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Gold & Silver Market Analysis for Monday 18th October
Kinesis Money Macroeconomic Analysis
Last week the majority of stock indices finished in green, confirming the ‘risk-on’ mode seen in the last 18 months. This means that we are in phase where investors prefer buying riskier assets.
The main bullish market driver came from the US with data confirming that core retail sales had surpassed expectations. In fact, analysts forecasted a decline of 0.2% for September 2021, while the official data certified a growth of 0.7%. Moreover, data collected in August revealed an increase from 0.7% to 0.9%.
When just two weeks remain until the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the majority of investors are now expecting a start to tapering by the end of the year, with an official announcement to come from the upcoming meeting (scheduled for the 2nd – 3rd November).
Analyzing the economic calendar, the new week has started with China’s GDP below expectations. In the next few days, there will be some notable quarterly earnings to consider from companies like Tesla, Netflix, and Intel.
In Europe, the main ‘market mover’ seems to be the inflation report, which will reveal the price growth within the Eurozone and the possible time scale of tapering to be instigated by the ECB (European Central Bank). Read More
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Russian gold and FX reserves hit a record level
Russia's FX and gold reserves have been increasing in the last few years but it seems that inflationary woes mean the nation has been stocking up on the yellow metal again. The Russian central bank has been raising interest rates to try and combat the issue but stagflation seems to still be on the cards. This now means that the Russians are hedging against this problem by increasing the amount of gold it holds. Read More
Gold and silver buy the dip
Gold and silver reversed trends last week but were under heavy pressure on Friday. One of the biggest faults with traders and investors is that they get too emotional when markets go against them. The keys to remember are in an uptrend; you want to buy at support levels, in a downtrend sell resistance. Read More
Gold SWOT: gold rose to highest as Treasury Yields and the dollar slumped amid inflation concerns
The best performing precious metal for the week was platinum, up 2.92%, largely moving with the Thursday surge in precious metals. Palladium surged to the highest level in a month as industrial users took advantage of low prices even as the ongoing semiconductor crunch dampens the outlook for auto demand.
Royal Gold streaming sales were 64,000 gold equivalent ounces, 8% higher than consensus. Outperformance versus consensus was attributable due to higher silver sales, where the company previously reported deferred ounces from Pueblo Viejo which would increase following recovery improvements at the operation. Read More
Gold technical analysis points to lower levels for now
After a great start to the last week, gold managed to lose some of its shine after some impressive data from the U.S. in the form of retail sales. Now $1800 seems to be a bit of a line in the sand and the bulls need to gather some momentum for another break and close above the psychological zone. Read More
Stagflation might not be enough to save gold - Bank of America
The gold market remains trapped below $1,800 an ounce and even the rising risk of stagflation will not be enough to support prices in the short term, according to analysts at Bank of America.
In a report published last week, analysts note that the precious metal continues to face significant headwinds as central banks push forward with plans to normalize monetary policies.
Gold prices last traded at $1,765.40 an ounce, down 0.16% on the day.
The analysts said that what makes the current stagflation threat different from other periods that were bullish for gold is that the labor market continues to hold up relatively well. They noted that not all stagflation periods are the same. Read More
Gold, silver down slightly in quieter markets day
Gold and silver prices are slightly down in lackluster midday U.S. trading Monday. It’s a quieter start to the trading week and the metals market traders are awaiting new fundamental information to help drive the markets. December gold futures were last down $2.50 at $1,765.70. December Comex silver was last down $0.069 at $23.28 an ounce. Read More
Hedge funds staying away from gold and silver, focus on tightening monetary policies
Hedge funds remain hesitant to jump back into the gold market as the Federal Reserve looks to tighten its monetary policy in the face of growing inflation pressures, according to analysts evaluating the latest trade data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Analysts note that although gold prices have managed to hold support above $1,750 an ounce, it has not attracted enough investor interest for a sustainable push above $1,800 an ounce.
The CFTC disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for the week ending Oct. 12 showed money managers increased their speculative gross long positions in Comex gold futures by 4,923 contracts to 131,668. At the same time, short positions increased by 570 contracts to 73,149. Read More
Gold trades to $1760.30 before slightly recovering
Gold pricing continues to be affected by rising yields in U.S. 10-year Treasury notes. Market sentiment continues to be under the assumption that as early as mid-November the Federal Reserve will begin to taper their asset purchases of $120 billion monthly. The most recent news is the pace at which they will taper. According to the statement released last week of the last FOMC meeting, they plan to reduce their monthly purchases by $15 billion each month. Read More
Gold and silver move higher heading into the European open
Gold has continued to recover overnight after falling for two sessions in a row. The yellow metal now trades 0.75% higher at $1777/oz. Silver has moved 1.75% in the right direction to trade at $23.59/oz. Elsewhere in the commodities complex copper has risen another 1.90% and WTI has moved 0.79% into the black.
Risk sentiment was pretty positive overnight. The Nikkei 225 (0.65%) and Shanghai Composite (0.69%) both climbed while the ASX bucked the trend to drop -0.08%. Futures in Europe are pointing towards a positive cash open. Read More
Global metals exploration budgets jump 35%
Across the board, the bull market in base metals has helped boost investment since the COVID-19 pandemic took hold of the markets. S&P Global Market Intelligence recently conducted a report looking at the growth of investment in the sector and found that miners and financiers continue to see good value as investments are still increasing.
The report noted, the sector enjoyed a 35 percent rise in global nonferrous exploration budget year-on-year, jumping from $8.3 billion ($11.2 billion) in 2020 to $11.2 billion ($15.1 billion) in 2021. Read More
Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
