold's time to shine, according to Standard Chartered.
Gold managed to quickly recover its losses post-Fed announcement and make its way towards that elusive $1,800 an ounce level. This came in response to the central bank stating that it was doubling its asset tapering pace to $30 billion a month and was pricing in three rate hikes for 2022.
"Gold positioning was relatively cautious ahead of the meeting and price action suggested that a number of headwinds were already priced in," said Standard Chartered precious metals analyst Suki Cooper. "Gold had likely priced in the likelihood of accelerated tapering given its sensitivity to high inflation prints." Read More
Gold, silver sharply up as USDX sinks, oil rallies, bond yields stable
Gold and silver prices are posting strong gains in midday U.S. trading Thursday. The metals market traders on this day reckoned rising inflation prospects are bullish, as is shown by market history. A lower U.S. dollar index today, higher crude oil prices, and stable U.S. Treasury yields are also friendly for the precious metals bulls. The safe-haven metals rallied today despite upbeat trader and investor risk appetite late this week. Trading in the metals markets this week is a prime example of the old trading adage, "markets can remain illogical longer than traders can remain solvent." February gold was last up $34.00 at $1,798.50 and March Comex silver was last up $0.955 at $22.50 an ounce. Read More
Gold flirts with $1800 as market participants digest yesterday's FOMC meeting
As they say in real estate, it’s all about location. Yesterday judging by how gold and U.S. equities moved, it was not so much about the statement and dot plot, but it was all about Powell’s press conference. Gold had been trading lower before the release of the statement and dot plot trading to a low of $1753. Chart number one is a five-minute line chart detailing when Chairman Powell first took the podium. Gold had come off the prior lows but was still trading lower at $1762.
By the time Chairman Powell had concluded his press conference, gold was trading just shy of $1780. Since then, it has not looked back today, flirting with $1800 per ounce. The last time gold had a closing price this high was on November 5, two days after the November FOMC meeting. Powell’s press conference had a very similar initial effect during the November FOMC meeting compared to this month’s meeting. On the day following the last two FOMC meetings, gold reached a high of $1800 per ounce. Read More
Gold and silver trade higher leading into the European open
Gold (0.47%) and silver (0.23%) have moved higher overnight leading into the European open. The yellow metal is building on the 1.27% increase from Thursday's session and now trades at $1807/oz. In the rest of the commodities complex, copper is trading 0.39% higher but spot WTI has dropped -0.27%.
Overnight stocks in the Asia Pac area followed the negative cue from the States. The Nikkei 225 (-1.79%) and Shanghai Composite (-1.16%) fell but the ASX bucked the trend to trade 0.11% higher. Futures in Europe are pointing towards a negative open.
In FX markets, the biggest mover was NZD/USD which fell 0.40% overnight. Most of the commodities' currencies were weaker as USD/CAD rose 0.20% and AUD/USD fell around -0.31%. In the crypto space, BTC/USD fell 1.50% to trade at $46,906. Read More
Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Friday 17th December
Kinesis Money Gold Analysis: A large majority of investors and analysts would have bet that after such a hawkish FOMC’s meeting gold was buried. And they would have been terribly wrong. After having declined on Wednesday to $1,760, bullion strongly rebounded to the key resistance level of $1,800. This threshold has been surpassed in the last few hours, with a new positive impulse.
Technically, gold is regaining momentum, helped by the stabilization of the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields (below 1.50%), while the greenback lost grain, with the dollar index which has moderately slowed down to 96 points.
Closing the week above $1,800 would represent a signal of strength for bullion, which – surprisingly – is on a track for the positive week, after one of the most hawkish FOMC meetings of the last few years. Read More
Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
