: It’s the stock exchange, stupid

The corona virus is becoming a problem for the US president: it jeopardizes his chances of being re-elected.

Donald Trump follows the rashes in the financial markets as closely as a Wall Street professional. Because the US President has declared the stock exchange as his personal barometer of success. Up until a few days ago, he barely missed an opportunity to praise stock market records as a result of his economic policy. But after the recent panic in the markets due to the spread of the corona virus, this affinity could become a danger: US stocks lost over four trillion dollars in total value within a few days.

The economy is an important focus for every US president. Bill Clinton's campaign manager once said it with the now famous saying "It's the economy, stupid!" to the point. But the economy is not the stock market, and no president has been as fixated on Wall Street as Trump.

During his tenure, he logged in on Twitter more than 140 times to comment on market developments. In January alone, he dedicated ten tweets to the stock exchange that relate the increase in value at US companies to Trump's business-friendly measures. Even at events, he never tires of leading the stock exchange records. Rising prices on national wealth had contributed over $ 12 trillion, he said in his speech on the state of the nation in early February. He exaggerated just as much as three weeks later when he declared shortly before the break-in that the courses had increased over 80 percent with him as president. Taking the timing of his election in November 2016 as the starting point, the index of the largest and most important US companies, the S&P 500, by 60 percent by mid-February. Trump also likes to tell the story of a man named Henry, whose wife fell in love with him again after Trump's equity funds reached new heights.

For Trump, men like Henry - fictional or not - are more important than ever. Because his re-election largely depends on how his voters assess their personal economic situation. A few months ago, analysts at the rating agency Moody's calculated how likely Trump's victory would be in November. In an election in which economic factors played a role, the president would "flatten" the competition, it is said. This shows "how important the prevailing economic mood in private households is likely to be in the upcoming election".

It is understandable that Trump now wants to hide the threat of the corona epidemic . Just ten days ago, the president wrote on Twitter that the corona virus was under control in the United States. He ended his tweet with a encouraging message: "In my opinion, the stock market is starting to look very good!"

This article comes from the ZEIT No. 11/2020. You can read the entire issue here.

This was followed by the worst trading week since the 2008 financial crisis. When the losses went into the trillions, the president blamed the debacle on his favorite opponents, the media and the opposition. At an election event in South Carolina, a visibly upset Trump said the whole thing was "the Democrats' latest hoax" after the Russia investigation and impeachment process