x
Image Source: Unsplash
Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Monday 11th October
Kinesis Money Macroeconomic Analysis
As the new week commences, US market recovery is showing some weakness. The nonfarm payrolls released on Friday were a disappointment for market analysts, revealing a minor growth of less than 200,000 in non-agriculture job positions. This was drastically lower than what was forecasted: an increase in around 500,000 units.
US unemployment is currently on the decline, experiencing an 18-month-low, as a result of many people exiting the job market. In a few words, US employment growth is slowing.
With only 3 weeks to go until the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, there is added uncertainty about what the Federal Reserve’s next decision will be. It still seems likely that the US central bank will start the process of reducing liquidity in December, having previously announced this in November’s meeting. Read More
Gold, silver manipulated, LOL
Friday saw another horrific jobs number which is exactly what the current administration wants. They want to keep stimulus as they work towards universal basic income and socialized medicine. Gold was rallying just before the number and exploded just after to $1,781.
By the end of the day, gold had closed lower on the day, proving the simple fact that the trend is your friend. Silver managed to hold onto small gains while platinum exploded. Overall, once again, the price action dictated the price. We remain short gold and silver expecting gold to test those flash crash lows. Read More
Gold SWOT: the world's top miners confident in their mission to eliminate emissions from operations by 2050
The best performing precious metal for the week was palladium, up 8.19% despite hedge funds taken their net-short position to record levels. Gold extended gains after a key U.S. jobs report fell well short of expectations in September, complicating a potential decision by the Federal Reserve to begin scaling back monetary support before year-end. The U.S. added fewer jobs than forecast for a second month in a row, pointing to weakness in the labor market recovery. Nonfarm payrolls increased 194,000 last month after an upwardly revised 366,000 gains in August, a Labor Department report showed Friday. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8%, partly reflecting fewer Americans looking for work. Meantime, average hourly earnings jumped. The dollar and Treasury yields slumped in response, boosting bullion's appeal. Read More
Gold technical analysis: The price is still stuck in a rut
Gold had a good spike following the non-farm payroll data last Friday but the move failed to sustain its momentum. The poor result lead some analysts to suggest that maybe the accommodative policy could hang around for longer but then the cold hard reality hit and the price came crashing back down.
From a technical analysis perspective, the support and resistance levels worked perfectly (click here). The price broke out of the rage and then halted at the green resistance zone to move back into the mean value area. Now the price is around the peak of the bell curve on the volume profile area on the right-hand side of the chart. Read More
Gold, silver tread water Monday, awaiting new fundamental inputs
Gold and silver prices are trading not far from unchanged in subdued midday U.S. trading Monday. Rising government bond yields recently and an appreciating U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market are bearish elements for the safe-haven metals. However, Nymex crude oil pushing to a seven-year high of $82.18 a barrel today is a bullish factor for the metals markets. Traders are awaiting a fresh fundamental spark, possibly to come from U.S. data out this week that includes inflation readings Wednesday and Thursday. December gold futures were last down $0.40 at $1,757.00. December Comex silver was last down $0.01 at $22.695 an ounce. Read More
Gold price outlook 'remains negative': get ready for $1,500 by end of 2022, says ABN AMRO
Gold's inability to move above $1,800 an ounce is taking its toll, with ABN AMRO now projecting for gold to end this year at $1,700 and next year at $1,500 an ounce.
"So far this year, gold prices have declined by 7.5%. The gold price outlook remains negative. We keep our year-end forecast at USD 1,700 per ounce and end of 2022 at USD 1,500 per ounce," ABN AMRO senior precious metals strategist Georgette Boele said in a report.
Since June, gold has been stuck in a downward trend, with stronger U.S. dollar and higher U.S. Treasury yields keeping pressure on prices. Read More
Could there be another reason gold has been under selling pressure?
Gold prices continue to drift lower as the U.S. dollar continues to gain strength and market sentiment favors the high likelihood that the Federal Reserve will continue on its course to begin tapering is to asset purchases as early as November of this year.
Many analysts have cited three primary variables for the recent downside in gold, the two that we have just mentioned a strong dollar and Federal Reserve tapering. The third catalyst is rising yields on 10-year Treasury notes. That being said, U.S. 10-year Treasury notes are not trading today due to a holiday, but they have been rallying to higher yields recently. The higher yields are a direct result of market sentiment leaning towards the Federal Reserve beginning the process of tapering their asset purchases this year. Read More
Gold and silver move higher heading into the European open
Gold and silver have both risen overnight. Both major precious metals are around half a percent higher leading into the European open. Elsewhere in the commodities complex, copper is 1% lower while spot WTI has risen 0.26%. Read More
Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
