Konjunkturprognosen für Deutschland

Regardless of whether it is a recession or an upswing, the most accurate predictions of economic development form the basis for many plans by the state, such as the budget. The current estimates of important institutions for Germany at a glance.

How the economy will develop in the near future can only be estimated. Governments, international organizations and economic researchers regularly try to predict economic developments as precisely as possible using various assumptions. Among other things, forecasts form the basis for the tax estimate and budget planning of the state.

The forecasts for economic growth fluctuate very strongly in some cases and are regularly adjusted up or down over the course of a year. An overview of the current forecasts for the development of the German gross domestic product (GDP).

Forecasts on the development of the German gross domestic product
Source forecast from forecast for 2019 forecast for 2020
Federal government October 2019 + 0.5% + 1.0%
EU Commission July 2019 + 0.5% + 1.4%
International Monetary Fund October 2019 + 0.5% + 1.2%
OECD September 2019 + 0.5% + 0.6%
Bundesbank June 2019 + 0.6% + 1.2%
Expert Council for the Assessment of Macroeconomic Development November 2019 + 0.5% + 0.9%
Joint diagnosis of the leading economic research institutes October 2019 + 0.5% + 1.1%
German Institute for Economic Research DIW September 2019 + 0.5% + 1.4%
Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich September 2019 + 0.5% + 1.2%
Kiel Institute for the World Economy September 2019 + 0.4% + 1.0%
Cologne Institute for Economic Research September 2019 + 0.5% + 0.8%
Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut September 2019 + 0.6% + 1.4%
Institute for Economic Research Halle IWH September 2019 + 0.5% + 1.1%
Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Research IMK September 2019 + 0.4% + 0.7%
Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung RWI September 2019 + 0.4% + 0.9%
Status: 06.11.2019
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interview

"There are no direct hits"
In an interview with tagesschau.de, Chief Economist at Commerzbank, Jörg Krämer, answers the most important questions about the origins and importance of economic forecasts. | more

More on this topic:
Interview: "There are no direct hits in economic forecasts"
How researchers try to predict the economy (2/24/2009)
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