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Stock Market Forecast
As we correctly forecast in last month’s edition of our FunnyBiz Wise Investor Report, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing above the Dow 18,000 mark, with the Dow Closing on Monday April 18, at 18,004. The Dow climbed even higher on Tuesday & Wednesday of this week, but today, Thursday April 21, is back down just a bit below 18,000, Closing today at 17,982.52.
The previous All Time High for the Dow was set almost one year ago in May, 2015, with the Dow Closing at 18,312. See the 1-year Chart of the Dow below for a visual of where the Market has been and where it is now.
The Stock Markets are winding down the April Quarterly Earnings Reporting Season which thus far has had generally a positive effect on the Markets. The next Quarterly Earnings Reporting Season will be in July of this year and if Corporate Earnings continue generally to meet or exceed expectations, we may see a Summer Rally peaking in July or August of this year. This is also a Presidential Election Year which historically fares well for the Stock Markets. Though one need only to look back to the 2008 Crash to realize this "rule” is far from certain.
We forecast that over the next one to two months, the Stock Markets will, of course fluctuate up and down, but with a general sideways trend, with the Dow trading above and below the 18,000 mark. This generally sideways trend for the Markets should serve well our Options Strategy of Covered Call Writing.
The Big Question moving forward is will the Dow re-test the All Time High of 18,312? This re-test of the previous High may well take place between now and mid-July. If the Dow re-tests her All Time High of 18,312, will the Economic and Geo-Political factors present at the time push the Dow over her previous High with enough Momentum to carry the Dow Up and Onward toward Dow 19,000? Or will current events "rattle the Markets” with fear resulting, not only in failing to break forcefully above her previous High, but to pull-back in retreat with a significant collapse of 10% to 20%, or perhaps even more, as the 1-year Chart of the Dow below shows already happened twice in the past twelve months. If either of these scenarios Present themselves, we may take advantage of the opportunity by Buying Call Options on the Dow which increase in value as the Dow rises or by Buying Put Options on the Dow which increase in value as the Dow declines.
Other major factors that could impact the Markets this Summer, fueling a Summer Rally or suffocating one, are that the Republican National Convention for nominating the Republican Party’s 2016 Presidential Candidate is being held in Cleveland, Ohio, on July 18-21, which either will go smoothly or blow-up into chaos with severe consequences for the Republican Party and the nation. Just four days later the Democratic Party’s National Convention convenes from July 25-28, which right now looks like Hillary Clinton has the nomination as the Democrats 2016 Presidential Candidate sown up; possibly resulting in the Democratic Presidential Candidate campaigning from then until November with the black cloud hanging over her head of an FBI recommendation for criminal prosecution related to Hillary’s mishandling of Top Secret & Super Top Secret documents on her private unsecured server; not to mention the forth-coming findings regarding the Benghazi, Libya Congressional investigation into the Terrorist attack on 9-11 that resulted in the murder of America’s Ambassador to Libya along with three other patriotic American heroes. One way or the other, July will either bring confidence to the Stock Markets or shake the Markets with fear.
Keep your eyes on Dow 18,312 and on the July Presidential Conventions!
For now, we will engage the Market with our Covered Call Option Writing strategy with Call Options having a May, 20, 2016 Expiration Date.
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