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50% stock market crash 'wouldn't surprise me'; This is the biggest risk today - Ted Oakley
The biggest risk facing investors right now is the unsustainable stock market valuations that will eventually mean revert, said Ted Oakley, founder, and partner of Oxbow Advisors.
“From this level, if you look at your standard deviations of valuations relative to where the market is, and you just go back to an average of where it should be, that’s probably right now, somewhere between a 40% and 50% break,” Oakley told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News. Read More
Fitch updates its metals price forecasts
Fitch Ratings Agency has released its latest report updating its latest mining price assumptions for the future. When speaking about precious metals the report says "Our increased gold price assumptions reflect increased demand due to its ‘safe haven’ investment status, although it has moderated since the height of the pandemic due to better prospects of economic recoveries. We assume the price to re-base at USD1,300/oz in the long term." As you can see from the chart below the longer the period of time the lower the price assumptions go. Obviously, there are many variables to take into account over time. If the pandemic picks up again there would be a case for these asset predictions to be revised. Read More
Chair Powell Re-nominated, gold takes a dive
Monday, President Biden's nomination of Fed Chair Powell sent gold into a nosedive and reversed our long trading position to short today. The selling was sharp, fast, and constant. Silver and platinum were weak as well, but they haven't suffered reversals yet.
Silver and platinum are under pressure this morning and would reverse tomorrow if the pressure on metals continues. Gold, silver, and platinum were the first to react to the announcement and started selling hours ahead. Indicating they knew that Powell was going to remain the Chair of the U.S. central bank. Read More
Gold, silver getting hammered this week; bulls need to step up
Gold and silver prices are again solidly lower in midday U.S. trading Tuesday. Follow-through selling is featured after strong losses posted Monday. The bulls are fading fast and need to step up and show fresh power very soon to avoid serious near-term technical damage being inflicted and to revive their price uptrends on the daily bar charts. December gold was last down $21.90 at $1,784.40 and December Comex silver was last down $0.902 at $23.395 an ounce.
Working against the precious metals market bulls early this week are a generally strong U.S. dollar index, recently wilting crude oil prices, and rising U.S. Treasury bond yields—all amid no major geopolitical flare-ups that might support the safe-haven metals. Read More
Gold price faces a new wave of selling pressure watch support at $1,781 - analysts
The gold market is struggling to find some footing as prices slide further below $1,800 an ounce again and analysts are expecting to see some further pain in the near term.
The gold market continues to digest the White House's news that President Joe Biden will re-nominate Powell to be head of the Federal Reserve. Following the announcement, markets have increased their expectations that the U.S. central bank will tighten interest rates more aggressively in 2022.
December gold prices are lagging near their session lows, last trading at $1,786.50 an ounce, down more than 1% on the day. Read More
Platinum market heading for biggest surplus in years, WPIC says
The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) said on Wednesday the global platinum market would see a much larger surplus this year than it previously forecast and another big oversupply in 2022.
Platinum is used by automakers to neutralize harmful engine emissions and by jewelers, industries such as glassmakers, and for investment. Surpluses imply lower prices and deficits higher prices. Read More
Gold price see little movement following mixed flash PMI data
Gold prices continue to struggle to find any bullish traction following mixed momentum in the U.S. manufacturing and service sectors.
Tuesday, IHS Markit said its flash U.S. manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for November increased to 59.1, up from October’s reading of 58.4. The data was relatively in line with expectations. Read More
Gold's advantage over bitcoin
Before gold went on a run earlier this month, company financings in the precious metal space picked up, said CEO of Oreninc Kai Hoffmann.
Hoffmann spoke to Kitco in mid-November at the Deutsche Goldmesse show in Frankfurt, Germany. Oreninc tracks financings for juniors and miners. Read More
Gold and silver are mixed heading into the European open
Gold has moved slightly higher heading into the European session but this is largely a retracement from the fall seen over the last two sessions. The yellow metal is now trading at $1792/oz. Silver is -0.35% lower trading at $23.57/oz the lowest it has been trading since early November. In the rest of the commodities complex, copper is trading 0.24% higher and spot WTI is 0.27% in the black. Read More
German IFO data paints a pessimistic picture
German business morale deteriorated further in the month of November as the IFO survey showed. The report said "Supply chain bottlenecks are putting companies under real pressure, there is no sign of a let-up. A clear majority of companies plan price increases. Business sentiment for the services sector has notably deteriorated. Hospitality and tourism sectors face difficulty over the next 2-3 months. We expect GDP stagnation in Q4."
The research organization noted companies were less satisfied with their current business situation, and expectations became more pessimistic. Supply bottlenecks and the fourth wave of the coronavirus is challenging German companies. Just over the weekend, the German government warned that the nation could go into another lockdown if the situation does not improve. Read More
Gold & Silver Market Analysis – Wednesday 24th November
Kinesis Money Macroeconomic Analysis: Today’s market analysis firstly takes note of the recovery of gold. Expectations surrounding a quickening to tapering have been an obstacle to the gold price, as it is attempting to strengthen. The publication of recent US inflation figures could push the Federal Reserve to quicken the pace of quantitative easing in order to mitigate the growth of prices.
These pre-emptive expectations generated a further rally from the greenback. Furthermore, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against a basket of other currencies, has jumped above 96. Reaching its highest level since July 2020, the dollar now remains steady at 96.6.
Meanwhile, the US 10 Year Treasury yield accelerated to the previous rate of 1.60% – market sentiment must suspect that the first-rate raise from the Federal Reserve is imminent.
Earlier this week, Joe Biden renominated Jerome Powell as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, in what will be his second term. This decision does not imply that there will be any imminent change of monetary policy. Although, it has been understood by the markets as confirmation that restrictive monetary policies have only just begun.
Kinesis Money Gold Analysis - Read More
Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
