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A new spot gold exchange is set to open in India
The National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) has teamed up with the India Bullion and Jewelers Association Ltd (IBJA) to launch Domestic Bullion Spot Exchange to ensure complete transparency in the bullion transactions executed on its platform.
The prospective business framework will cater to business-to-business (B2B) parts of the gold industry and integrate the value chain participants in the bullion ecosystem.
The makeup of the project shall have participation from NSE, IBJA, and industry participants (refiners, bullion dealers, jewelers, banks, overseas suppliers, funds, FPIs, other MIIs) as per regulatory norms. IBJA and NSE are already in advanced discussions with industry participants in closing the shareholder structure. Read More
Gold drops back at the start of the week
Gold is having a retracement at the start of the week. the price is around 1% lower in early European trading and has subsequently pushed through the $2K/oz psychological support. The 4-hour chart below shows the price has moved through the support which was the previous wave high from 24th February (marked in red). The next support is now at the pink upward sloping trendline which the price has bounced off on three occasions. Elsewhere on the downside, the orange support line at $1919/oz would be next up.
The bulls are still firmly in charge of this market as the price waves are still making higher highs and higher lows. If the bulls are to come back into the market this week, the $2000/oz level is the one to watch. If there is to be a price break at that level then the all-time high could be the next target. Read More
Brace for more volatility
Conflicting news headlines regarding the path to peace in Eastern Europe continue to drive volatility in early trading this morning. After the recent sell-off, it would not be surprising to see gold trade back up to the $1985-$1995 level from the current $1965 price. Should $1965 become resistance, however, hopes of a short-term bounce maybe quickly tempered. Similarly, silver could confirm resistance around $25.30-$25.45 in the very short term. Platinum bears have pushed the metal back down into the $1035-$1065 range, where bulls will need to regroup for a chance at pushing higher. Read More
Image Source: Kitco News
What's this year's 'potential end game'? Gold price at $2,500, oil price at $50 - Bloomberg Intelligence
Could the year-end scenario be gold at $2,500 and crude oil at $50? Gold is one of the assets that could benefit the most this year, while oil is still facing prospects of crippling demand in the future, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
"Markets may be facing an extended risk-off reversion period, which we see as essential to reduce inflation pressures. Gold stands to be a primary beneficiary, potentially along with U.S. Treasury long bonds and Bitcoin," said Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone. "Gold is poised to cross the $2,000 rubicon … Potential end game for 2022 - $50 crude, $2,500 gold, recession."
Gold has been trading in a narrowing wedge pattern, and these have the habit of breaking out to the upside, McGlone pointed out.
"The 2021 range of about $1,700-$1,950 an ounce roughly matches the 50-week Bollinger bands, which are the narrowest since 2018. We see parallels to the pattern that formed a foundation of around $1,200 some four years ago and subsequent breakout above $1,400 in 2019 when the Fed started easing again. About $1,800 is a strengthening base for a potential breach of $2,000 resistance," he explained. Read More
Gold, silver sell-off as crude briefly dips below $100
Gold and silver prices are solidly lower in midday U.S. trading Monday, as trader/investor risk appetite is just a bit better to start the trading week. Also, crude oil prices have dropped sharply from last week’s 14-year highs, including Nymex crude at one point today dipping below $100.00 a barrel. That’s putting downside pressure on most of the raw commodity sector. April gold futures were last down $24.20 at $1,961.10 and May Comex silver was last down $0.785 at $25.38 an ounce.
Image Source: Kitco News
Technically, gold bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. However, recent price action suggests a market top is in place. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the record high of $2,078.80. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,900.00. First resistance is seen at $1,975.00 and then at today’s high of $1,994.80. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,952.00 and then at $1,935.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0. Read More
Gold price and risk: metal off daily lows but surging yields, risk sentiment, and oil price crash weigh
As investors await the Federal Reserve interest rate announcement on Wednesday, gold price remained volatile. Risk sentiment improved and another oil price crash weighed on the precious metal.
Gold hit a daily low of below $1,955 an ounce early Monday but then managed to pare some of its losses, with April Comex gold futures last trading at $1,963.40, down 1% on the day.
It was all about risk sentiment and developments in Ukraine as talks with Russia resumed, said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch.
"The gold price has fallen now that there are hopes that the war in Ukraine might end … due to positive signs from the talks conducted at the weekend by Russian and Ukrainian representatives," Fritsch said. "This is increasing risk appetite among market participants and reducing demand for gold as a safe haven accordingly."
In response, bond yields rose, with the 10-year yields climbing above 2.12%, hitting the highest level since July 2019, which weighed on gold. "Bond yields are also rising significantly in response to the supposed easing of tensions, which makes gold as a non-interest-bearing investment less attractive," Fritsch added. Read More
Gold trades under pressure but currently holding the 38.2% retracement as support
As of 3:30 PM, EST gold is trading off by $29.20, or 1.46%, with the April 2022 Comex contract currently fixed at $1956.00. On a technical basis, today’s low of $1952 is just below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, which is currently at $1953.80. The data set used for this retracement begins at the low created in December 2021 when gold hit $1752.60 and began a dynamic rally which took pricing to a high of $2078.20 during the first week of March 2022. If gold breaks below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, the next logical place that gold could trade to is the 50% retracement which is currently at $1915.40. Read More
Image Source: Kitco News
Gold and silver slip back ahead of the European open
Gold has dropped another 0.87% over hit $1933.50/oz. Silver is around 1% lower trading at $24.80/oz. In the rest of the commodities complex, copper is trading flat after a tough few sessions and spot WTI is 4% lower and back through $100/bbl.
In the Asia Pac area, the Shanghai Composite (-4.95%) and ASX (-0.73%) struggled with the Nikkei 225 rose 0.15%. Futures in Europe are pointing towards a negative cash open.
In FX markets, EUR/USD is the biggest mover overnight rising 0.65%. In the crypto space, BTC/USD fell 3.17% to reach $38,417. Read More
Gold & Silver March outlook - Monthly Review - 2022
Gold was firmer in February with the price bouncing back above $1,860 and towards the $1,900 level as appetite for safe-haven assets returned after NATO warned that Russia was continuing to build up its military presence near the border with Ukraine. When Russia did then invade Ukraine towards the end of the month, the gold price jumped above $1,970.
Geopolitical rallies tend not to last unless they manage to push prices to levels where momentum and technical buying kicks in (see chart). Consequently, gold gave back its momentum-based gains but has broken out from within the large symmetrical triangle that has dominated for 11-months.
Image Source: Kinesis
Looking further ahead, the London Bullion Market Association’s forecast survey, which was carried out before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, predicted prices to be mostly unchanged this year compared to 2021’s average price.
The main drivers, according to the 34 analysts surveyed, will be the Fed’s monetary policy, inflation, and the performance of equity markets. The LBMA survey did not consider geopolitical tension as a major driver, illustrating how a week can be a long time in markets!
Geopolitical tension is certainly gold’s key driver right now and this is supported by healthy fundamentals for the metal with strong jewellery demand from China during Chinese New Year, which was 12% higher than the previous year, according to Heraeus Precious Metals. 2022 is the Year of the Tiger with the World Gold Council suggesting that gold will be a vital asset to protect Chinese investors this year with the nation’s economy facing the dual threat of a slowdown in growth and rising inflation. Read More
Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
