After the victory is before the fight

After the victory is before the fight
The ANC won the election in South Africa. The real challenge lies ahead of President Ramaphosa.
Cheering supporters of the ANC celebrate the election victory.
South Africa has had years of economic decline and increasing corruption and governance problems. In the presidential elections last week, the electorate has now sent a clear message to the ANC that while it still largely supports it, its patience is slowly waning. It was the sixth parliamentary election since the end of apartheid in South Africa that took place on May 8, at the same time as elections to the provincial parliaments in the nine provinces. 48 parties took part in the election, 14 of which will be represented in the next parliament.

The ANC (African National Congress) has held its absolute majority and will be represented in the next parliament by 230 MPs with 57.51 percent of the vote (2014: 249). At the provincial level, the ANC was able to obtain a majority in eight of the nine provinces despite some significant loss of votes, but the 50.19 percent vote in Gauteng (the economic center of South Africa with Pretoria and Johannesburg) means only one vote majority.

The liberal Democractic Alliance (DA) remains the strongest opposition party with 20.76 percent of the vote and 84 seats in parliament, even though it lost 5 seats compared to the 2014 election. (2014: 89). The DA was able to maintain the majority in the Western Cape Province (with Cape Town) relatively clearly. The radical left-wing populist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) party has gained 4.44 percent compared to the last 2014 elections and will have 44 seats (2014: 25). From the perspective of many analysts, it is the real winner of the election; their populist, nationalist propaganda particularly appealed to young voters. In the simultaneous elections to the provincial parliaments, the EFF replaced the DA as the strongest opposition party in three provinces.

Less than 50 percent of those eligible to vote actually took part in the election.

The Inkatha Fredom Party (IFP) also gained four more seats in its 10 seats in parliament in 2014, which was mainly due to the good performance in KwaZulu Natal. Surprisingly, the conservative Freedom Front Plus (Vryheidsfront Plus, VF +), largely elected by the white rural population, won 10 seats (2014: 4). VF + was primarily able to mobilize former DA voters; their gain in votes among the white population is also a direct consequence of EFF's populist demand for land expropriation without compensation. The remaining 18 seats in parliament are spread over 9 games.

The fact that the two main political parties, the ANC and the opposition party DA, are losing ground is not only an expression of frustration with the internal dynamics of the political organizations themselves, but also as a consequence of the tougher macroeconomic and social conditions under which GDP has declined , unemployment is stubbornly close to 30 percent (youth unemployment is over 50 percent) and poverty and inequality are growing.

Voter turnout was only 65.99 percent of registered voters. In 2014, 73.48 percent of the registered electorate actually voted. (1994: 88 percent). If you consider that just under 26.8 million of the actually eligible 35.9 million South Africans have registered, it means that less than 50 percent of those eligible to vote actually took part in the election. Particularly noticeable is the high number of young South Africans under 30, of whom around 50 percent have not registered.

The pre-election predictions ranged from 49 percent to 60+ percent voting for the ANC. Nine years of systematic corruption over the robbery of state institutions and companies (“State Capture”) under the presidency of Jacob Zuma have resulted in South Africans becoming frustrated, disappointed and hopelessly turning away from the ANC.

The fact that the ANC once again achieved a clear majority in the current elections is primarily attributable to the image of the President.

In this context, the gain of 57.51 percent of the vote is definitely a success. The ANC's share of votes has steadily decreased since the first elections in free South Africa and fell below 60 percent for the first time. But you have to consider that the ANC performed even worse in the 2016 local elections (at that time it was below 54 percent). The fact that there was still a clear majority of the ANC in the current elections is primarily due to the image of President Cyril Ramaphosa. At the end of 2017, he won the presidency of the ANC in a close battle vote; in early 2018, after Jacob Zuma's resignation, he also became the country's president.

Since then, Ramaphosa has repeatedly stressed that the reforms needed to boost the stagnating economy and reduce unemployment and poverty are only possible if systematic corruption and enrichment are ended and the guilty are no longer given a place in responsible positions. He has already launched various commissions of inquiry, which have more and more evidence against former and incumbent ministers. Obviously, these measures have contributed to the fact that a clear majority of voters still voted ANC; in the run-up to the elections, the approval rate for Cyril Pamaphosa was significantly higher than that for the ANC.

However, since Ramaphosa's short election to chair the ANC, the ANC has been split into two camps; that of the reformers around Cyril Ramaphosa and that of the so-called traditionalists around the general secretary Ace Magashule and former Zuma followers. These have benefited from the corrupt regime under Jacob Zuma for years and now have to fear legal consequences. In the next few days, the organs of the ANC will be discussed on the composition of the next cabinet; while the reformers want to significantly downsize and rejuvenate the cabinet, the traditionalists are critical of this. The appointment of the future cabinet will show whether Cyril Ramaphosa can unite the ANC as a whole and unite its reform course or whether the group around Ace Magashule will continue to be prominently represented in the leadership of the ANC and the government. On May 22, 2019, the new parliament will be constituted and the president will be elected by the deputies.