Ausbreitung als größtes Risiko für die Weltwirtschaft

Aside from the cost of containing the epidemic and health costs, various areas of the Chinese economy will suffer damage as the virus spread. For example in aviation, tourism, stationary retail and personal services. If the epidemic continues beyond the holidays in China, companies, schools, universities and authorities would also have to remain closed.

With an increased spread beyond national borders, similar economic damage would also be expected in the neighboring countries and other countries concerned. Especially when the epidemic spreads to a worldwide pandemic. This could cause the recently slightly positive early indicators of the OECD for the global economy to tip over again and a mild and temporary recession, among other things. a. in Germany and the USA.

Conclusion and outlook
The economic impact on the location of the outbreak of the epidemic, Wuhan, will be severe in the short term. The metropolis of Hubei Province, which has a population of 11 million, is home to the most important domestic automotive and steel industries. Known as the "thoroughfare of China", the city functions as a traffic and industrial center for central China and is the political, economic and commercial center of the region.

Does the annual wave of travel on the occasion of the Chinese New Year celebrations lead to an increased spread of the virus by people who cannot be identified as infected (due to the incubation period) or who individually handle the barriers with bicycles, motorbikes, cars, boats or on foot , then the topic could dominate the headlines for some time. The longer the government's emergency measures paralyze the entire Hubai industrial region, the greater the local damage will be in the end.