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Gold & Silver Review & Outlook – June 2023
June looks set to be a defining month for how well 2023 proves for gold.
Markets feel as though they are at a crossover point with some of the gloom from the first half of the year starting to lift, and the worst ravages of inflation seemingly now having passed.
That said, at the time of writing the biggest potential shock to markets hadn’t yet been resolved, the prospect of the US defaulting on its debt. However, talks look to be heading in a positive direction with the market expecting an agreement to be found that would avoid this catastrophic scenario.
Assuming June does indeed start with the US Congress and then the Senate approving the bill concocted by President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy then the biggest question mark having over markets will be removed and attention can instead switch to the persistent theme of inflation and how central banks around the world are tackling it. Read More
Gold Price News: Gold Set For Monthly Drop on Improving Market Confidence
Gold is set for its first monthly decline in three months with today’s slight recovery to around $1,960 an ounce still leaving it below where it started in May.
After surging to near-record highs at the start of the month, May has ended with optimism slowly creeping back into markets that the worst of inflation is behind the world’s economies and increasing confidence that the US will indeed reach an agreement on its debt ceiling and avoid a default.
As such with investors and traders’ attitudes to risk increasing, gold is struggling to make headway but the fact that it is still able to trade at such elevated levels, with $1,960 a level it has only traded at a handful of times in its long history, shows that there is still plenty of caution among market participants. Read More
Silver Price News: Silver Hovers Near $23 Fearing More Fed Rate Hikes
Silver is hovering around $23 an ounce as the precious metal tries to find support around this threshold after sliding almost $3 an ounce from its peak at the start of the month.
Where silver heads from here will be largely determined by the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate meeting in the middle of June. After making some considerable gains when it seemed likely that the Fed may have paused on its interest rate hike cycle, the continued hawkish rhetoric from officials from the US central bank has raised the prospect of another increase in June, particularly if the country’s jobs figures remain strong and provide the Fed with some leeway. Read More
Gold prices holding recent gains as U.S. JOLTS shows job openings increase to 10.10 million
The gold market is holding on to modest gains even as the U.S. labor market remains healthy, with the number of jobs available rising more than expected.
Job openings, a measure of labor demand, increased to 10.10 million on the last day of May, the Labor Department said in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, on Wednesday.
The data beat expectations as economists were looking for job openings to drop to 9.41 million.
The gold market is not seeing much reaction to the latest labor market data as prices continue to bounce from Tuesday's two-month low. June gold futures last traded at $1,962.40 an ounce, up 0.22% on the day. Read More
Gold, silver rise on safe-haven demand as U.S. debt vote looms
Gold and silver prices are higher near midday Wednesday, boosted by some safe-haven buying just ahead of U.S. lawmakers voting to extend the U.S. government's debt limit. While the majority of the marketplace expects the debt deal to pass both the U.S. House and Senate, there is just uncertainty over the outcome to produce some trader and investor anxiety. Falling U.S. Treasury yields this week are also working in favor of the gold and silver market bulls. August gold was last up $10.80 at $1,988.30 and July silver was up $0.361 at $23.60.
Technically, August gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices are still in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,900.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,993.10 and then at $2,000.00. First support is seen at today's low of $1,971.80 and then at this week's low of $1,949.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
Image Source: Kitco News
July silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $22.00. First resistance is seen at $23.80 and then at $24.00. Next support is seen at today's low of $23.16 and then at $23.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0. Read More
Image Source: Kitco News
Gold is back on its way to $2,000 an ounce, driven by safe-haven demand - Saxo Bank
The gold market is seeing a solid bounce from Tuesday's drop to a two-month low as the precious metal continues to outperform the broader commodity index.
In an interview with Kitco News, Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said that gold's three-week correction has ended and the market is on its way back to above $2,000 an ounce even as weak commodity prices signal growing recession fears.
Hansen's bullish outlook on gold comes as the Bloomberg Commodity Index has dropped 13% this year, led by silver, copper and oil. Meanwhile, gold prices are up nearly 6% this year, last trading at $1,972.70 an ounce.
