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10 reasons to be bullish on the gold complex in 2022
With bearish gold headlines making the rounds as the new year came to a close last week, you would think bullion was down double-digits in 2021. But after gaining a stellar 18% in 2019, then another 24% in 2020, the gold price consolidated those huge gains as much as 20% by Q2/2021 and ended last year down just 3.5%.
The gold price has entered the new year by continuing to whipsaw investors on both sides of the trade. The first week of 2022 began with volatile trading on either side of the key $1800 level until the Federal Reserve minutes from December, released on Wednesday, pulled the rug out from under the bulls.
Despite the continued under-performance for gold as we begin the new year, the fundamental backdrop in 2022 for precious metals and related mining share prices continues to strengthen. Below are 10 reasons why I expect the gold price to eventually rise above $2,000 per ounce in 2022, along with the mining sector creating a significant bottom in Q1/2022: Read More
Inflation rises again in the Eurozone to hit a multi-decade high
Inflation data for the month of December hit its highest rate since 1985 after reaching 5%. In the report, the dominant energy prices eased slightly but food and goods prices still had an effect, both of which have been affected by higher transport costs and shortages.
ING Bank noted "is this peak inflation? This depends to a significant degree on gas price developments, which have been incredibly volatile in recent weeks and are a dominant driver of the recent inflation surge. Still, at current futures prices for natural gas and oil, energy inflation is likely to have peaked and is set to trend down from here."
The bank added "Non-energy industrial goods inflation already jumped from 2 to 2.9% in the past two months, showing clear signs of costs being priced through to the consumer at a faster pace. We expect this to continue at the start of the new year.". Read More
Gold and silver struggles continue
Equities and metals have been under pressure all week. The FED continues to be unable to recognize the problems they created. The question here is, what has the market priced into this job's number?
Based on recent price action, which has reversed our Gold and Silver positions to short, pushed the 10-year notes to 1.73%, and looks to be reversing the trend in equities, we can only assume a strong number is expected.
The first week of the new year has brought tumultuous results, there have been some heavy sell-offs in all markets. This is the problem when the central banking system thinks they are smarter than the markets. Their history proves they are clueless.
We are short Gold, Silver and would be short Platinum. Read More
Gold sees choppy price action after mixed U.S. jobs report
Gold futures prices are near steady and seeing volatile trading in early U.S. action Friday after a U.S. jobs report that showed mixed components. February gold futures were last up $1.40 at $1,789.90 and March Comex silver was last down $0.05 at $22.15 an ounce.
Friday morning's U.S. employment situation report for December saw its key non-farm payrolls component show a rise of 199,000, after a rise of 210,000 in the November report. The marketplace expected a rise of around 425,000 in the December number. However, the overall unemployment rate was 3.9% versus an expected rate of 4.1% and compares to 4.2% reported in the November report.
Technically, the February gold futures bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close in February futures above solid resistance at this week's high of $1,833.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the December low of $1,753.00. First resistance is seen at $1,800.00 and then at Thursday's high of $1,811.60. First support is seen at $1,775.00 and then at $1,770.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0 Read More
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Gold price fails to move above $1,800 as U.S. job numbers disappoint in December
Gold remained below the $1,800 an ounce level even though the U.S. employment data from December surprised on the downside.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose only by 199,000 in December, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The monthly figure was well short of consensus estimates of 400,000. The November data was revised up to 249,000 positions added.
The U.S. unemployment rate was the strong part of the report, dropping to 3.9%, beating market consensus calls for a decline to 4.1% in December.
The number of unemployed also dropped to 6.3 million. “Over the year, these measures are down by 2.8 percentage points and 4.5 million, respectively. In February 2020, prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, and unemployed persons numbered 5.7 million,” the report noted. Read More
The Metals, Money, and Markets Weekly by Mickey Fulp - January 7, 2022
Retail investors look to gold and silver for best results in 2022, Wall Street points to silver and platinum
After a disappointing year for gold and silver, Main Street is looking for the bearish tide to turn in 2022, picking the two metals as the top performers in the new year, according to Kitco's online survey.
Gold ended the year down 3.6%, posting its biggest annual decline since 2015. Silver wrapped up 2021 with a drop of 11.5%, which was the metal's sharpest decline since 2014.
Both metals failed to gain traction throughout last year despite the hot inflation narrative, as strong economic recovery and a more aggressive Federal Reserve outlook weighed on prices. Read More
Is hawkish sentiment about to peak? Here's what is next for gold price after this week's Fed-related selloff
After shedding more than $35 this week in response to a more aggressive Federal Reserve meeting minutes, the hawkish sentiment might be at its peak, according to analysts. And that is a positive signal that gold bulls are keeping a close eye on.
The big news that shook the gold market this week was the Fed's December meeting minutes, which indicated that a "tight" U.S. labor market and problematic inflation could require quicker rate hikes and a balance sheet reduction.
"Participants generally noted that, given their individual outlooks for the economy, the labor market, and inflation, it may become warranted to increase the federal funds rate sooner or at a faster pace than participants had earlier anticipated," the minutes stated. "Some participants also noted that it could be appropriate to begin to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet relatively soon after beginning to raise the federal funds rate." Read More
Jobs reports come in well below forecasts and support gold prices
Job growth was moderate at best last December, according to the U.S. Labor Department's nonfarm payroll jobs report which was released today. Economists polled by various news sources predicted that there would be an additional 400,000 jobs added to payrolls last month. The actual number was roughly half of the projected forecast revealing that only 199,000 additional jobs were added.
MarketWatch reported that "The U.S. created a lackluster 199,000 new jobs in December, signaling that persistent labor shortages and another major coronavirus outbreak are holding back the economy. The increase in employment was well below Wall Street's expectations. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast 422,000 new jobs. The U.S. jobless rate, meanwhile, slipped to 3.9% from 4.2% and drifted to a new pandemic low. The rate stood at 3.5% right before the pandemic." Read More
U.S. stock markets to crash by 90% this year, followed by the best buying opportunity in your lifetime - Harry Dent
Dent is an economist and the author of "Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage" and his latest book "What to Do When the Bubble Pops: Personal and Business Strategies For The Coming Economic Winter." He bases his economic forecasts on demographic changes.
Speaking to Michelle Makori, editor-in-chief of Kitco News, Dent said that risk assets will sell-off in waves, with the first wave seeing U.S. equity markets drop as much as 40% and the entire bear market phase totaling up to a loss of 90% for the S&P 500, not unlike what happened to tech stocks during the Dot Com Bubble bust of 1999.
"This is going to be the biggest crash and the biggest downturn of your lifetime, and most of it is going to happen probably in 2022," Dent said. "The whole crash is going to be 80% to 90%." Read More
Gold and silver trade marginally lower heading into the European open
Gold and silver start the week marginally lower. The yellow metal is trading at $1793/oz while silver is around £22.27/oz. Elsewhere in the commodities complex, copper is flat and spot WTI has risen 0.35%.
Indices in the Asia Pac area were mixed overnight. Japanese markets were closed due to a public holiday and the ASX closed just under flat but the Shanghai Composite moved 0.39% higher. Index futures in Europe are pointing towards a positive cash open.
In the FX markets, EUR/USD was the biggest mover as the pair fell -0.24% closely followed by AUD/USD (0.23%). In the crypto space, BTC/USD rose 0.44% to trade above $42K again. Read More
Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
