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Unpredictable silver market extra challenging for traders, investors
Veteran traders of commodity futures markets know well the old trading adage: "Markets can and will do anything and everything imaginable to frustrate the largest number of traders." Silver is especially good at such. Reason: It has the luxury of acting like a safe-haven asset on some occasions, and acting like a risk-off industrial metal on other occasions, with nobody able to predict which personality the metal will exhibit at any given time. That's why it' extra important for silver traders and investors to examine charts for clues on future price direction.
The weekly continuation chart for nearby Comex silver futures favors the bearish camp. Prices have been trending down for 11 months, from the February 2021 high of $30.35 an ounce. It will take a price move in nearby silver futures back above major psychological resistance at $25.00 to get the bulls charged up, from a longer-term technical basis. Read More
Silver Price Technical Analysis: Resistance levels in focus
Silver has had a good start to the session and is trading 1.68% higher at $22.66/oz. The 4-hour chart below shows that the price has now made a higher low wave and the previous wave high is currently been tested and looks vulnerable. This could be a base formation but there are many significant resistance zones the bulls would need to break before we can confirm a trend change.
Looking closer at those resistance levels it's fair to say a strong one has just been broken. The volume point of control (VPOC) has now been taken out and the price has closed and confirmed above the area. The next resistance zone is the blue area at $23/oz and this area was used as a massive support zone in the middle of the chart on 3rd November. Beyond that, $23.52/oz is next up. Read More
Gold weaker amid rising U.S. bond yields, better risk appetite
Gold prices are moderately lower in midday U.S. trading Tuesday, on a continued corrective pullback from last week's good gains. Rising U.S. Treasury yields and the better risk appetite in the marketplace Tuesday are daily negatives for the safe-haven metal. February gold was last down $7.30 at $1,787.20 and March Comex silver was last up $0.194 at $22.48 an ounce.
Global stock markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are solidly higher at midday. The global stock indexes are posting corrective bounces after Monday's strong losses that were due mostly to worries about the pandemic starting to surge again. A look at the daily bar charts for the Nasdaq and S&P futures shows higher daily price volatility at higher price levels. That's one warning signal of a topping process in a market and favors the bearish camp. Look for more daily increased price volatility in the near term, which could be amplified even more by thin holiday trading volumes in the coming days. Read More
Owning gold, mining equities are still compelling despite a hawkish Fed - VanEck
As the Federal Reserve prepares to tighten its monetary policy in 2022 and the gold market continues to struggle below $1,800, one financial firm said that precious metals and the mining sector will still be next year's attractive investments.
In their latest monthly gold report, VanEck's Iamru Casanova and Joe Foster, Portfolio Manager and Strategist, said that gold is still a vital inflation hedge even as the Federal Reserve looks to take a more rigid stance on inflation next year.
The report was published as the Federal Reserve announced that it would double the pace of reducing its monthly bond purchases. At the same time, the U.S. central bank also signaled that it could raise interest rates three times next year.
However, the two gold analysts noted that the hawkish expectations come with some significant risks.
"We believe the Fed's tools to fight inflation could become a substantial risk to the economy and to the stability of the financial system. In a worst-case scenario, exposure to gold should help weather the storm. Even in the best case, exposure to gold, especially through the gold mining equities, could prove beneficial," the analysts said. Read More
Santa Claus rally eludes gold market; U.S. dollar dominating season trends - market analyst
Traditionally, the last month of the year and the start of the new year has seen a strong seasonal period for gold. However, one market analyst has pointed out that the precious metal appears to be running counter-seasonal this year.
In a recent commentary, Darin Newsom, president of Darin Newsom Analysis, looked at seasonal trends in gold. He noted that the precious metal started the year following season trends of the last five years. However, Newsom added that the pattern broke down in May.
"Most notably, the U.S. dollar index moved into an intermediate-term uptrend on its weekly chart," he said. "Those years when we see a number of contra-seasonal moves, it usually comes down to a change from "normal" on the fundamental side." Read More
Gold price to drop 16% to $1,500 in 2022, 2023 doesn't look any better - ABN AMRO
Gold's price action through 2021 has been a disappointment as the precious metal has seen lackluster investor demand; however, according to AMB AMRO, 2022 could be a disaster as they see gold prices falling 16%.
In her 2022 gold price forecast, Georgette Boele, senior FX & precious metals strategist for the Dutch bank, said that she sees gold prices falling to $1,500 an ounce by the end of next year and dropping to $1,300 an ounce by the end of 2023.
The bearish outlook comes as the gold price has been unable to hold gains above $1,800 an ounce. February gold futures last traded at $1,795.10 an ounce, down nearly 6% on the year. Read More
Gold trades lower and silver gains as bullish risk-on sentiment prevail
Today, we had a mixed bag in the precious metals markets, resulting in gold declining for the second consecutive day, and silver recovering and trading higher after yesterday’s decline. Yesterday, market participants in U.S. equities were solidly risk-off, taking all three major indices lower. Today U.S. equities reversed, scoring solid gains across-the-board.
The Dow Jones industrial average gained 560.64 points, or 1.60%, and closed today at 35,492. The NASDAQ composite had the largest percentage gain trading up 2.40%, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 1.78%.
Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures in Chicago, said, “You got a risk-on trade with U.S. equities bouncing back after the losses yesterday.” Read More
Silver will go 'crazy' in 2022, gold to break $2k again, speculation will end - E.B. Tucker
2022 is the year speculative money recedes from the markets, said E.B. Tucker, director of Metalla Royalty.
“Everybody is a speculator, and so next year, I expect this speculation runs out of gas. There’s no more stimulus check coming. There’s more liquidity coming into the average person’s pocket. They got a raise this year, but everything they’re buying is going up in price. Sales are slowing down. The refinance boom is slowing down,” Tucker told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News. “Next year, you’re going to see a rotation out of [stocks] and you’re going to see a move into something real.”
Tucker predicts that next year, silver will “go crazy” as capital rotates into precious metals. Read More
Only gold and Bitcoin will protect against what's to come - Alex Mashinsky's 2022 survival guide
2022 will be a year of heightened volatility from growing fears of the latest Omicron variant, as well as rising inflation, and the chance of monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve, said Alex Mashinsky, CEO of Celsius Network.
The key is to look at which economic scenario is most likely to play out and act accordingly.
“If there’s a lot of volatility because inflation is out of control [and go into] the double digits then gold and Bitcoin are going to become safe assets. But, if we have single-digit inflation and the Fed is fighting it, then all assets are actually going to lose value because everybody is going to be hurting,” he said. “And, if the opposite…if the Fed decides that inflation is not an issue and they can accommodate longer, then all asset prices are going to go up. So, we have several scenarios here and we have to watch very carefully what happens with each print each month and make decisions based on that.” Read More
Gold and silver trade marginally lower ahead of the EU open
Gold and silver both trade just under flat leading into the European open. In the rest of the commodities complex, copper is 0.10% higher and spot WTI is also flat.
Risk sentiment was mixed overnight as the Nikkei 225 (0.16%) and ASX (0.13%) pushed higher but the Shanghai Composite fell -0.07%. Futures in Europe are also pointing towards a mixed open with the FTSE looking positive while the DAX futures contract is -0.27% in the red.
In FX markets, AUD and NZD suffered against the greenback and the dollar index traded 0.10% higher. In the crypto space, BTC/USD is attacking $50K again as it trades 0.64% higher. Read More
Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