Hansen said that although weak commodity prices could cool down inflation pressures in the near-term, renewed safe-haven demand remains a healthy driver for gold.
"Commodities are struggling because of the economic outlook. If the economy is as bad as commodities are pricing in, then the Federal Reserve cannot raise interest rates indefinitely," he said. "In this environment, gold prices can easily get back to $2,000 an ounce. We are not out of the woods just yet. A move back above $2,000 will definitely improve sentiment." Read More
U.S. debt ceiling debate highlights U.S. fiscal imbalances and supports gold's push to $3,000 - CrossBorder Capital
An impending resolution to the U.S. debt ceiling won't end the nation's fiscal woes, and gold is expected to benefit significantly, according to one research firm.
In a report published earlier this week, analysts at CrossBorder Capital reiterated their call for gold prices to push to $3,000 as deficit spending in Western economies, led by the U.S., continues to grow. Looking past the current debt ceiling debate, the analysts said the U.S. Treasury is expected to sell up to $2 trillion in debt over the next decade.
"If investors' concern over the often fraught and protracted debate between Treasury and Congress extends to a future failed Treasury auction, surely the US dollar would skid and gold prices soar? This is a key risk," the analysts said. "The bottom line is that rapidly deteriorating fiscal arithmetic, generally across the advanced economies, threatens faster inflation."
The analysts said that gold will remain an attractive investment asset as central banks will be forced to end their quantitative tightening measures and become buyers-of-last-resort to fund government spending.
"We are moving into a new era where Central Banks may have no choice but to create monetary inflations to fund future structural fiscal deficits. These deficits, in turn, result from escalating mandatory spending demands and tax bases ravaged by new technologies and the changing mix of the labour force," the analysts said. "At the same time, the luxury of being able to co-opt foreign savings to help domestic funding looks less likely given growing geopolitical tensions. In short, we face a world of permanent QE and secular monetary inflation." Read More
Gold posts first loss in three months, but markets focus on Fed's 'hawkish pause'
The gold market posted its first monthly loss since February, wrapping May down about $36. As markets eye the crucial Congress vote to lift the debt ceiling, some Federal Reserve speakers are pushing for a "hawkish pause" at the June 13-14 meeting.
The House of Representatives is set to vote on a bill to lift the $31.4 trillion debt limit on Wednesday - a critical step to avoid a default before the June 5 deadline provided by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Voting is said to start late afternoon and end before 9 pm ET time.
"The far wings of both parties are expected to show some resistance, but this bill is expected to advance," said OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya. "The Senate might have some difficulty passing the bill, but expectations are elevated that the U.S. will avoid defaulting on its debt."
For gold, a debt deal does not necessarily mean lower prices, Moya said in a note Wednesday. "The details behind the proposed piece of legislation include significantly lower spending, which will be a major blow to the economic outlook and likely trigger a much harder-hitting recession," he noted. Read More
US House passes debt ceiling deal as default threat looms
WASHINGTON, May 31 (Reuters) - A divided U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill to suspend the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling on Wednesday, with majority support from both Democrats and Republicans to overcome opposition from hardline conservatives and avoid a catastrophic default.
The Republican-controlled House voted 314-117 to send the legislation to the Senate, which must enact the measure and get it to President Joe Biden's desk before a Monday deadline, when the federal government is expected to run out of money to pay its bills.
Biden expects to have the bill on his desk in time to avoid a default that would cripple the U.S. economy and unsettle world financial markets.
The measure, a compromise between Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, drew opposition from 71 hardline Republicans. That would normally be enough to block partisan legislation, but 165 Democrats backed the measure and pushed it through. Read More
It’s Time to Prepare Both Financially and Mentally. Feat. Peter Grandich
In this week’s episode of Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined by renowned author Peter Grandich who offers a holistic approach to anchoring oneself to personal responsibility and financial decision-making in a world of debt reliance.
The precious metals experts examine whether the possible US debt default could ever be paid back in the end-of-the-dollar scenario and contemplate the changing behaviours of modern society in contrast to traditional norms and values.
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Disclaimer: These articles are provided for informational purposes only. They are not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or any other advice.
